2010, Sea Ice Prediction Thread

[Gray-Wolf]

Jack1's thread was being cluttered by the fervour for this summers melt predictions.

I'll post my guess here , below 3 million sq km's.

You know why.

Dare you to post your punt with your reasoning as a 'post' as well as a vote?

EDIT: If anyone can master the 'vote' system then one from below 3 million sq km to below 9million sq km would be helpful......O.S. not playing ball........

Edited April 11, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some stats on the last few years and the long term averages would be helpful I think, like on the CET threads. If someone could oblige...?

[Gray-Wolf]

Would this help?

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png

[jethro]

Can't remember the figures but I'll bet it won't be lower than the 2007 figure.

[Gray-Wolf]

Can't remember the figures but I'll bet it won't be lower than the 2007 figure.

That may well catch the sentiment best of all 'J' !!!

A Pole of 2007 ,more, same .or less this year....NSIDC seem to be 'on with it' so why not us????

Edited April 11, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[BARRY]

5.3 million Sq Km's, Just don't see a warmer than average summer.

[Gray-Wolf]

5.3 million Sq Km's, Just don't see a warmer than average summer.

Please don't say that I've just fettled my hammock........

[The PIT]

LOL Just too make GW happy the Arctic will melt completely. 0 square miles.

[MR EXTREMES]

Can't remember the figures but I'll bet it won't be lower than the 2007 figure.

no chance of repeat of 2007 i go for similar to last year but maybe a little more melt but nothing to kick up the drama.:unsure:

[Devonian]

Lower than last year, probably not as low as 2007. Why? The planet is warmer/EN/postEN this year, some of that will get N. The ice is thin, it wont take much to get extents below last year but 2007 also had exceptional synoptics and to get as low as then we'd need something like a repeat.

Edited April 12, 2010 by Devonian

[Gray-Wolf]

As I see things we still had some perennial in 07' Dev.

It's like tidying this house, for a short while everything is everywhere but soon enough that clutter disappears.

The perennial that was left in 07' was left in disarray and collapsed continually throughout the past 2 years.

Some of it has already moved out of the Arctic and melted and so we are now left with the remnants of that mess which will find it easier to 'ship out' as there is less perennial blocking the path (those fabled 'arches' across Davis straight and the perennial that used to stem Fram).

We'll know soon enough if what I suspect is the truth as either Icebridge or Cryosat2 will find no trace of the 'old', thick,perennial when they investigate the areas it is reported to be in (as Dr B. discovered in his search for 'old perennial').

This will also cast a new light on the 'recovery' we have undergone if part of the ice cover was collapsing old perennial and not new ice at all.

If my understandings play out as the truth of things up there then we are at the point of having a 'seasonal pack in waiting' and it will not take an 07' synoptic for us to get down to the million km line which is ,effectively , seasonal ice.

As I've maintained all along I don't wish for us to be in this position (thanks Pit!) but it is as I perceive things to be.

[Iceberg]

I am going for a 70% chance of 2007 being broken, with 80% that 2009 will be broken but 2007 won't.

Main reasons for this are.

- The prevalence of a negative AO which we know encourages HP over the arctic and increases Direct UV melt.

- The warmer than normal Winter in the arctic.

- The poor state of sea ice areas such as the Franz Josef and Nova Zema etc.

Direction flow of ice looks to be neutral.

Edited April 14, 2010 by Iceberg

[BornFromTheVoid]

What figures will ye be using to judge the minimum extent?

[Gray-Wolf]

What figures will ye be using to judge the minimum extent?

We'll be stuck with 'ice extent' but we can always verify ourselves by using the MODIS images to see how ice levels are and also (hopefully) by then we will have our first 'ice min volume' pretty soon after it occurs instead of 1/2 way through winter as we have been doing.

