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Polar Ice


Gray-Wolf

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Predicting yes, will it actually happen? And if it does what does that prove, that AGW caused it? Of course not!!

If you look to the 'history' of the Arctic and what the scientists tell us you are left with a situation that has not occurred before (in our current planetary positioning) so we need to look for 'something more' to have been that final push that cost us the essential 'perennial ice' that allowed permanent summer ice cover at the pole..

Why look for something else when there is a plausible reason, already on the table, for what we have measured over the past 150yrs?

Every other 'possible' is cyclical in nature so surely we have plenty of 'other times' to compare with today?, human beings, and their inputs, are not and so we would expect not past precedents to look at and compare with.

The readership will decide for themselves whether it was our 'unique' input that have thrown things out of kilter or whether it is just a 'normal cyclical swing'...... but if it is where is the past evidence for such???

Pretty disastrous drops over the past few days eh?

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Plenty of time yet for it to go either way. although I can tell you're enjoying it.

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs

If you look to the 'history' of the Arctic and what the scientists tell us you are left with a situation that has not occurred before (in our current planetary positioning) so we need to look for 'something more' to have been that final push that cost us the essential 'perennial ice' that allowed permanent summer ice cover at the pole..

Why look for something else when there is a plausible reason, already on the table, for what we have measured over the past 150yrs?

Every other 'possible' is cyclical in nature so surely we have plenty of 'other times' to compare with today?, human beings, and their inputs, are not and so we would expect not past precedents to look at and compare with.

The readership will decide for themselves whether it was our 'unique' input that have thrown things out of kilter or whether it is just a 'normal cyclical swing'...... but if it is where is the past evidence for such???

Pretty disastrous drops over the past few days eh?

Again what proxies where used to come to this conclusion?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Plenty of time yet for it to go either way. although I can tell you're enjoying it.

Pit, this is the pre-cursor to a rapid climate shift that could well do for over a third of humans alive today. There is no pleasure in watching the inevitable running it's course. There is some (wrong) satisfaction in being shown to be right when most voices were crying 'recovery'. Both on a personal level in that I have correctly gagged the information we all receive and also as a human being who stuck to his guns in the face of insult and abuse only to be proved correct.

There is no 'time yet' Pit. This is not last year, nor the year before (those years merely destroyed the remaining chance the Arctic had of 'recovering'). All that ice is no more and we have a thin pack of seasonal ice facing a warm summer (enhanced, it would seem, by the low solar we've heard so much about!!!).

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

Pit, this is the pre-cursor to a rapid climate shift that could well do for over a third of humans alive today. There is no pleasure in watching the inevitable running it's course. There is some (wrong) satisfaction in being shown to be right when most voices were crying 'recovery'. Both on a personal level in that I have correctly gagged the information we all receive and also as a human being who stuck to his guns in the face of insult and abuse only to be proved correct.

There is no 'time yet' Pit. This is not last year, nor the year before (those years merely destroyed the remaining chance the Arctic had of 'recovering'). All that ice is no more and we have a thin pack of seasonal ice facing a warm summer (enhanced, it would seem, by the low solar we've heard so much about!!!).

Thankyou Mr Doom.

You really believe all that don't you.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Hey folks, disagree by all means but please do it politely without taking swipes at each other - none of you do yourselves any favours when the sniping sneaks in.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Yes I do believe that 4wd. I'm firmly aligned to the Lovelokian version of climate change and ,from reading his accounts, pretty sure that Dr Barber knows what he's talking about.

The media circus over an 'ice free pole' a few years back (and the pole will be 'ice free' in parts this summer) most of the large Cryosphere dept.s try and be as conservative in their wording as they can to save them selves from such overt media attention. NSIDC always qualify their statements with a warning as to the poor state of the pack and it's constant loss of ice mass though.

Time will tell and we have a good 8 weeks of high ice losses ahead of us. If you consider the 'high extent' we started with at the very end of March the ice has preformed very poorly to find itself where it does at this point and ,by next week, things will be at their lowest ever recorded (I can already hear the chorus of 'we only have 'x' years of records as I type but this is how we do things today).

Again I would ask for you to paint a more 'reasonable assessment of what ice we have and what will become of it 4wd. We all know any fool can criticise after the point but being constructive and imaginative beforehand takes a bit more nous.smile.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

Yes I do believe that 4wd. I'm firmly aligned to the Lovelokian version of climate change and ,from reading his accounts, pretty sure that Dr Barber knows what he's talking about.

The media circus over an 'ice free pole' a few years back (and the pole will be 'ice free' in parts this summer) most of the large Cryosphere dept.s try and be as conservative in their wording as they can to save them selves from such overt media attention. NSIDC always qualify their statements with a warning as to the poor state of the pack and it's constant loss of ice mass though.

