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Posted
  • Location: The Highlands of West Fife. 650ft ASL. Nr Knockhill Racing Circuit
  • Weather Preferences: Hot N' Sunny / Cauld N' Snawy
  • Location: The Highlands of West Fife. 650ft ASL. Nr Knockhill Racing Circuit

yea i think its about time things warm up.... im sick of single figure temps now.... i want 20 something c... if new york can reach 32c?? then why cant we i mean.... how could they reach that in april???? im forecasted 18c on saturday.. and tbh i think ill get 20-22c maybe 23c... if im very lucky.. because each time we were forecasted 11c or so we have been a couple of degrees warmer...

"how could they reach that in april????""

Being part of a Large Continent such as North America and being on a similar latitute to Madrid in Spain ???

Lucky B*****s biggrin.gif

Oh aye,

And everything is Bigger, Better, Faster, Stronger, Hotter & Colder in the good ole US of A whistling.gif

Big Innes.

Edited by Big Innes Madori
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Posted
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland

"how could they reach that in april????""

Being part of a Large Continent such as North America and being on a similar latitute to Madrid in Spain ???

Lucky B*****s biggrin.gif

Big Innes.

yea but even spain is barely in the 20s... we better get an arctic winter for this!

Edited by frostyjoe
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

yea i think its about time things warm up.... im sick of single figure temps now.... i want 20 something c... if new york can reach 32c?? then why cant we i mean.... how could they reach that in april???? im forecasted 18c on saturday.. and tbh i think ill get 20-22c maybe 23c... if im very lucky.. because each time we were forecasted 11c or so we have been a couple of degrees warmer...

As mentioned New York is roughly the same latitude as Madrid and also when winds swing round to the south dragging warm air up from Florida and the western Carribean and the eastern seaboard is under the influence of the western end of the semi-permanent N Atlantic ridge, temperatures can rocket this time of year in the strong sunshine.

We really need to have a wind from a southerly source for high temps across western Europe, hence why even Spain has had a lack of high temps recently.

Looking at the weekend, GFS thickness/height projections suggest highest values in more western areas, so perhaps highest temps in the west Saturday and Sunday. So perhaps sheltered parts of Wales and the West Country seeing the highest values.

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Posted
  • Location: The Highlands of West Fife. 650ft ASL. Nr Knockhill Racing Circuit
  • Weather Preferences: Hot N' Sunny / Cauld N' Snawy
  • Location: The Highlands of West Fife. 650ft ASL. Nr Knockhill Racing Circuit

yea but even spain is barely in the 20s... we better get an arctic winter for this!

As long as we get a Spanish Summer first FJ good.gif

Big Innes.

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Posted
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland

As mentioned New York is roughly the same latitude as Madrid and also when winds swing round to the south dragging warm air up from Florida and the western Carribean and the eastern seaboard is under the influence of the western end of the semi-permanent N Atlantic ridge, temperatures can rocket this time of year in the strong sunshine.

We really need to have a wind from a southerly source for high temps across western Europe, hence why even Spain has had a lack of high temps recently.

Looking at the weekend, GFS thickness/height projections suggest highest values in more western areas, so perhaps highest temps in the west Saturday and Sunday. So perhaps sheltered parts of Wales and the West Country seeing the highest values.

well im forecasted 18c on both those days so maybe 20-21c for here..

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

I doubt higher than 20c will be recorded this weekend however 18c or so will feel great.

Interesting to note how the charts arent doing well after about day 5. Clearly shows that later than this is subject to change. The charts not long back were keen on a SE'ly element developing later in April bring up warm air. Lets hope the charts show this again soon!

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Posted
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland

I doubt higher than 20c will be recorded this weekend however 18c or so will feel great.

Interesting to note how the charts arent doing well after about day 5. Clearly shows that later than this is subject to change. The charts not long back were keen on a SE'ly element developing later in April bring up warm air. Lets hope the charts show this again soon!

well its 14c here now and we werent ment to reach that... everyday my area is warmer... and the highest in northern ireland see ... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_latest_weather.html everyday!!!

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The charts not long back were keen on a SE'ly element developing later in April bring up warm air. Lets hope the charts show this again soon!

Sorry not much chance of that now actually most runs are going for northerlies/northeasterlies though not that cold initially for next week this is quite a shocker and with support too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

well its 14c here now and we werent ment to reach that... everyday my area is warmer... and the highest in northern ireland see ... http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html everyday!!!

Doesn't look that warm in Ireland. No way will you reach above 18c...no way at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland

Doesn't look that warm in Ireland. No way will you reach above 18c...no way at all.

Well what's this then : http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/5dayforecastdetail?forecastid=322116

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

if new york can reach 32c?? then why cant we i mean.... how could they reach that in april????

Silly question. New York is on a country with a large landmass. Washington reached 23c in February 1991 and look how far north Washington is.

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well its 14c here now and we werent ment to reach that... everyday my area is warmer... and the highest in northern ireland see ... http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html everyday!!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1217.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn8417.png

lol well we were meant too reach around 15C today and back to just under that on sunday, so a two day warm snap then as the only potential real warm days are tomorrow and saturday.

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Posted
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland
  • Location: Coleraine,Macosquin,County Londonderry, Northern Ireland

We were forestated 11c today and it's 14c ... Do you actually believe those forecasts are correct .. The Americans are the only precise ones

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

We were forestated 11c today and it's 14c ... Do you actually believe those forecasts are correct .. The Americans are the only precise ones

Why do you always make reference to them? You never use the models on the "model output discussion" yet you insist on relying on the BBC 5 day forecast on every post.

