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Model Output Discussion


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

A fresh thread for the new week 8)

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

Severe flooding across Northern Ireland and Scotland seems pretty likely the next few days with very heavy rain tonight, tommorow and again Tuesday.

A rapid thaw on the mountains of the past weeks snowfall and probably some leading edge snow in a few spots.

As for the rest of us, a grey windy day tommorow with rain spreading east Tuesday then its looking cool and cloudy the rest of the week.

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Posted
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland

Severe flooding across Northern Ireland and Scotland seems pretty likely the next few days with very heavy rain tonight, tommorow and again Tuesday.

A rapid thaw on the mountains of the past weeks snowfall and probably some leading edge snow in a few spots.

As for the rest of us, a grey windy day tommorow with rain spreading east Tuesday then its looking cool and cloudy the rest of the week.

well actually the snow isnt melting that quick.. yesterdays rain melted it enough to show patches of grass.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Frosty j, I think the major threat is as per our own and other web warnings. That is couple with 24-48 hours of rain giving anything from 20-30mm upwards and on the snow cover as well that will cause a fairly rapid melt of snow cover on all but the highest areas.

On a general model note-I'm, from a selfish viewpoint, quite happy until late next week. Why? Until then its a decent mix, changeable and with winds NOT off the b----y North Sea. Once it gets in that direction for most of us away from the sheltered west, SW and southern areas it is not pleasant. But then as I said maybe its a touch selfish! However, the 3 models do seem to want to have winds from an easterly quarter, the more towards south it becomes the better I'll like it.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

The ecm12z is not too bad and certainly an improvement on previous runs. The easterly is postponed until Sunday, leaving us with quite a decent end to the week with temperatures probably nudging into the mid teens, perhaps as high as 18c in places. Hopefully the 240h chart is how things will develop eventually, pulling up a warmer southeasterly.

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Not sure where you are getting 18C from with a cool light easterly drift, 850`s look cool end of the week and nights will be cold, yes temps can get into the teens but 18C is overdoing it, you need a southerly component for temps that high in early to mid April, seems alot of runs are going for a brisk easterly by sunday so hardly feeling warm and then the possibility of the high retrogressing to greenland letting in a cold northerly so hardly a warm pattern setting up, you need it centred over france for that no sign of that.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The gfs & ecm 00z runs are very anticyclonic for much of their respective output with general high pressure domination from later this week and lasting at least 10 days and possibly much longer although the position of the high will be key and some parts of the uk will be disappointingly cool and cloudy at times whereas other areas will be sunny and warm. Initially, we have low pressure in control, especially in northern and western britain but the jet will be forced northwards as pressure rises strongly from the southwest beyond midweek, excellent weather ahead for favoured areas which will give a major boost to sunshine totals and also dry out the saturated ground.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

The high just needs moving a bit further east otherwise it will dull grey for much of the east for what looks like a very long period.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

The high just needs moving a bit further east otherwise it will dull grey for much of the east for what looks like a very long period.

Yep agreed. Let the boring anticyclonic period begin. We could really get some much warmer up this way if we were, say, around the 1015-1020 mark:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

And even a week later we are still stuck with that high:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png

Overally a very uninspiring run indeed with nothing much happening after the low disappears from the NW midweek. At first quite mild and if not pleasant by the end of this week before cooling off considerably next week with an easterly and then easterly with a more northerly origin. I think after that is way up in FI so let's hope things change before then. Even if the high was to move a tad further east that would help to bring up some southerlies but that looks unlikely at the moment. Certainly not your April showers. :rolleyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland

Yep agreed. Let the boring anticyclonic period begin. We could really get some much warmer up this way if we were, say, around the 1015-1020 mark:

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1561.png

And even a week later we are still stuck with that high:

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3121.png

Overally a very uninspiring run indeed with nothing much happening after the low disappears from the NW midweek. At first quite mild and if not pleasant by the end of this week before cooling off considerably next week with an easterly and then easterly with a more northerly origin. I think after that is way up in FI so let's hope things change before then. Even if the high was to move a tad further east that would help to bring up some southerlies but that looks unlikely at the moment. Certainly not your April showers. :rolleyes:

no dont you think that in northern ireland we've had enough rain... i think you mean let the boring period begin for the south east.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

well the gfs is now more in line with the ecm regarding the position of the high (yesterday mornings runs, not seen them since) with high presure much closer to us. isobars well spaced means slack windflow, hopefully thatll be condusive to a more brighter rapid burn back as the sun rises. of course favoured western areas might get alot more very nice spring weather whilst eastern areas will be less favoured once the high settles later in the week.

before then theres some duller wettter weather to get through...but all in all its looking pretty normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Mediterranean climates (Valencia is perfect)
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London

Not sure where you are getting 18C from with a cool light easterly drift, 850`s look cool end of the week and nights will be cold, yes temps can get into the teens but 18C is overdoing it, you need a southerly component for temps that high in early to mid April, seems alot of runs are going for a brisk easterly by sunday so hardly feeling warm and then the possibility of the high retrogressing to greenland letting in a cold northerly so hardly a warm pattern setting up, you need it centred over france for that no sign of that.

