Tropical Cyclone Paul

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 91P has become sufficiently organised to be classified a 35kt tropical cyclone. The invest pushed southeastwards rather briskly and met the hot waters of the Gulf Of Carpentaria sooner than expected. As a result, convection has rapidly increased over a quickly consolidating LLC which has prompted the formation of 22P in the far western Gulf.

The track forecast for 22P is a little uncertain at present. BOM are very keen on taking 22P straight back westwards inland with little or no intensifcation. JTWC indicate a slow southward track in a weak steering environment with an eventual westward track back inland, but much slower than BOM's forecast. As a result, JTWC are indicating more intensification than BOM due to increased time over the hot waters of the Gulf.

[Cookie]

A very odd track

ht

[Somerset Squall]

22P has been upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Paul, with intensity rising to 40kts. Paul is hugging to western coast of the Gulf Of Carpentaria and is practically statonary in a very weak steering environment. A subtropical ridge could build south of Paul in the next couple days which will send the cyclone back inland south of Gove. If this scenario plays out, Paul won't intensify much more. BOM mentions the possibility of the steering currents changing again thereafter, with current track maps showing a northwestward turn back towards the Arafura Sea, which is where this system originally started out. However, this is very uncertain, and I wouldn't like to bet on anything forecast for Paul beyond 48hrs due to the complex steering environment.

[Somerset Squall]

Paul has remained stationary just off the coast but has intensified over the last 12hrs. Paul is now a 50kt tropical cyclone with solid central convection and impressive feeder bands, particularly on the eastern and northern sides of the storm. Steering currents remain weak and unpredictable. It still seems that a ridge will build south of Paul, steering him westwards inland. However, current thinking from BOM is that westward motion will be short lived as a stronger ridge build to the north or northeast of the system forcing Paul back eastwards over water. It must be stressed that forecasting the track of Paul is proving extremley difficult even for the experts due to the steering environment being weak with little or no defined ridges at present.

If Paul were to move over the Gulf Of Carpentaria proper, then rapid strengthening could occur as shear is low and the waters here are undisturbed, currently at around 32C.

[Cookie]

yup a very hard track to guess

[Somerset Squall]

Australian cyclones are truly unlike any other cyclones in the world. It really amazes me what these cyclones can do despite hugging the coast. Paul has strengthened further today and is now a 65kt cat 1 on the SS scale. Very tight banding surrounds the deep central dense overcast feature and intermittent eye. Cape shield is being battered by damaging winds and extremely heavy rain around the strong core of Paul. Paul is expected to drift westwards inalnd as the ridge to the south strengthens. In fact, this motion appears to have already started. This should force Paul to weaken. It's still uncertain, but BOM are keen to bring Paul back eastwards as the ridge to the south only temporarily builds. If this were to happen, Paul may survive over land and re-strengthen in the Gulf Of Carpentaria.

[Cookie]

yeah they really are unusall but might for intresting tracking.

[Cookie]

been fairly ripped apart.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed Cookie, Paul is now a mere 35kt system as he has tracked further to the west inland. However, Paul has drifted south-southeastwards over the last 6 hours, indicating the anticipated southeastward turn is coming to fruition. Convection has decreased overall since yesterday but has increased in the last 3 hours due to the circulation becoming closer to the Gulf water and therefore pulling in more moisture again. The circulation should be back over water in around 24-36hrs where re-strengthening is likely to occur.

[Somerset Squall]

Paul degenerated into a remnant low this morning, and has since emerged over water in the far southwestern corner of the Gulf Of Carpentaria. However, strong northerly shear has developed, and coupled with land interaction, has significantly disrupted the LLC and made it disorganised. In addition, the convection that is forming is being sheared well south of the LLC. Unless this eases, then Paul won't become a tropical cyclone again before diving inland on the continued southeasterly track.

[Somerset Squall]

Strong shear continued to pound the remnant low of Paul, and the system has moved southeastwards back inland without re-developing into a tropical cyclone.