Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland

Yes a great end to the GFS 12z run which would definately bring the first proper warmth of the year in a southerly/south easterly wind flow with uppers around 8C. 22-24C would be realistic from that set up in the south east if there is sun, but at the moment it's too far out. Still much improved charts though!

Aye right we've struggled to get 10 days at 10c

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Looks like that with every update, the gears of the warm weather is beginning to turn faster with temperatures into double figures in the day time, although with some cold/cool nights. The 850 hpa upper temperatures look generally on the cool side, particularly in the North with warmer upper temperatures becoming more frequent.

Sure not much rain around, too thanks to that high pressure and very low rainfall amounts (except for at 348 hours, the GFS UK Precipitation Map shows a large area of precipitation, lol). smile.gif

Edit: But I agree that the warmer temperatures very late on could still change, though I hope it will still verify in some way.

Edited by Rainbow Snow
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Again we'll have to watch out for the ECM, but the GFS and UKMO have toned down the easterly some more, with just a slack easterly flow into next week. My guess from this slack scenario would be "haar" affecting North Sea areas with sunshine inland and in the west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

A fantastic GFS 12Z imo. The GFS has been keen to bring temperatures near enough 20c later on in April. Lets hope it verifies. Will be dull and cloudy in The East at times perhaps but on the whole the outlook is sunny and warm. Excellent! :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol, England
  • Location: Bristol, England

At last, the first signs into FI of some real heat beginning to build up over and to the southeast/east of the UK.

The charts into the T+300's hint of temperatures into the low-20's Celsius, and possibly as high

as 26C over the continent to our east and southeast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Mediterranean climates (Valencia is perfect)
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London

At last, the first signs into FI of some real heat beginning to build up over and to the southeast/east of the UK.

The charts into the T+300's hint of temperatures into the low-20's Celsius, and possibly as high

as 26C over the continent to our east and southeast.

Yes, definately one to look out for in future runs.. the first shorts and t shirt weather of the year!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

GFS 12z was a warm outlier and had no support from its ensemble members but Its a question of how much support will the latest GFS run get from the other models and will this be backed up in future runs from GFS and its ensembles aswell as other models such as ECM and UKMO? Seeing though that the 00z and 06z were cool runs, the 12z has to be taken very lightly for the time being. The 00z ECM run had the Easterlies for the Southern half of the country allowing LP to head up from Spain through France and then on the last frame moved into our shores.

post-10203-12706652881055_thumb.png

Edited by Snowman0697
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

Well the 12z ECM kind of goes with the 12z GFS so there's some agreement there, it seems next week's easterly is being downgraded/pushed south more and more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

At last, the first signs into FI of some real heat beginning to build up over and to the southeast/east of the UK.

The charts into the T+300's hint of temperatures into the low-20's Celsius, and possibly as high

as 26C over the continent to our east and southeast.

Really isn't much point in banking on what is being shown 300hrs +, the old adage look within the reliable timeframe and you'll be much less dissapointed is spoken with words of wisdom, seldom do charts 300hs + verify even though they may desperately be showing what people want.

General theme an easterly flow of sorts looks like developing, subtle shifts in the central pressure of the high will make all the difference whether it becomes a deep seated easterly turning north easterly or indeed a slacker easterly becoming south easterly. Still think the high will retrogress north west rather than ridge south. I'm wary of warm spells in April they have a habit of heradling a poor summer 2007 being a classic example, much rather have warmth in May.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

I'm wary of warm spells in April they have a habit of heradling a poor summer 2007 being a classic example, much rather have warmth in May.

