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The Decline Of April


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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

A letter by L. Protheroe Smith of Nevern Square London written on the 3rd of May of 1937

"April has been once again a cloudy unsettled month and for the 16th time in 20 years its aggregate of rain at Greenwich has exceeded the official average.

From 1881 to 1915, April was the driest month of the year at that station. Since then, however, its mean fall of rain has increased by nearly 45%, making it, for the period 1917-1936, the fourth wettest month of the twelve. for the country as a whole the increase is in the neighbourhood of 25%.

Coincident with the increased rainfall, and equally striking, has been the reduction in April sunshine

during the last two decades. For whereas, prior to 1917, the expectation of sunny hours at Kew was 158, it has shrunk to about 128, representing the loss of an hour a day. In all except 3 of the last 19 Aprils, there gas been a sunshine deficit, compare to the 1881-1915 standard.

During the 22 years ending in 1914, there were 7 Aprils yielding more than 200 sunny hours apiece, which is equal to the normal allowance for june. In a similiar period of time since 1915, there has not been one such April. Besides which, the last 18 years have brought forth the two dullest Aprils ever known at Kew since regristration was begun there in 1880.

It is interesting to note that, while the quality of April has detiorated that of September has undergone improvement in modern times; the month having becoming drier, sunnier and warmer than it once was. It would appear, in short, that summer nowadays is tending to begin and finish rather later. At the same time, February shows a disposition to supplant January as the coldest month of the year.

Thus, while no appreciable change of climate as a whole is easily discerned, it seems as though a slight forward shift of the seasons may be taking place at present, modifying the character of some individual months."

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

I for one am pleased that April is looking colder this year, as it did in 2006. In 2006, we had a long and very hot summer after a bitterly cold March/April. In 2007-2009, April was generally dry and at times very warm, which were followed by wet and unsettled summers, with the exception of the SE last year which (IMO) had a very good summer.

Fingers crossed that the poor April (which judging by ECMWF is to get a LOT poorer) will yield a cracking summer! :rolleyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I would personally be more concerned by the fact April has been more high pressure dominated thus far. If there is any pattern consequence to summer which many say there isn't then I'd rather have unsettled weather in March/April then warm settled weather in early-mid summer. I fear it's about patterns rather than temperature! (If it can work this way)

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Theres no proven link between the patterns in April and what occurs in the following summer. In recent times, we've had good summers followed by a varity of Aprils. April 2007 was very warm and anticyclonic and followed by a poor summer, but then April 2003 was similarly warm and anticyclonic but followed by a good summer.

Likewise on the other end of the spectrum, April 1998 and 2008 were both rather cool and unsettled affairs but preceded summers that were generally cool and wet aswell.

We had the same pattern-matching being applied suggesting a mild winter during the Autumn last year and needless to say there was very little success there!

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

How I thought the same thing about the Aprils from 1991-2006 compared to those of the 80s and 2007/9. And how the late 30s saw a return to colder winters. Recently we seem to have come to the end of December being consistently colder than February which was the case in the 90s.

But the real difference is how bad June has been in the last 25 years, as far as rainfall and sunshine are concerned, compared to the late 19th and much of the 20th centuries.

Born in 1979, at the age of 30 I have seen 8 Junes with more than 100mm precipitation by the EWP average, the same as my great-grandmother born in 1893 saw in her entire life of 98 years (until Feb 1991). 4 of them came after she had turned 80; she had only seen one by the time she was my age.

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Posted
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy weather in winter. Dry and warm in summer.
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL

I have enjoyed the weather so far this month, especially this past week. Theres been some lovely sunny days lately and the temperatures have been warm enough to just wear a t-shirt in the middle of the day. Last week I had a wonderful walk on the Northumberland coast, there were some excellent views and I could see the huge patches of snow on Cheviot glistening in the sun.

Hopefully the progged northerly will come off so the month will have had a good variety of weather this month just like April should be in my opinion. April - 'The month of variety'.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Looking at the figures

April 1881-1916 CET average: 8.0C

April 1917-1936 CET average: 7.5C

Rainfall for England and Wales

April 1881-1916 rainfall average: 55.7mm

April 1917-1936 rainfall avearge: 67.4mm

Sunshine at Kew

April 1881-1916 sunshine average: 160.7hrs

April 1917-1936 sunshine average: 128.8hrs

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

How I thought the same thing about the Aprils from 1991-2006 compared to those of the 80s and 2007/9. And how the late 30s saw a return to colder winters. Recently we seem to have come to the end of December being consistently colder than February which was the case in the 90s.