Edited by 10123
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

It would be quite a shock to the system if the charts at T+240 were too come off after the warmth of this weekend. Very unlikely at this stage I must say, but the ECM and GFS 6z are carbon-copies of each other at that range today.

It would bring some quite exciting weather. Pleasant sunshine with temperatures of 5-8C, falling close to freezing in heavy snow showers and the possibility of thunder. It would then be very cold with some hard frosts overnight and quite late ones at that compared to recent years (Its 12 years since we had a frost in the second half of April here). Its definitely not what most on here want, but it would be a welcome change from what is turning out to be another fairly boring spring again in regards to extremes (so far).

In the mean time theres a bit of disagreement between the models and what the MetOffice/BBC are forecasting with regards to cloud amounts. As usual with this setup its next to impossible to predict and could be a case of sticking your head out of the window to see.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Not quite 'sticking your head out of the window' Reef but not far off.

Winds off the N Sea have caused as many wrong forecasts that I knew of personally than almost any other for centres responsible for forecasting for the eastern half of England. Strength of wind, cloud cover etc etc. Use the visual sat piccs and then take the 950mb or the wind closest to about 1200-2000ft off the surface to predict for a few hours. Remember though that cloud forms/develops/dissipates, so no more than about 6 hours is usually reliable using that, at any rate for precision. Watching visual sat piccs is useful for further ahead to show if cloud has formed upwind of you, some of the other wavelengths also show areas of moisture and these can give forewarning of cloud forming when none shows on the visual sat picc.

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Posted
  • Location: Chevening Kent
  • Location: Chevening Kent

Blimley folks as someone who reads this thread regularly but cannot read charts to get the expert analysis offered: You have provided me with a weather forecast for the 3rd week of April of something between 5c, snow showers and night frosts to wall to wall sunshine and temps towards the mid 20s in the last 24hrs ???

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The faux warmth looks like being over by sunday on GFS 12Z as we pull in cooler continental air from the continent, nights look cold all the way with widespread ground frost with fog patches in rural areas until the wind picks up from sunday/monday.

Tuesday looks a very raw and dull drizzly day.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1262.png

Runs definately pushing towards a northeasterly on todays runs.

Edited by Eugene
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I've just seen the ECM 00Z FI (I'd previously looked no further than T+168) and that looks more conducive to the scenario Reef describes than the GFS 06Z as the air pressure is a bit higher on the GFS, though GFS too would bring a chill reminder of winter. Such a "switch-around" from warm sunshine via the HP to northerlies and wintry showers is not unusual at this time of year (and I share Reef's enthusiasm for this kind of pattern), but especially as it's such a long way off, it could easily change. I mentioned the other two possibilities in my previous post (Arctic air shunted away to W leaving a cool cyclonic regime, or to E leaving a continuation of the antiryclonic type).

I agree regarding the low cloud being very hard to predict in these situations. There was an occurrence in early March this year when I expected cloud to be largely confined to the SE corner but in reality it ended up rather more extensive over central and eastern parts of England. It may prove difficult to forecast the extent of the cloud more than 1-2 days out, and satellite data plus relative humidity will prove useful guides.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

GFS 12 oz not a good run for eastern areas in FI land. Until then if it's right we can expect a few warm days. Can't really compare ECM it with the 12oz from GFS and it will be interesting what the later run shows.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Brrrrrrr the GFS 12z shows a very cold spell beyond mid april with about as potent a N'ly as would be possible for so late in the season and would deliver another large amount of snow to the hills & mountains of northern britain and widespread sharp frosts to much of the uk. In the short term out to early next week it is looking lovely though with plenty of sunshine and light winds although nights will be chilly in low single digits celsius, beyond monday, the high could pull further west and allow more of a NE'ly which is likely to drag down the temps and increase the cloudcover to some central and eastern areas before the high regains control for a time but retrogression is currently looking favoured in the longer range with a chance of a surprisingly wintry spell around 20-25th april but at this range I would only give it a 10-15% chance of success.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Mediterranean climates (Valencia is perfect)
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London

Blimley folks as someone who reads this thread regularly but cannot read charts to get the expert analysis offered: You have provided me with a weather forecast for the 3rd week of April of something between 5c, snow showers and night frosts to wall to wall sunshine and temps towards the mid 20s in the last 24hrs ???

5C and snow showers is very very unlikely for your region, and was aimed at other regions, that would be about 10C below average for your area.

The problem is that no one knows, and it is likely to be a mixture between the two different scenarios, yesterday temps above 20C were being shown in FI, but today it is showing a much cooler pattern - the reality is somewhere in between this.

On current FI charts, for Surrey I would suggest it would be dull - cloudy and very cool at about 10-12C at best. Lots of time for change though.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

5c and snow showers in April can be very common. In between the showers atleast it can drop below 5c. I've seen it around 0c before in the coldest of Aprils. It would be possible given the northerly shown by the GFS, it would be a fairly appreciable effort.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Mediterranean climates (Valencia is perfect)
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London

The set up isn't rare, but 5c is very hard to get in April, let alone late April in London..

From the nearest station to me (not including this year)

April 2009 recorded 0 days with a max below 10C

April 2008 recorded 3 days with a max below 10C - 2 of those days in the snow event at the start of the month, the other one was 9C in mid month, lowest was 6C

April 2007 recorded 1 day with a max below 10C - 9C on the 3rd

April 2006 recorded 4 days - the lowest 8C, all before midmonth

April 2005 recorded 0 days below 10C

April 2004 recorded 0 days below 10C

So in the last 5 years at least it would be very rare

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