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April CET


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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

It is still possible to get a cold April, and the Aprils of 1998 and 2000 were both about 1C below the long-term average in parts of northern and western Britain although CET-land was much nearer average.

Sub 8C CETs occurred in Aprils 1998, 2000 and 2001.

Most recent Aprils have had the issue that cold weather hasn't generally coincided with a calendar month and so cold weather in one part of an April has been offset by warm weather elsewhere such as in 2008.

There have been no markedly cold synoptics this month- yes we're currently in a northerly but it's a pretty half-hearted one with the main thrust of the northerly to the north and east.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Sub 8C CETs occurred in Aprils 1998, 2000 and 2001.

April 2008 had a sub 8C CET at 7.9.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Although the Aprils of 1998, 2000, 2001 and 2008 had CETs below 8*C, they were only marginally below the long term average - certainly nothing of note if you are looking for a cold month. The absence of cold Aprils in the last 20 years is really quite startling. In 21 years not a single April with a CET 0.5 or more below average! It makes me wonder if we can see a cold April again.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

I hope so. smile.gif

It looked like at one point that this April was going to be quite a cool or cold one, but April 2010 is looking more and more possible of becoming an above average month with more of noticeable warmer trend for next week. Mind you, I suppose it would be fair to say that the North has had quite a fair share of cold days with some warm periods mixed in, but I think if I had to have another guess to what this April's CET might be, my new estimate would be around 9.8*C.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I hope so. smile.gif

It looked like at one point that this April was going to be quite a cool or cold one, but April 2010 is looking more and more possible of becoming an above average month with more of noticeable warmer trend for next week. Mind you, I suppose it would be fair to say that the North has had quite a fair share of cold days with some warm periods mixed in, but I think if I had to have another guess to what this April's CET might be, my new estimate would be around 9.8*C.

9.8 degrees probably too high, somthing close to 9 degrees looks more likely.

Indeed in Scotland it has been a month of contrasts, beginning on a cold note quickly turning mild if not warm with highs close to 20 degrees but more recently it has been rather cold, maxima of single digit figures and quite cold nights - very continental indicative of high pressure domination.

Temps have been less topsy turvy the further south you go, but we have seen some quite large diurnal ranges in recent days and I suspect minima in the CET zone so far has been fairly close to average, it has been the maxima which has been mostly above but not always, largely thanks to lots of sunshine.

Today is an interesting day, we are under some really quite cold air with very low dewpoints, even with abundant sunshine many places have struggled to see double figures especially in the northern half, a few more days like today this month would have certainly helped to keep the CET much closer to average.

I'm enjoying the large diurnal temp ranges that this month so far has delivered.

Edited by damianslaw
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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Although the Aprils of 1998, 2000, 2001 and 2008 had CETs below 8*C, they were only marginally below the long term average - certainly nothing of note if you are looking for a cold month. The absence of cold Aprils in the last 20 years is really quite startling. In 21 years not a single April with a CET 0.5 or more below average! It makes me wonder if we can see a cold April again.

You have basically repeated your earlier post in this thread from a few days ago just to repeat the same 'Modern April' myth, and in full knowledge that others have responded in kind to say that it is a myth. Obviously a deliberate ploy.

Edited by North Sea Snow Convection
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Although the Aprils of 1998, 2000, 2001 and 2008 had CETs below 8*C, they were only marginally below the long term average - certainly nothing of note if you are looking for a cold month. The absence of cold Aprils in the last 20 years is really quite startling. In 21 years not a single April with a CET 0.5 or more below average! It makes me wonder if we can see a cold April again.

I don't know what it is NEB but you do have this habit of clinging onto something until you wrung it to death, if it wasn't cold zonality and January 1984, it was warm Septembers and lack of subsequent cold winters. The alarm bell is ringing in my head that you have found another hobby horse to ride.

Lets just use some simple logic and extrapolation here. All these months were at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average in the last 5 years

Jan 2009, 2010

Feb 2010

Mar 2006

Jul 2007

Oct 2008

Dec 2008, 2009

If these months have managed to achieve it in the last 5 years, then you can extrapolate from that position to suggest that is still possible to get an April of at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

It was only a few months back a few were questioning whether a syb 3.0c month was acievable. Then we got a sub 3.0c winter lol.

It is astonishing how April has been lacking any persistant cold. April is a funny month, there was a major consequetive run above 10.0c in the 1940s.

Edited by Optimus Prime
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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

April to me is a month that has changed more than any other IMO since 2000 excluding 2008 and 2000.

Cold spells/snaps were more potent in the 90`s and gave much colder evenings after snow showers during daytime and no thawing but freezing,still daylight just before dusk, must be thinking of the 1995 potent cold snap 2nd half.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

It now looks like being a well above average month and its come at just the right time to end what has been a relatively long run of below average months. And long may it continue up until September.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

April to me is a month that has changed more than any other IMO since 2000 excluding 2008 and 2000.