[Nights King]

Joe laminate floori has some interesting thoughts about the Ice melt season and re-build thereafter...

http://www.accuweath...m/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

Edited May 7, 2010 by mullender83

[songster]

Joe laminate floori has some interesting thoughts about the Ice melt season and re-build thereafter...

http://www.accuweath...m/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

For those perplexed by the above link, the word "b a s t a r d i" (without spaces) has been converted to "laminate floori" by some particularly dense profanity filter.

[Gray-Wolf]

For those perplexed by the above link, the word "b a s t a r d i" (without spaces) has been converted to "laminate floori" by some particularly dense profanity filter.

Hmmmm can't even type S c u n t h o r p e ......

I find it very unsettling to share projections with him!!! Somehow he always seemed to be on the 'unrealistic' side of things yet this year he's really pinned his colours to the mast. I have more of belief that we'll pass 07's figures than he has but for him to accept just how fragile the pack is this season is at least a start.

We certainly part opinions when we come to next years rebuild though (is this for this thread?) as ,should our current synoptic predominate, we will end up with more of the same i.e. lots of extra ice outside the basin and poor ice reformation in the areas that need it most (Canadian archipelago,Barents, north greenland, Fram, and north of there).

As for things today I fear we have started to see the ferocity of the early stage of this years melt (are we losing ice at a faster rate than ever recorded before yet?).

[Gray-Wolf]

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2010131.terra.4km

You can see our problem over the Fram Straight (main 'outlet' from the Arctic) if you look at the above (bottom end of the image).

With the Atlantic 'blocked', and a semi-stationary low off Sweden, the flow (from north to south) of Fram is enhanced. Already this years ice from Greenland's East Coast is mainly gone (only the coastal ice remains) as it managed to continue to flow south all winter with only the ice north of Svalbard 'locked' in the winter's 'first year ice'.

This mass of ice north of Svalbard and up beyond Frans Joseph fragmented fully on the Feb and march Full moons and is now all flowing south through the straights. This holds a fair percentage of our 'older ice'.

If we clear this 1/3 of the Arctic pack before the main onset of melt (June/July) then the normal rotation of the central Arctic pack (Arctic Gyre) will present the rest of the perennial across the straight throughout the rest of summer.

Any drastic melt out of the Siberian side of the pack (now that it's ocean has lost it's internal zoning) at the same time will leave an ice island of fragmented thin ice over the geographic pole. Any winds that are not Anticyclonic in nature will drift this 'island' onto either the Russian or Canadian side and into warmer waters (as the will have been ice free for 6 weeks or so) and may well take out a percentage of this ice to.

Should the above occur we will not only loose the rest of our perennial/multi year but also reduce the pack down towards the 1 million sq km mark of a 'seasonal pack' and put a lot of 'dark water' under the Arctic summer sun. It will also expose new sections of ocean to wind/wave action and mix any 'zoning' that may remain there.

[Yorkshiresnows]

http://rapidfire.sci...10131.terra.4km

You can see our problem over the Fram Straight (main 'outlet' from the Arctic) if you look at the above (bottom end of the image).

With the Atlantic 'blocked', and a semi-stationary low off Sweden, the flow (from north to south) of Fram is enhanced. Already this years ice from Greenland's East Coast is mainly gone (only the coastal ice remains) as it managed to continue to flow south all winter with only the ice north of Svalbard 'locked' in the winter's 'first year ice'.

This mass of ice north of Svalbard and up beyond Frans Joseph fragmented fully on the Feb and march Full moons and is now all flowing south through the straights. This holds a fair percentage of our 'older ice'.

If we clear this 1/3 of the Arctic pack before the main onset of melt (June/July) then the normal rotation of the central Arctic pack (Arctic Gyre) will present the rest of the perennial across the straight throughout the rest of summer.

Any drastic melt out of the Siberian side of the pack (now that it's ocean has lost it's internal zoning) at the same time will leave an ice island of fragmented thin ice over the geographic pole. Any winds that are not Anticyclonic in nature will drift this 'island' onto either the Russian or Canadian side and into warmer waters (as the will have been ice free for 6 weeks or so) and may well take out a percentage of this ice to.