Tuesday especially and a few other days have the potential to give warm days. I disagree that you need a southerly for warm temperatures in early April. With clear blue skies and an anticyclone, even 20C is possible, mainly four southern aeas though.

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Actually highest temps in Spring can often be found in parts of North West Scotland and parts of North West England and Ireland with an anticyclone and an easterly breeze. It all depends upon where the high is situated and orientated and how close to the uk it is. Otherwise as others have said generally a Euro High and a southerly breeze will generate the higher temps.

There is no 18 to 20C on the horizon. Looks like there will be refreshingly chilly nights locally where there are clear spells under the high pressure from later this week onwards and temps by day will be probably fairly close to average for early to Mid April. Maybe a 15/16C in any sheltered areas. During and after next weekend, if some model suggestions come right, then a nice brisk dry and refreshingly cool easterly breeze could set in for many eastern and south eastern parts. Along with a mix of cloud and sun then it will be pleasant for some of us. That is where the highest temps could be in the north west. If the high retrogresses as ECM suggests in FI then hints of a mid Spring northerly might appear in which case north western parts could see a definitive flip in temps later on. But all conjecture so far away.

Overall - the south westerly dirge and downpours of the last week (at least after the current heavy rain leaves the north west) are on the way out and much drier weather is to comesmile.gif

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

During and after next weekend, if some model suggestions come right, then a nice brisk dry and refreshingly cool easterly breeze could set in for many eastern and south eastern parts. Along with a mix of cloud and sun then it will be pleasant for some of us.

Tamara-you really are a comic with that comment!

Have you ever walked along the east coast in the conditions you describe, or inland for that matter over/east of the main high ground of England?

'refreshingly cool' is a touch off the mark I think you will find most of us feel about winds from an easterly point that endure this type of weather every year at what, to some of us is, a far too high a frequency.

The winter is fine-we accept and expect that. Spring thro' summer, believe me is not welcomed, other than for it being dry.

Come up and try it later this week but do remember to bring to bring your winter walking gear as 'refreshing' is more like damn cold!

I'll take you for a walk along the Skegness promenade, not for nothing is it called 'Skegness is so bracing' I have never understood why the town thinks its a holiday draw to use that logo!

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Tamara-you really are a comic with that comment!

Have you ever walked along the east coast in the conditions you describe, or inland for that matter over/east of the main high ground of England?

'refreshingly cool' is a touch off the mark I think you will find most of us feel about winds from an easterly point that endure this type of weather every year at what, to some of us is, a far too high a frequency.

The winter is fine-we accept and expect that. Spring thro' summer, believe me is not welcomed, other than for it being dry.

Come up and try it later this week but do remember to bring to bring your winter walking gear as 'refreshing' is more like damn cold!

I'll take you for a walk along the Skegness promenade, not for nothing is it called 'Skegness is so bracing' I have never understood why the town thinks its a holiday draw to use that logo!

laugh.gif Yes I have - it beats atlantic winds any time. My own location is good enough too sometimes.

With the wind off the North Sea, I would just take a bigger bag out with me and roll and an extra fleece or something in there if I am going out for any period of time. Easterly winds make the summer comfortable too when the sun is high in the sky and pottering in the garden is cooler and easier as well. Simples.biggrin.gif On those occasions North Sea cloud can be a shielding bonus toogood.gif

This high pressure pattern has cropped up a few times in the models in mid spring in recent years and has had a repercussion for a soggy summer. Will it happen this year?

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

I'll take you for a walk along the Skegness promenade, not for nothing is it called 'Skegness is so bracing' I have never understood why the town thinks its a holiday draw to use that logo!

:oops: spot on john!!!!

what i call 'dirge' isnt the ever changing sothwesterly mobile scenario but a prolonged easterly with all its dull cool stratus for days on end.... nothing weather ... it has to be the most boring of all types. at this time of the year eastern areas are prone to this. however, atm im optimistic that with either high pressure close by or a southerly leaning in the forthcoming easteries cloud cover might not be much of an issue. the 06z is even close to a plume event as southeasterlies kick in. but 1 run does not a heatwave make. in all, even with the hint of a retrogressing high opening the northerly door in deep fi, the 06z run is a good one for me! with alot of nice, pleasant, spring weather on offer. :lol:

laugh.gif Easterly winds make the summer comfortable too when the sun is high in the sky and pottering in the garden is cooler and easier as well.

i agree with you there, a nice sirrocco type easterly is often less humid and makes the heat more pleasant.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I may not often agree with Mushymanrob- but on this occasion I certainly do! Each to their own of course, but repeatedly expressing a desire for that low cloud-laden "easterly" scenario in the Model Output Discussion thread (which is meant to be objective, there's always the general banter thread for that sort of thing) is always going to annoy the large numbers who can't stand it.