Cold spells/snaps were more potent in the 90`s and gave much colder evenings after snow showers during daytime and no thawing but freezing,still daylight just before dusk, must be thinking of the 1995 potent cold snap 2nd half.

We've been very close to seeing some widespread quite significant cold weather during the past week or so, alas the heights currently over us didn't ridge far enough west to allow what would have been a very cold northerly spell. Indeed Scotland right now is rather cold with maxima in the range of 6-8 degrees and some snow likely to quite low levels tomorrow. Here in the far north of england average mean temps during the last week have been below thanks to some cold nights. This April is not going to be a particularly warm month.

We've benefited from high pressure being in the right position to deliver some prolonged warmth in recent Aprils' and any cold northerlies have been relatively short lived even if quite potent i.e. 2000 and 2008.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I think as far as cold/snow is concerned May has changed a lot more than April. I mentioned in the Model Output Discussion thread, for instance, that sleet/snow occurred fairly widely at low levels in the Mays of 1981, 1982, 1987, 1993, 1995 and 1997, and to a lesser extent 1989 (surprising given how warm/dry/sunny the month as a whole was) and 1996. In contrast, since 1997 there have been no such Mays. There have also been no colder-than-average Mays, even using the 1971-2000 baseline, since 1996, and only 1997 and 2005 were close to average.

The biggest change with April, to my mind, has been an increase in the number of completely snowless Aprils across lowland Britain. If I remember rightly the Aprils of 2002, 2004, 2007 and 2009 all passed by without a flake of sleet or snow falling anywhere in mainland Britain at low levels (though some of the Scottish islands might have had some). None of the Aprils of the 1990s managed this- 1993 and 1997 came very close, but they both had localised snowfalls over certain areas of the country in the first few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Is anyone else having problems accessing the Hadley link on the meto site?

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
rolleyes.gif
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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

I don't know what it is NEB but you do have this habit of clinging onto something until you wrung it to death, if it wasn't cold zonality and January 1984, it was warm Septembers and lack of subsequent cold winters. The alarm bell is ringing in my head that you have found another hobby horse to ride.

Lets just use some simple logic and extrapolation here. All these months were at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average in the last 5 years

Jan 2009, 2010

Feb 2010

Mar 2006

Jul 2007

Oct 2008

Dec 2008, 2009

If these months have managed to achieve it in the last 5 years, then you can extrapolate from that position to suggest that is still possible to get an April of at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average.

I am always concerned and have the habit of clinging to death general patterns and weather types that have dissappeared from the UK's weather in recent years. Cold zonal synoptics is one of the most major patterns that has dissappeared from our weather in recent years. Whilst January 1984 may be one of the best examples in the historic weather charts of cold zonality at least during the winter months or winter half-year, as recently as the mid 1990s cold zonality was not extinct. Interludes of cold polar maritime zonal patterns occurred at times in December 1993 and March 1995, and briefly during the northern England snow event of 25th/26th Jan 1995 and also in the second half of November 1996. Whereas since the mid 90s cold zonality appears to have almost or totally become extinct, and cannot find any instance of cold zonality since then.

Warm and notable hot spells during September also seemed to have been another of the most repetitive patterns in the UK's weather especially in the late 1990s and early and mid 2000s, it just seemed to be set like a stuck record, and on top of this they always went hand in hand with mild to average winters, and no September heatwave during those years was ever followed by a cold winter.

As well as this, the lack of cold Aprils has also become another major pattern that has dissappeared from our weather in the last two decades; 21 years since the last significantly below average (more than 0.5*C) April. This is more years than any other month in the year has gone without ever falling more than 0.5*C below the 1961-90 mean.

Generally it is the alarm bell that rings in my head about these, and any other pattern which may be less obvious than the above, that appears to have become totally extinct from the British Weather in recent years, or become a set pattern like a stuck record.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Would you consider this to be cold zonality NEB? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100227.gif

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

February 2010 was most certainly a major cold zonal Month and very wintry across Scotland. The mean temperature for Scotland was only 0.3c.

January 1984 had the exact same split. Very cold for Scotland (0.2c) but much less cold forEngland (3.3c compared to 2.6c for February 2010)

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

February 2010 was most certainly a major cold zonal Month and very wintry across Scotland. The mean temperature for Scotland was only 0.3c.