Should the above occur we will not only loose the rest of our perennial/multi year but also reduce the pack down towards the 1 million sq km mark of a 'seasonal pack' and put a lot of 'dark water' under the Arctic summer sun. It will also expose new sections of ocean to wind/wave action and mix any 'zoning' that may remain there.

These must be very exciting times for you GW.

Can't wait for the next umpteenth posts regarding impending doom, horror and thorough melting.

I'll go with Mr laminate floori. Lots of melt this summer, probably not as bad as 2007, with a big bounce back thereafter starting this winter.

Y.S

[Gray-Wolf]

I've just scanned back through the previous threads and there seems to have been a lot of posts about 'recovery' over this period......are you saying there wasn't one or that there was until the coming collapse and then ,once collapsed, it'll be in recovery mode again? As the 'volume' charts show quite plainly there has been no 'recovery' taking place. We had excessive loss in 07' but ,if you take that year away, the ice volume trend is still down wards (unless a 'recovery' means less and less year upon year?).

This summer is , apparently, in a 'cyclical cool down' pattern (so I'm told) and ,if so, why would we expect mega losses this summer? I think you'd only think this if you knew the ice was too thin to survive an 'average' Arctic summer?

As for winter 'refreeze' . Do you think any excess open water will take a lot of 'cooling' before ice can start to reform this winter or will this be instantaneous as well?

[cooling climate]

These must be very exciting times for you GW.

Can't wait for the next umpteenth posts regarding impending doom, horror and thorough melting.

I'll go with Mr laminate floori. Lots of melt this summer, probably not as bad as 2007, with a big bounce back thereafter starting this winter.

Y.S

I doubt very much we will see anywhere near the melt that occurred during the summer of 2007

although a -AO during the summer would lead to increased melting than would otherwise happen.

Of course Jackanory same old story will disagree with this. Only pulling your leg GW your are of

course perfectly intitled to your opinions, and I love reading them over and over and over and over etc, etc

Edited May 12, 2010 by cooling climate

[Gray-Wolf]

and I love reading them over and over and over and over etc, etc

So sad that there is an end in sight and I'll have nothing to post about soon enough!

[Gray-Wolf]

Now that the 'external ice' is melting (Bering,Okhotsk,Barents) I've been looking inside the Arctic Basin to see how this is looking.

I think we'll see Beaufort, Chukchi and Arctic Basin proper start to drop off soon. If you look at Beaufort you'll see it holds a big potential for rapid melt as it is already well fragmented with areas of 'slush' now more visible. The Arctic Basin adjacent to Barents is also in a poor state.

As noted earlier the 'thin' nature of the pack this year will mean a lot more ice melts out 'in situ' which could mean a continued steep decline well into August.

The Buoy data shows a strong drift from the pole towards Fram so the early melt out of the ice in Fram seems to be leaving a 'void' that this section of the basin seems keen to fill. If our current 'northerly' regime keeps re-loading all summer this will take all of this ice into Barents and out through Fram.

The Buoys also shows a continued drift of the older ice from Beaufort across the front of Bering and if the pattern of weather that brought us the 'extra ice' over Feb/March continues then we may see this ice exit via Bering through July/Aug.

[Gray-Wolf]

Now where are all the long range forecasters when you need them? With 12 weeks of melt to go I'd have thought that one or two would combine Mr Serreze's 'wind and cloud' caution into solid ice extent figures by now!!!

All I have is an ENSO neutral and a low energy sun (lot's of Hurricane's to mash around the atlantic heat and a propensity towards H.P. in our neck of the woods)

I'm still not happy with what I see.With the current 'Bering to Fram' motion of all the buoys in the Basin you have to have a worry (don't you?) about all the open water the ice is pushing into. In the same way that Bering acted as an 'ice factory' over winters end surely sun kissed ocean with ice pushed into it is a bad formula for ice retention?

We need an active Arctic Gyre to keep all the ice central (and colder) for as long as poss. with lots of cloud/fog across it.