Time will tell and we have a good 8 weeks of high ice losses ahead of us. If you consider the 'high extent' we started with at the very end of March the ice has preformed very poorly to find itself where it does at this point and ,by next week, things will be at their lowest ever recorded (I can already hear the chorus of 'we only have 'x' years of records as I type but this is how we do things today).

Again I would ask for you to paint a more 'reasonable assessment of what ice we have and what will become of it 4wd. We all know any fool can criticise after the point but being constructive and imaginative beforehand takes a bit more nous.smile.gif

You really are upset about all this aren't you?

Look, we can all see what is happening up there but what no-one is able to tell or even guess at with any real insight what effect it will have.

I suggest the only thing to be done is to sit back and watch and wait, after all, there really is nothing we can do about it.

For all we know, it could have the opposite effect and send us spinning into the next ice age, it's bound to have a massive effect on circulatory systems and ocean currents, personally i'm fascinated with it, but am not building a spaceship ready to bail the planet....well not just yet :)

Oh and also...you used the word "nous", I just had to look that bugger up! :)

Edited by cyclonic happiness
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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs

So we have no idea what proxies where used to make such dramatic claims. Typical of the AGW bandwagon really. I for one grow tiresome of reading such drivel!

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

90,000km2 off being the lowest in the series now, just a day or two of further melting should do it.

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

Is Lovelockism a new religion :)

Anyway he said no point fretting about it, just stand back and watch - whether we did it or not it can't be stopped.

It's quite a jump to decide a couple of weeks below average ice will lead to a third of the population dying (how exactly?)

I'm sorry, but these over-blown doom laden predictions tend to attract ridicule of the entire environmental movement, and it would consequently be wise to resist including them in every other post.

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

Is Lovelockism a new religion rolleyes.gif

Anyway he said no point fretting about it, just stand back and watch - whether we did it or not it can't be stopped.

More like Lovecraftism - he was good at horror storieswhistling.gif . It's alright telling us to stop squabbling J,but can't see the harm in it if we're all about to be swept away by a tide of Arctic meltwater. Don't forget to switch off those standby buttons boys 'n' girls - there might still be a happy ending where all's well in the world and the polar bears live happily ever after.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

So we have no idea what proxies where used to make such dramatic claims. Typical of the AGW bandwagon really. I for one grow tiresome of reading such drivel!

yep im getting tired of listening to the same old same old theres not one single person that can really convince me of this rubbish wait and see.

total tosh.

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

The latest round of group throat-slitting stems from a recent graph purporting to show steady decline in volume.

I'm somewhat mystified how they have suddenly found a reliable means to measure ice volume over past decades when it has been generally agreed that we have very little information about volume - and it's still very difficult to get anything better than an estimate of volume today.

I think this magical newgraph came to light because through late winter the area graph, which had previously been a favourite for hand-wringing, started to show near average ice area.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I think it well overdue that some posters on here asked the 'experts' . I've always found Mark Serreze;

mailto:serreze@kryos.colorado.edu

one of the most approachable and informative folk to approach.

Do not listen to me if you choose but at least ask someone who has spent a lifetime in the field as to his take on things.

Oh!, and tell us what he says once you've bothered your butts to ask 'one who knows' otherwise we may all just feel you're blowin' it out of your own.......

I wonder how many of the whitterers has the magumba's to drop him a line with their questions? whistling.gifsmile.gif

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

I see Mark Serreze was saying there would be no ice at the pole in summer 2008 - so not my first choice for unbiased advice.

Clearly in the alarmist camp.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/exclusive-no-ice-at-the-north-pole-855406.html

Edited by 4wd
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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs

I see Mark Serreze was saying there would be no ice at the pole in summer 2008 - so not my first choice for unbiased advice.

Clearly in the alarmist camp.

http://www.independe...ole-855406.html

You beat me to it 4wd, it's amazing how some can post any old gibberish, but when someone post something on Natural cycles being responsible, we get all sorts of nonsense about the source being from a right wing blog.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I think if we look through the north pole cam library you'll find that this was quite true. I think you'll also find that the same will be true this year. The fact that the media misconstrued this to mean the whole of the central Arctic pack would be gone is another matter. I think you'll find that Mark has been quite 'P.C.' about statements since but always with the caveat that the Arctic is still not in good shape.

I'm sure I'll have opportunity to talk with you guys at summers end and ,by then, we'll have the ice thickness data from both 'IceBridge' and 'Cryosat2' to mull over too.

The wider readership should (I.M.H.O.) drop Mark a line to confirm their understandings over the 'state of the Arctic' and what He (Mark) feels will be the outcome of our present melt. Honest! he'll not bite!!!.

you could also try Dr Barber at;

dbarber@ms.umanitoba.ca

for some cutting edge info on the 'old perennial across the Canadian Archipelago and Beaufort sea.