January 1984 had the exact same split. Very cold for Scotland (0.2c) but much less cold forEngland (3.3c compared to 2.6c for February 2010)

February 2010 saw mostly high pressure near the UK giving often weak easterlies in the first half, then high pressure over Greenland being kept too far west to allow extreme cold to get in so the result was that the northerlies were somewhat modified. Although the second half of Feb 2010 wasn't really a January 1984 type setup, it may well be the closest we have come in recent years to anything approaching a cold polar maritime zonal setup.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Looking back on earlier decades, there were quite a number of cold Aprils that were at least 0.5*C below the 1961-90 average:

1980s 3 1983, 1986, 1989

1970s 4 1970, 1973, 1977, 1978

1960s 2 1966, 1969

1950s 4 1951, 1953, 1956, 1958

1940s 1 1941

1930s 2 1932, 1936

1920s 3 1922, 1924, 1929

1910s 3 1910, 1917, 1918

1900s 4 1903, 1905, 1906, 1908

So in all the decades of the 1900s, bar the 90s, the majority managed two or three cold Aprils, two decades managed four and even the very warm 1940s still managed one cold April. So it is so staggering that neither the 1990s or 2000s have managed even one cold April. So it really is a pattern that has dissappeared from our weather in recent years compared to something that was by no means unusual. So looking at the absence of cold Aprils now for over two decades it makes you wonder if it will happen again.

Another major change has been the lack of snowfall in recent Aprils. I do believe that the Aprils 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2009 all passed without any snow falling at lower levels at least in the whole of the UK, and I do not think that there have been any instance of any snow falling at low levels in this present April, 2010. Whereas in the 90s the Aprils of 1991, 1994, 1996, 1998 and 1999 saw snow fall at fairly low levels at times and a covering in places. In the 1980s I believe that all Aprils but 1984 and 1987 did see snow fall to reasonably low levels at times.

To summarize it in the past the majority of Aprils would normally at least on occasion see snow fall to low levels in the UK with on higher levels at least a proper covering at some stage. Whereas over the last ten years it appears to have become much more the exception rather than the norm.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Snow fell here and in Edinburgh on Tuesday, but it has been pretty warm here other than that.

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Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)

Todays figures from Climate UK are:-

CET: (Apr 1-23): 7.9°C ( 0.0 degC)

E&W Rain: (Apr 1-23): 19.8mm ( 41 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Apr 1-23): 184.5hr (159 per cent)

© Philip Eden

So CET wise this month is bang on average as of today. The final 7 days look warm overall so maybe high 8's or even 9C by month-end?

Edited by Kentish Man
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

I am always concerned and have the habit of clinging to death general patterns and weather types that have dissappeared from the UK's weather in recent years. Cold zonal synoptics is one of the most major patterns that has dissappeared from our weather in recent years. Whilst January 1984 may be one of the best examples in the historic weather charts of cold zonality at least during the winter months or winter half-year, as recently as the mid 1990s cold zonality was not extinct. Interludes of cold polar maritime zonal patterns occurred at times in December 1993 and March 1995, and briefly during the northern England snow event of 25th/26th Jan 1995 and also in the second half of November 1996. Whereas since the mid 90s cold zonality appears to have almost or totally become extinct, and cannot find any instance of cold zonality since then.

Warm and notable hot spells during September also seemed to have been another of the most repetitive patterns in the UK's weather especially in the late 1990s and early and mid 2000s, it just seemed to be set like a stuck record, and on top of this they always went hand in hand with mild to average winters, and no September heatwave during those years was ever followed by a cold winter.

As well as this, the lack of cold Aprils has also become another major pattern that has dissappeared from our weather in the last two decades; 21 years since the last significantly below average (more than 0.5*C) April. This is more years than any other month in the year has gone without ever falling more than 0.5*C below the 1961-90 mean.

Generally it is the alarm bell that rings in my head about these, and any other pattern which may be less obvious than the above, that appears to have become totally extinct from the British Weather in recent years, or become a set pattern like a stuck record.

My point is that last winter proved that cold winters are not extinct, that northerly blocking is still possible. You can apply that same arguement to April.

And as Optimus Prime has mentioned, December has somewhat bucked the trend of a warming in the months. Whilst other months have been registering very mild after very mild month, very mild Decembers in the last 21 years have been very few. Why has December struggled and yet October, November January and February within that period did so with ease?

Edited by Mr_Data
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Todays figures from Climate UK are:-

CET: (Apr 1-23): 7.9°C ( 0.0 degC)

E&W Rain: (Apr 1-23): 19.8mm ( 41 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Apr 1-23): 184.5hr (159 per cent)

© Philip Eden

So CET wise this month is bang on average as of today. The final 7 days look warm overall so maybe high 8's or even 9C by month-end?

The next seven days do look staying above average in the CET zone, but perhaps only just once we get to Wednesday which is likely to prevent the final figure being any higher than 9 degrees which I have always said is likely to be the upper benchmark.

I suspect a finishing figure somewhere between 8.5 degrees and 9 degrees will be the final result. An above average month but not exceptionally so.

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