...to herald a poor summer like 2008 :D

Good signs for a warm spell later on in the run and also excellent that the easterly like I had thought is being downgraded nearer the time - the life story of the winter just gone. The icing on the cake would be a nice early plume event. All very much in FI atm. Looks like there are a few guaranteed sunny and warmish days Thurs-Sun.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Really isn't much point in banking on what is being shown 300hrs +, the old adage look within the reliable timeframe and you'll be much less dissapointed is spoken with words of wisdom, seldom do charts 300hs + verify even though they may desperately be showing what people want.

very true

take a look at the NOAA verification tables for days 5 and day 6

the 3 main models are pretty good at day 5 but by day 6 all take a tumble.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

GFS looks pretty good for western areas with some fairly warm temps it should feel very pleasant. A different story for eastern areas with plenty of low cloud, I'm usually in the middle with the low cloud, sometimes I'm affected, sometimes not.

I don't really see what the fuss is about with the "dreaded" north sea cloud, Its only cloud, unless you stare at the sky all day then I really don't see the issue. Yes temperatures will be suppressed but nothing unusually so, if it is constant drizzle fair enough but otherwise I don't really mind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Some people think it's alright as long as it's dry, but again it's about personal preferences, and there are many reasons why some of us dread prolonged cloudy spells. They can make it far less conducive to outdoor activities when there's a cold wind accompanying the cloud, and there are also "lack of Vitamain D" related issues- in general many of us feel happier when the sun's out. In addition, for many weather enthusiasts, there's nothing more uninteresting than a layer of stratus- at least when it's sunny there's usually something going on, e.g. haze, high cloud, good sunsets, fair-weather cumulus.

The ECM goes for a slightly more pronounced easterly flow than UKMO/GFS so we'd probably see more in the way of cloud, but the general trend is for the easterly to continue to be toned down as we approach next week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

oh dear, this mornings gfs and ecm now have the high centred to our north/northwest. this gives the (slackish) airflow a long sea track and i reckon will give extensive cloudcover. these charts are very similar to april 1974, great in the west, ok in central areas if the cloud burns off, bleak for the east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

FI again reverts to 'green' temps rather than the yellow/orange variety!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A huge area of high pressure is poised to take total control of the uk weather from the weekend onwards, a few initial glitches with much of scotland being a bit mixed during today and tomorrow with some patchy rain but from the weekend it's plain sailing everywhere with a 1032 mb anticyclone slap bang over the uk although it will shift around, firstly heading towards scandinavia and then being pulled west into the atlantic as a trough sinks into norway, eventually the high is sucked into mid atlantic and heads towards greenland and becomes a robust feature with a cold blast for the uk which the ecm now agrees with the gfs about although I doub't an arctic plunge would amount to much after mid april except for the scottish highlands.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL

It looks to me like our 'easterly' continues to be watered down, with the high now settling pretty much over the UK in the reliable, and where it goes from there is still open to debate, although at present FI on all the models is unanimous in suggesting retrogression towards Greenland and a northerly. If it were to happen as currently progged we might be talking about snow showers in the third week of April (at least for some), but since it's way out at T240+ it won't and we won't !!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest North Sea Snow Convection

GFS looks pretty good for western areas with some fairly warm temps it should feel very pleasant. A different story for eastern areas with plenty of low cloud, I'm usually in the middle with the low cloud, sometimes I'm affected, sometimes not.

I don't really see what the fuss is about with the "dreaded" north sea cloud, Its only cloud, unless you stare at the sky all day then I really don't see the issue. Yes temperatures will be suppressed but nothing unusually so, if it is constant drizzle fair enough but otherwise I don't really mind.

Yes indeed, life does go on!smile.gif There are plenty of other things to do and think about than worry 24/7 over a cloud sheet and it is hardly a destructive form of weather to keep one indoors and prevent getting out and about!biggrin.gif

Anyway, the outlook suggests a very high pressure dominated picture. Cloud or no cloud - it has to be 'dealt with'.

The models have good agreeement for the high to pull back westwards with time. It looks like yet another repeat of the pattern we saw in February and again in March.

So I expect when the high is centred back towards western Greenland and low pressure returns to the Uk and the weather is disturbed again then people will be happy again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Well the models looks decent for the next 72hrs, looking warm and sunny with temperatures probably getting well above average by daytime (I'd bet we'll be pushing close to 20 in a couple of spots by Saturday.)

