Will The Volcano Have Any Effect On Our Spring/summer ?

[John Snow]

With the volcano over Iceland today causing chaos is there likely to be any longer term effects like a colder summer or indeed a hotter summer ?

[Marcus_surfer]

With the volcano over Iceland today causing chaos is there likely to be any longer term effects like a colder summer or indeed a hotter summer ?

No i don't think so, when the next atlantic systems move in on a westerly wind, the cloud of ash will be pushed away.

[Ben_Cambs]

Not at all, it would take a much larger eruption for an effect on our summer climate.

[The PIT]

Not at all too small.

[paulh]

Intresting info on Wiki about Eyjafjallajökull and how historically it has triggered off the other Volcano Katla.

that might cause some effect!

Eyjafjallajökull and Katla

Over the past 1,100 years, Eyjafjallajökull has erupted four times: in 920, 1612, between 1821–1823, and in 2010. Each of the first three of these incidents directly preceded a major eruption in the nearby subglacial volcano, Katla.

There is so far no evidence that Katla will erupt because of its vicinity to the current eruption in Fimmvörðuháls mountain pass. Katla, which is a much more active volcano, known for its powerful subglacial eruptions and its large magma chamber, much larger than that of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano system, has still not shown any unusual activity, like expansion of the crust or seismic activity.

However, one can not rule out that possibility, since history has shown that Eyjafjallajökull can be a precursor to additional Katla activity. Some geophysicists in Iceland support the notion that the recent volcanic eruption at Eyjafjallajökull may trigger a second eruption at Katla, which would cause a major flooding event due to melting of glacial ice.

[stewfox]

Not at all, it would take a much larger eruption for an effect on our summer climate.

Mount Tambora errupted in 1815 and large parts of the Northern hempishere had a poor summer in 1816 which i understand was related to that. Know as 'the year without a summer'.

How many factors larger that was or how much stuff stays up there (and isnt was away by the next frontal system i dont know).

[Optimus Prime]

Perhaps on Co2 levels with less aircraf flying lol.

[londonsnow]

this from a pilot friend of mine

> THE SCIENCE OF IT ALL...

>

> Aircraft avoid any airspace that has volcanic ash in it for a simple

> reason: the ash can wreck the function of propeller or jet aircraft,

> because it is so fine that it will invade the spaces between rotating

> machinery and jam it – the silica melts at about 1,100C and fuses on

> to the turbine blades and nozzle guide vanes (another part of the

> turbine assembly), which in modern aircraft operate at 1,400C.

>

> That, in turn, can be catastrophic – as the crew of two aircraft,

> including a British Airways Boeing 747, discovered in 1982 when they

> flew through an ash cloud from the Galunggung volcano in Indonesia. On

> both planes, all four engines stopped; they dived from 36,000ft (11km)

> to 12,000ft before they could restart them and make emergency

> landings.

>

> That's not the only problem. Ash can pit the windscreens of the

> pilot's cabin, damage the fuselage and light cover, and even coat the

> plane so much that it becomes tail-heavy. At runways, ash creates an

> extra problem because takeoffs and landings will throw it into the air

> again – where the engines can suck it in and it will create horrific

> damage to moving parts that suddenly find themselves in contact.

>

> The Icelandic plume has been thrown to between 6km and 11km into the

> atmosphere – exactly the height that aircraft would be flying.

>

> Passengers on the BA flight that hit the cloud in 1982 said the

> engines looked unusually bright: soon after all four flamed out. "I

> don't believe it – all four engines have failed!" said the flight

> engineer. The crew were prepared to ditch, and the captain told the

> passengers: "Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We

> have a small problem. All four engines have stopped. We are doing our

> damnedest to get them under control. I trust you are not in too much

> distress."

>

> Luckily, three of the engines could be restarted. The plane landed

> safely, and nobody was injured.

>

> The problem with such ash is that it is extremely fine – less than 2mm

> in diameter, and in the case of fine ash only 6 microns in diameter –

> which means that it is easily carried by the wind; and because it is

> ejected by enormously hot air from a volcano it will often be thrown

> high into the jetstream at exactly the height that aircraft like to

> fly. The ash particles' light weight means that they will then remain

> there, dispersing so slowly it can take two to three years for them to

> vanish.

>

> The measures taken today – clearing UK airspace from noon until at

> least 6pm – are a precaution, but a sensible one. Once ash has got

> into an engine, it is all but impossible to remove because it is so

> fine; no amount of washing will get every piece out. It pollutes

> filtration systems, electrical and avionic units – and the

> accompanying sulphuric acid aerosol can eat into rubber parts.

>

> In all, more than 60 planes have been written off by ash damage. The

> US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration put the benefit to

> aviation of better avoidance of volcanic ash at around $58m annually.

>

> For that reason, the world is split into nine regions, each with its

> own volcanic ash advisory centre; the one covering Iceland and the UK

> is based in London. The London one put out an advisory last night but

> its forecast for the progress of the cloud suggests that it will have

> spread widely over northern Europe by the early hours of Friday

> morning.

[The PIT]

Mount Tambora errupted in 1815 and large parts of the Northern hempishere had a poor summer in 1816 which i understand was related to that. Know as 'the year without a summer'.

