Chase 2010 - Day 3 Discussion

[NL]

The storm potential this evening is somewhat in comparison with last weekends event in Mississippi with the likelyhood of strong and fast moving storms (60+mph) so wherever you decide to chase stay-safe dudes..!! (I like what Roger has forecast with the southern area having more 'severe' potential, one to keep a close eye on.)

[Nick F]

i think today's severe potential will be more limited somewhat by moisture return compared to the Mississippi event, any storms developing will have fast motions, but atm would prefer to see higher dps over central KS, currently 56F Td at Medicine Lodge with a temp of 82F, there is moister air further south over OK/TX, but whether it will feed into the area before dusk - ideally want Td 60F+ at least ... certainly this will affect potential for tornadoes, though best area for tornadoes looks to be central KS atm.

[A.J]

just thought I'd pop in This link from Intellicast, showing visible satellite imagery from the NW storm-chase area...It looks close to real time (10 or so minute delay) It updates every 15 mins, and has a very useful pan & zoom facility

As you can see, a few isolated cumulus popping up to the SW of Salina

[kold weather]

The storm potential this evening is somewhat in comparison with last weekends event in Mississippi with the likelyhood of strong and fast moving storms (60+mph) so wherever you decide to chase stay-safe dudes..!! (I like what Roger has forecast with the southern area having more 'severe' potential, one to keep a close eye on.)

Yeah, the southern area does have higher instability and if the cap breaks then no doubt there will be some decent supercells further south. The problem is obviously going to be when the peak instablity arrives, which as Roger said isn't really till after dark, which isn't really what the chase team want, but as others have said, the southern area is better for instablity then the north, seems like the team are staddling the middle at the moment.

[nsrobins]

19Z RUC

Cap erodes in a narrow corridor as predicted within the veering windfield just ahead of the surface low currently consolidating above Dodge City area. Although I'm shifting initiation back an hour I still expect enough potential to develop sups in the Medicine Lodge/Pratt region (MUCAPE here progged 1500 by 23Z) on the eastern fringe of the DL bulge in the next hour or so and disagree somewhat with the SPC with respect timings.

Where you are just now looks OK to catch these by 00Z as they shuffle fairly rapidly NE.

[Gorky]

Team looks like they are in a great position. The CU is bubbling up on a line from Great Bend through Ellsworth and north of Salina. Another area further down towards Dodge City trying to get going. Cap will keep things locked down for a bit longer I think but I'm starting to think we might get something pop with a few hours of daylight/dusk left now...

Edit.. Looking at the stream, the cell over Ellsworth is really trying to make a go of it. Should be interesting to see how easily the cap keeps it down...

First convection of tour 1

Edited April 29, 2010 by Gorky

[Mesoscale]

The cumulus clouds are starting to bubble up!

Looking good i just wish i was there toooo!!!

damn college work! lol

[Gorky]

Hope the turn the camera.. I'm liking watching this thing go up

Edit::

Haha.. someone is listening

Edited April 29, 2010 by Gorky

[Stormyking]

I see a nice CB developing there I see, looking Interesting now .

Also same here Mesodiscussion I wish I never had college tomorrow

Edited April 29, 2010 by Stormyking

[Gorky]

Don't think that cell is gonna make it lol... looks somewhat anemic now.. Got to 32.5K according to Topeka Radar if that is accurate though....

[nsrobins]

Great bubble starting to fill the screen there, Nick. Hang tight, and look SW!

[Mesoscale]

yeah i agree its good but i have to go like now to watch crank 2 but ill be on after!!! ! i just wish my iphone could work the stream but no luck!!! lol

Edited April 29, 2010 by Mesodiscussion

[Nick F]

Yes, usually you get turkey towers for a while when the cu fields start bubbling up in places and hitting the cap. Eventually one rising parcel will break the cap with help of a strong updraft.

Here we go, kick off time, just N and NW of Salina:

[craig1uk]

SPC MD put the worst activity @ 100 miles nnw

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0349 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...EXTREME NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 292049Z - 292215Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW

HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN KS...NEWD INTO SWRN IA. WATCH WILL

LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 23Z.

BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED/DEEPENED ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED WIND SHIFT

THAT EXTENDS FROM SWRN KS...NEWD INTO WCNTRL IA. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC

DATA SUGGESTS SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC

ACROSS SWRN INTO CNTRL KS. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NOW

BREACHED ALONG THE WIND SHIFT...MOIST CONVECTION IS DEEPENING FROM

NEAR RSL TO CNK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE

NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT SPREADS NEWD ALONG ZONE OF LOW LEVEL

CONVERGENCE. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY MOST SUPERCELLS THAT

EVOLVE WITHIN MARGINALLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THAT CLOUD BASES

WILL INITIALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000M...TORNADIC THREAT MAY BE

SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

Do you thimk they'll want to go that far north for the "limited " tornado risk?

[Gorky]

Given that it is still early, I reckon they will go after these current cells. Not sure they'll be able to keep up for too long. I'd expect more to back build along the dryline, so they'll probably head north somewhat, then stair step back south so as not to be too far out of position for tomorrow...

[Nick F]

Cloud bases look quite high due to moisture constraints in the boundary layer ... so tornado potential would seem low for now, despite good wind fields.

[Gorky]

Think they'll probably try and core punch one of the storms as it crosses the interstate. Showing half inch hail atm. I'd expect it to be a bit bigger by the time they get there... :unsure: I know what Paul is like. Gotta run the new cars in...

[NL]

Severe Td's warnin for the teams location.

234

WUUS53 KTOP 292125

SVRTOP

KSC029-143-292200-

/O.NEW.KTOP.SV.W.0032.100429T2125Z-100429T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS

425 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CLOUD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 423 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12

MILES SOUTHWEST OF DELPHOS...OR 15 MILES WEST OF MINNEAPOLIS...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

DELPHOS...

GLASCO...

CONCORDIA...

AURORA...

[Paul]

Stream a bit jumpy at the moment as they must be in a poor signal area, should improve soon with any luck as kansas is generally pretty good.

Nice to see them heading toward a decent looking cell judging by the gps and radar though!

[Gorky]

GRLevel 3 indicates baseball sized hail with the storm

Those pooooor cars :unsure:

Edited April 29, 2010 by Gorky

[NL]

Tornado watch

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 108

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

440 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHWEST IOWA

NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS

EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI

SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 440 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST OF OMAHA

NEBRASKA TO 5 MILES NORTH OF RUSSELL KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE

DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE

(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SLOWLY

RETREATING DRYLINE...ON THE NOSE OF THE HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND

DEEP MIXED LAYER EXTENDING NEWD INTO CENTRAL KS. INITIALLY...THE

ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND LOW-LEVEL

MOISTURE INCREASES GRADUALLY...THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR A

COUPLE OF TORNADOES WITH STORMS MOVING NEWD ALONG THE

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT.

[Nick F]

Cell the team are watching over the Hwy 81 just south of Concordia, KS now the dominant storm for 100s miles sq and should make good use of the available moisture, which has still yet to recover to 60F over central KS, 57F Tds and 84F temp at Salina. Hopefully should see bases lower with moistening of the boundary layer from the storm and from injection of moisture from the south. Whether it will be enough to get a tornado before dark remains to be seen, but at least storms are isolated/discrete which helps.

[Gorky]

Storm appears to be splitting right now. After it's crossed the interstate, it'll be interested if the team try and chase on the more minor roads. Will be interesting to see what the left split does...

[CardiffStorm]

Looking at other streaming sites, there are a lot of chasers heading exactly the same route as the Netweather team

[Nick F]

Looking at other streaming sites, there are a lot of chasers heading exactly the same route as the Netweather team

Not surprising when it's the only storm for miles around and chasers will tend to head towards the rain-free area of the storm which is usually the south side.

Base still looks rather too high for my liking for a tornado potential, though I imagine it's throwing out big hail and some nice cgs.