Beyond that and just a few hints of an upper high forming near Greenland, needs to be watched as the angle of the high and its exact location will determine what weather we actually get.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I don't really see what the fuss is about with the "dreaded" north sea cloud, Its only cloud, unless you stare at the sky all day then I really don't see the issue. Yes temperatures will be suppressed but nothing unusually so, if it is constant drizzle fair enough but otherwise I don't really mind.

as you say 10123 its only cloud, and no I certainly don't spend my time looking at it. I'm just aware its there as a look at the thermometer confirms. 1 day no problem, 2 days iffy but when it gets to 3 days or more then I cannot see any pleasure in that type of weather.

But as T has posted, its only weather, and each to our own.

I prefer some sunshine each day be the wind from whatever direction, variety is the spice of life as they say.

In terms of the overall weather then high pressure will be the dominant player. Initially with a flow from S or SW then over time from the east. Moving into FI time frames then IF GFS is correct then the surface high pulls west allowing a more NW or N'ly flow.

That said its best to treat beyond day 6 even as tentative at best. Why? Well a look at how the main models are performing after about day 5 on the NOAA check site show them all not doing very well.

The major synoptic pattern shows little indication of the Atlantic having a great influence in terms of really unsettled weather. Most of the time, in whatever time scale, this month looks likely to have air that has originated from a northerly point. So dewpoints in single figures pretty well everywhere. This means by day in sunshine feeling quite pleasant, with cloud cover and any breeze feeling quite cool, maybe even chilly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

The thing with "it's only cloud" is that it's just a personal opinion based on the premise that persistent stratus is preferable to many other types of weather, and clearly some people don't agree and they should be entitled to their views. After all we don't see complaints about sunshine and showers addressed with "it's only showers". In the final analysis, all types of weather have to be dealt with.

The models have continued to back away from the pronounced easterly scenario- there is quite a long track over the North Sea but the flow looks set to be slack so I don't think low cloud is likely to penetrate very far inland for the most part. It could well be a case of "haar" affecting many east-coast areas while central and western parts see plenty of sunshine.

Some indications for a northerly around midmonth, I think we are likely to see a surge of Arctic air around then but it's questionable whether it will catch Britain full-on- it could well be diverted to the east keeping an anticyclonic outlook, or to the west leading to more of a cyclonic outlook.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Mediterranean climates (Valencia is perfect)
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London

The problem with cloud is that it keeps temperatures down, makes everything darker and greyer, and personally I love nothing better than a sunny day. Yes it won't stop me from doing anything, but everything feels and looks much better when the sun is out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

Some indications for a northerly around midmonth, I think we are likely to see a surge of Arctic air around then but it's questionable whether it will catch Britain full-on- it could well be diverted to the east keeping an anticyclonic outlook, or to the west leading to more of a cyclonic outlook.

.. either way, the synoptic pattern projected by both GFS and ECM ensemble mean heights is unlikely to do anything positive towards sea surface temperatures over the Azores and central Atlantic:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

Lots of storminess, surface mixing, cloud and reduced incoming radiation will persist and possibly strengthen the negatuve anomaly over this region into the coming months. The last six months have also been dominated by a negative phase of the North Altantic Oscillation. How long will it perist ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Dont like the GFS 06z. Into FI it turns very cool. Probably will change but i want the 18-22c temperatures showing from before rather than the current 5-10c stuff!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland

Dont like the GFS 06z. Into FI it turns very cool. Probably will change but i want the 18-22c temperatures showing from before rather than the current 5-10c stuff!

yea i think its about time things warm up.... im sick of single figure temps now.... i want 20 something c... if new york can reach 32c?? then why cant we i mean.... how could they reach that in april???? im forecasted 18c on saturday.. and tbh i think ill get 20-22c maybe 23c... if im very lucky.. because each time we were forecasted 11c or so we have been a couple of degrees warmer...

Edited by frostyjoe
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...