How many factors larger that was or how much stuff stays up there (and isnt was away by the next frontal system i dont know).

That was a huge eruption VEI 7 and this present one doesn't come anywhere near it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Tambora

[MR EXTREMES]

i think in this case it makes no difference but what is more intresting is adding together the amount of volcanic activity globally.

although this is minor eruption i think its sign of things to come,

why do i think this!,

earth quake and volcanic go hand in hand there has been some major earth quakes over the last few years add in the volcanic acitivity which seems to come after quake activity.

i have a feeling theres plent more to come the and soon enough the climate will show what mother nature can really do.

[Coast]

Don't forget folks, general discussion about the Icelandic volcano and its fallout is going on here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/60584-volcanic-activity-thread

This thread is to give your view or opinion on if it will effect the weather during the coming spring and summer months.

[AderynCoch]

It depends how long it keeps going for, or whether related eruptions will follow (see Katla). In the short term there's nothing to take note of except the possibility of extra-nice sunsets and sporadic dust falls.

Edited April 15, 2010 by AderynCoch

[summer blizzard]

It is unlikely that this eruption will have any major effect on our weather, aside from a possible localised cooling due to cloud cover if the eruption were to go on for weeks, though it is unlikely that we will see noth westerly winds persisting that long.

The eruption column os estimated to be around 12km high, which makes this a VEI3 eruption, however should we see the eruption column get to 16km high with another eruptive burst, then a VEI4 eruption would be occuring which is sufficient to be classed as a major volcanic eruption.

[LomondSnowstorm]

It is unlikely that this eruption will have any major effect on our weather, aside from a possible localised cooling due to cloud cover if the eruption were to go on for weeks, though it is unlikely that we will see noth westerly winds persisting that long.

Of course if we did, we'd surely have a cooler than average summer anyway!

[kold weather]

It's hard to call really, it probably won't have a global impact but for mid latitude locations inthe N.Hemisphere it could have an impact, if it keeps spewing out enough So2 then thats eventually going to promote a slightly warmer Stratosphere then normal which in turn could well lead eventually to a posible -ve AO which of course will help to promote cold shots into the Mid-Latitudes. All depends on how long this one lasts for, however any impacts it does have could end up being over-riden by other global factors as well...

[TEITS]

It depends how long it keeps going for, or whether related eruptions will follow (see Katla).

Indeed which is why nobody can really answer the question.

I doubt this will have any impact on our spring or summer. However this eruption could last for many months and if this is the case then its possible this could cause a slight cooling this winter.

[Weather-history]

The only impact I have seen from this volcanic eruption thus far is in aviation disruption. The sunsets have been nothing special, the ones after the Russian eruption of last year were more spectacular. Last summer wasn't as poor as its predecessors but the following winter was notable, though.

Edited April 18, 2010 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

It probably won't have much of an impact on global temps but if it carries on going for a long time it may have an impact eventually on our synoptics because typically the stratosphere tends to warm up in these events with big So2 releases into the stratosphere and that obviously can promote -ve AO spells so its something to watch, esp after how negative last winter was with that regard!

So whilst the N.Hemisphere may not cool, it may cause the distrubtion of above/below average temps to be shifted about somewhat.

[tinybill]

It probably won't have much of an impact on global temps but if it carries on going for a long time it may have an impact eventually on our synoptics because typically the stratosphere tends to warm up in these events with big So2 releases into the stratosphere and that obviously can promote -ve AO spells so its something to watch, esp after how negative last winter was with that regard!

So whilst the N.Hemisphere may not cool, it may cause the distrubtion of above/below average temps to be shifted about somewhat.

bit off topic sky are showing pictures off finnsh air forch planes damaged by the ash cloud plus there no planes till at least tuesday it looks like

live video link

http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk/

Edited April 18, 2010 by tinybill

[joggs]

It probably won't have much of an impact on global temps but if it carries on going for a long time it may have an impact eventually on our synoptics because typically the stratosphere tends to warm up in these events with big So2 releases into the stratosphere and that obviously can promote -ve AO spells so its something to watch, esp after how negative last winter was with that regard!

So whilst the N.Hemisphere may not cool, it may cause the distrubtion of above/below average temps to be shifted about somewhat.

Firstly a quick question. If the volcano keeps its activity up for a few weeks, how long can the symptoms it causes i.e strato warming, dust slightly blocking out the sun, last?

[Thundery wintry showers]

The volcanic ash has definitely been making a significant impact on Norwich's weather today, and to a lesser extent this was also true yesterday. We don't have a particularly polluted airmass source, yet the upper atmosphere appears exceptionally dusty with considerable scattering of sunlight and orange skies around where the sun is. In contrast there is a layer of "clean" air with little scattering of sunlight near the surface.

[willinkent]

It is 15c outside but in my heat gtrap of a garden in sun its 27c and feels lovely.... plus according to gfs mite breach 22c next week..... woohoo.... bring it on and change in wind so no more ash..... ps looking at www.flightradar24.com/ can see the planes coming over the estaury in sky and see where they are going. Most taking off from Frankfurt n Amsterdam to USA/Canada.... noting none from brussels/london....

Edited April 20, 2010 by willinkent