But the real difference is how bad June has been in the last 25 years, as far as rainfall and sunshine are concerned, compared to the late 19th and much of the 20th centuries.

Born in 1979, at the age of 30 I have seen 8 Junes with more than 100mm precipitation by the EWP average, the same as my great-grandmother born in 1893 saw in her entire life of 98 years (until Feb 1991). 4 of them came after she had turned 80; she had only seen one by the time she was my age.

I think April is another of those months that declined more especially in the 2000s. I have some fond memories of Aprils 1994, 1995 and 1999, and April 1997 was a dry sunny warm month in the south, albeit a dull one in the north.

I agree with the point regarding Junes- interestingly the Junes of the 2000s were much warmer than those of the 1980s and 1990s, finally bringing June into line with the underlying warming trend, but they remained cloudy & wet for the most part especially in the north. The downturn in sunshine and increase in rainfall in June started more than 25 years ago- it kicked off in the late 1970s. Much of England and Wales did have a string of decent Junes from 1992-96 though.

In the meantime the run of comparitively cold Decembers in recent years has continued to amaze me. I can't say the same for October, for while October hasn't warmed significantly in the last 30 years it warmed more dramatically than any other calendar month between 1900 and 1970.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Yeah TWS December since 1989 have been consistnatly lacking long very mild perios like we saw in the 80s and 70s (after the big downturn in the 60s) 2000-2009 Decembers averaged just 4.7c which is a 0.4c drop from the 71-000 average and exactly inline with the 61-90 mean.

90s averaged an even lower 4.6c. Which is a drop on both averages.

It is the only month that has seen a drop. And quite a big drop too.

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

I think April is another of those months that declined more especially in the 2000s. I have some fond memories of Aprils 1994, 1995 and 1999, and April 1997 was a dry sunny warm month in the south, albeit a dull one in the north.

I agree with the point regarding Junes- interestingly the Junes of the 2000s were much warmer than those of the 1980s and 1990s, finally bringing June into line with the underlying warming trend, but they remained cloudy & wet for the most part especially in the north. The downturn in sunshine and increase in rainfall in June started more than 25 years ago- it kicked off in the late 1970s. Much of England and Wales did have a string of decent Junes from 1992-96 though.

In the meantime the run of comparitively cold Decembers in recent years has continued to amaze me. I can't say the same for October, for while October hasn't warmed significantly in the last 30 years it warmed more dramatically than any other calendar month between 1900 and 1970.

I can never, ever remember a June which was warm, dry and sunny for the vast majority of the month in the manner of July 1983/2006, August 1995, September 2006, April 2007. The last one sems to have been 1976 which was before my time. 1994, 1995, 2005 had good second halves, 2006 a superb first half and 1992 was fine from about the 10th onwards; but none have managed to maintain it throughout. Strangely the same is true of May (even the otherwise perfect May 1992 had a rather cool and unsettled first 10 days) but the difference is that May has rarely been a washout (2006-7 excepted) whereas June regularly is.

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  • 2 weeks later...
April 2007 was very warm and anticyclonic and followed by a poor summer

Yes and the last three springs before this one have been pretty dry too which raises concerns for the summer ahead, last April was warm and the summer was rather poor outside of the southeast, second half of April 2008 i remember the countryside being dry and looked what happened in that summer, three poor summers in a row for many parts of the UK maybe three isn't the magic number afterall and that four is ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Though Spring 2008 was wet throughout, especially March and May. Even with a warm spell in the second week of May, it turned out wet. That also heralded a wet summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

If we accept the stat's then low solar = more atlantic blocking (as we see) and so summer may well be cool (shade temps) but sunny ( bloody hot by day and chilly by night).

If this pans out then Fram will exit the last of the perennial ice to boot.......sorry , it's my nature.....

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  • 11 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

April has been quite a reliably nice month in the 2000s bar 2008 and 2000. I think May has been the most fickle.

Where May and June, I think, have equally been washout months since I've been alive, only once have they both been, that being 2007.

One thing I have noticed decline considerably in April is the number of 'sunshine and showers' days. This is the same in March. In contrast, they seem to have increased somewhat in May - 2002, 2003 and 2006 being great examples.

Considering we are in the UK, I very much doubt we will have a complete month where it will be settled throughout. Even July 2006 had a cool blip between 6th-12th and in the closing days. May 2004, possibly the nicest May I can remember, was very wet in the first 10 days with 2 fantastic thunderstorms.

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