It is not ,and never was, about my observations of the Arctic but the hard work of the folk who bring us our data and how their experience can guide us in our understandings of the state of the Arctic.

As the summer progresses we'll find more and more folk voicing their individual concerns about what IS occurring up North, you need ask "Why should this be?".

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Posted
  • Location: York, North Yorkshire
  • Location: York, North Yorkshire

I think if we look through the north pole cam library you'll find that this was quite true. I think you'll also find that the same will be true this year. The fact that the media misconstrued this to mean the whole of the central Arctic pack would be gone is another matter. I think you'll find that Mark has been quite 'P.C.' about statements since but always with the caveat that the Arctic is still not in good shape.

I'm sure I'll have opportunity to talk with you guys at summers end and ,by then, we'll have the ice thickness data from both 'IceBridge' and 'Cryosat2' to mull over too.

The wider readership should (I.M.H.O.) drop Mark a line to confirm their understandings over the 'state of the Arctic' and what He (Mark) feels will be the outcome of our present melt. Honest! he'll not bite!!!.

you could also try Dr Barber at;

dbarber@ms.umanitoba.ca

for some cutting edge info on the 'old perennial across the Canadian Archipelago and Beaufort sea.

It is not ,and never was, about my observations of the Arctic but the hard work of the folk who bring us our data and how their experience can guide us in our understandings of the state of the Arctic.

As the summer progresses we'll find more and more folk voicing their individual concerns about what IS occurring up North, you need ask "Why should this be?".

Please, please can you address why the 1930's and early to mid 1940's saw sea surface temperatures monitored around the polar region as registering as as warm if not warmer than now ..... you can google search the newletter items of the day (there have been recent posts on this site staing the same) as the 'unprecedented reductions' in polar ice were being reported.

Then there came the turn around ... peeking in the late 1970's, then another turnaround ........ as so on and so on ..... Blah balah blah !! .... coincidence this all occurred with the turn in PDO from -ve to positive)

Y.S

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Do you accept that the "clean air acts" were a good thing Y.S.? Do you accept the findings of our impacts over the 40's through 80's at the hands of 'global dimming'? Do you find it so difficult to understand that we merely 'delayed' today by our pollution post war?

I/We have never discounted 'natural variation' in ice cover.

What we DO dispute is the loss of the 'banker' of perennial ice across the pole THIS time around.

Bring me your evidence for open water to match the past 15 yrs of ice loss and open summer waters (we are now measuring diatoms/foramoniffera, that need open water to live, across the areas that we have seen 'open water' now present over the last 15yrs so surely, if you are correct, the evidence of this is there from the 30's/40's and ,try as I might, I find none), show me the methane peak from that era (as we are measuring now) and we can say it was more than just the 'start' of what we see today temporarily stalled through our sulfurous outputs as we (developed world) went industrially bonkers.

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

Evasive subject changing.

There are numerous reports of 'worrying ice loss' from the early part of 20th century.

Nothing particularly exceptional is going on at present, and those promoting the idea that it's all about to melt disastrously appear to be exaggerating and manipulating the reporting from every possible angle.

The main protagonists have a vested interest in maintaining the imminent doom announcements, presumably to enhance their research funding.

Finding "nothing much out of the ordinary going on" would be a bit like turkeys voting for Christmas after all.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Evasive subject changing.

There are numerous reports of 'worrying ice loss' from the early part of 20th century.

Nothing particularly exceptional is going on at present, and those promoting the idea that it's all about to melt disastrously appear to be exaggerating and manipulating the reporting from every possible angle.

The main protagonists have a vested interest in maintaining the imminent doom announcements, presumably to enhance their research funding.

Finding "nothing much out of the ordinary going on" would be a bit like turkeys voting for Christmas after all.

Just a quick question. With regards ice extent, what kind of losses would have to happen for you consider it "out of the ordinary"?

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

Just a quick question. With regards ice extent, what kind of losses would have to happen for you consider it "out of the ordinary"?

that is a question i fear they would not be able to answer with any accuracy, seeing as they've not enough data from a long enough time to even know what "normal" is.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

'Normal' , to me ,is a pack with a majority perennial (which we saw the tail end of when we started taking sat. data) that enables the pack to endure the summer with minimal losses.

Abnormal is to have a pack that mimicks the southern ocean ice pack with only bay ice surviving the summer months.

Normal is having a pack that will support the weight of a Polar Bear (who evolved to hunt at the ice holes of seal over the spring breeding season) and not have that area so bereft of ice that the seal pups it hunts end up, brilliant white, on a stoney shoreline with no means of defence.

Normal is having sea ice over shallow,shell fish rich seas so the Walrus can feed from their icy islands above and not have them stranded in great numbers on Arctic/Russian coastlines.

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

Nothing like this stays the same over long time scales.

Your view of 'normal' is a snapshot from about 1830.

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