"Sunshine and wintry showers" type easterlies require cold upper air, otherwise the result tends to be extensive stratus and stratocumulus trapped under an inversion- the main issue during April is the warmer continent which means that unless a pronounced easterly has a potent "northerly" source it will give rise to the dull drizzly scenario. A slack easterly flow is a different matter, which often gives sunshine away from North Sea coastal fringes.

However, the models are starting to show signs of backtracking with the emphasis mainly on a slack easterly flow and therefore plenty of sunshine likely away from North Sea coasts. It may feel warm in the sun but chilly out of the sun and in the breeze. We will always need to watch towards the SE in particular though, because any strengthening of the flow (as shown towards GFS T+180) would cause low cloud to become a lot more widespread.

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

i agree with you there, a nice sirrocco type easterly is often less humid and makes the heat more pleasant.

I thought that one of those came from Africa?cc_confused.gif It would be sticky and humid as it crosses the mediterranean as a southerly instead?unsure.gif

The GFS is good I agree - also hints of a northerly later on which (hypothetically as it is in FI) might be fun as long as it doesn't let low pressure back in again afterwards.

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Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

Tuesday especially and a few other days have the potential to give warm days. I disagree that you need a southerly for warm temperatures in early April. With clear blue skies and an anticyclone, even 20C is possible, mainly four southern aeas though.

Its rare that you see 20C in April without a southerly source of air, for 20C in Early April you need a Euro high like this one in April 2008, in which temperatures rised to 24C in some areas (Though it was the 26th)

post-10203-12704691429255_thumb.gif

Or of course April 2007, the first 20C in the exceptional spell was on the 5th for many areas:

post-10203-12704693006255_thumb.gif

The warmest day occured on the 11th, with 26C recorded along a few southern areas:

post-10203-12704693444855_thumb.gif

Using the Cambridge university archives, since 1998, there have been 43 20C+ days in April, and all of these days had a southerly source of air.

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Posted
  • Location: Sale (Cheshire)
  • Weather Preferences: Dry and cold...
  • Location: Sale (Cheshire)

Scirocco defo comes from Africa. It is quite striking when it blows in the mountains in winter, it turns the snow pale reddish due to the sand it carries

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

A drying up period coming up by the looks of it, it is marginal for my location whether we get sunshine and very mild temperatures or cloudy and cool with the wind off the sea.

Whatever happens, it does look like most places should get at least 1-2 days of sunshine and mild temps but whether low cloud will come to into play or not is a bit uncertain. ECM seems less keen for this scnario whilst the GFS still shows a stronger easterly flow although with winds coming in from the continent than the sea, then most places i would imagine will be sunny apart from NE Scotland and NE England where low cloud will hang around unfortunately.

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

laugh.gif Yes I have - it beats atlantic winds any time. My own location is good enough too sometimes.

With the wind off the North Sea, I would just take a bigger bag out with me and roll and an extra fleece or something in there if I am going out for any period of time. Easterly winds make the summer comfortable too when the sun is high in the sky and pottering in the garden is cooler and easier as well. Simples.biggrin.gif On those occasions North Sea cloud can be a shielding bonus toogood.gif

I find they can make summer days uncomfortable rather than comfortable - i.e. not warm enough to sit outside as they provide a nagging chill and block out the sun. Heading down to a cave would achieve the same thing!

The other downside to easterlies is air quality - as they are often sourced from the industrial heartland of Europe. I remember several 'smelly easterlies' in recent years. At least with SWlies the air is clean and fresh.

But yes, in high summer when temps are into the mid 20s and the sun is out, easterlies can give a nice pleasing breeze to take the heat off. Unfortunately this breeze tends not to die down in the evening making things too chilly. Also, every morning you play the low cloud lottery - will it be cloudy at all... will it burn off in time to allow the afternoon to be warm up enough... will it just stay cloudy all day... You can never tell and its very hard to forecast too.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Also, every morning you play the low cloud lottery - will it be cloudy at all... will it burn off in time to allow the afternoon to be warm up enough... will it just stay cloudy all day... You can never tell and its very hard to forecast too.

That was certainly the case on these following days, which are actually mostly in mid-late spring rather than summer but at a time when the sun is as strong as it is in the summer months:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00120030419.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090415.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120080519.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

overall the outlook seems to be just below average, average daytime temperatures + below average night temperatures. I imagine mostly cloudy with periods of light rain tracking around the outskirts of the high pressure system, more sunshine for north and east in the longer run

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

The gloom is back on the 12z, if it came off the sun wouldn't be making much of an appearance anytime within the next week.

In fact the run just seems very unrealistic, such as that heavy rain appearing out of nowhere on Sunday.

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