Tropical Cyclone Imani

[Somerset Squall]

TC 21S has formed from invest 90S, located 450 miles west of Cocos Island. Intensity is 35kts at present. Convection has persisted through the day over an increasingly well defined LLC, prompting the upgrade. 21S is in a favourable environment for intensification over the next few days, with low shear, warm sea temperatures and favourable outflow. 21S is moving southwards along the western periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the east and will continue to do so over the next few days. This will eventually take 21S over cooler waters which will initiate weakening. JTWC are currently forecasting a peak of 60kts before this occurs. 21S should not affect land.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate.

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

21S has strengthened to 45kts and has been named Imani. Imani has about another 60hrs to intensify in low shear and very warm sea temps (around 29-30C). After which, the southerly track will take Imani over colder waters and higher shear. I think Imani could reach cat 1 status before this happens. As you can see in Cookie's image, the storm is well organised at present with very deep convection over the centre, which is a good base for further intensification.

[Cookie]

up to 50 kts now according to NRL

[Somerset Squall]

up to 50 kts now according to NRL

Indeed. Thanks for posting the images Cookie, it shows the improvement in Imani's convectional organisation well. If Imani keeps this up, I can see JTWC's forecast peak of 55kts being too low. As I said earlier, I would punt for a cat 1 intensity (65-80kts) to be the peak. We shall see as always

[Cookie]

agreed 55 kts to low

nice image here of Imani

[Somerset Squall]

As we expected, JTWC undercooked the intensity forecast for Imani a little, as the cyclone is now a 65kt, cat 1 on the SS scale. An intermittent eye has been visabloe on satellite imagery, embedded in a central dense overcast. However, Imani has probably peaked as shear levels are much higher just south of the system which is where Imani is heading. This should lead to a weakening trend ultimately leading to dissipation over open water in around 48hrs time.

[Cookie]

deffiantly been an intresting little system

[Somerset Squall]

Agreed Cookie, and it has put up a good fight against the increasing shear so far. Intensity rose further this morning to 70kts as the rugged eye became slightly better defined. However, the eye has all but dissapeared now though central convection is still fairly strong and the circulation is still packing sustained winds of 65kts. Imani is expected to rapidly weaken though with dissipation occuring later tomorrow.

[Somerset Squall]

Imani has weakened to 45kts in a strongly sheared environment and sharply declining sea surface temperatures. Convection has sheared south of the LLC, leaving it almost entirely exposed. Imani will continue to drift south-southeastwards and dissipate within the next 24hrs.

[Cookie]

fading into nothingness.