Chase 2010 - Day 5 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

We will be starting Sat 1st May in Springfield (Missouri) with a Chase Target of El Dorado in Southern Arkansas. Am expecting SPC To Upgrade the Slight to a Moderate Risk on their next few Updates, again we could be looking at a few Strong Tornadoes! I am expecting a Line of Storms to fire in Eastern Texas early on and once again Discrete Supercells should form ahead of the Line with Temps in the Lower 80's and Dewpoints in the High 60's to around 70f Mark. Storms should rattle towards the North East and the plan will be to pick them off from the South East. Am hoping the Storms fire earlier than the Deadly Tornadoes of yesterday that affected the Little Rock area. Our Route to target also goes straight through Van Buren County which has suffered extensive damage with trees and Power Lines down across roads so that is also something to be consious of.

Paul S & Team

[SteveB]

Good luck today, looks like your in the right position.

[pottyprof]

Just been looking trough various sites and flash flood warnings are in place for a large part of Arkansas. Might not be a problem free trip with regards to this as well Paul.

As always.. Stay safe guys!!

[Gorky]

My personal preference for today would be more east and less south. Again, mainly due to terrain concerns. I was in Eldorado 2 years back and it still pretty hilly down that way with plenty of trees.. No where as bad as Central AR or up through MO but it only starts to flatten out a county east. There was a small area north of town with some ok views but nothing spectacular from what I remember. I don't think storms in this area will be a problem, in fact a lot of parameters are maxed down here so at first glance it appears a perfect choice but terrain is always a concern!.

My thoughts are we'll get a line of broken storms firing through Eldorado area right up through to the MO Bootheel. Storms should be forming in an ideal location up into East AR where it is beuatifully flat around the Mississippi River flood plains. This threat should move in TN and MS with Memphis being in the firing line later on. A second area of concern would be later on back into OK and TX on the cold front, though this probably wont be in such great chase territory.

I don't think today will be a late start so I'd head off for wherever you target pretty quickly. My vitual chase location will be Brinkly on the I40 between Memphis and Little Rock, but I would be happy anywhere on a line NNE to SSW of there by 100 miless either way!

(Note all this is based of the 6z NAM) Once we get the 12Z RUC I'll probably update my ideas!)

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Nathan

Yeah that Target was on yesterdays Models runs and since looking at this morning I am going to go for more Eastern Arkansas, but somewhere near to a River Crossing over the Mississippi, the other swinging factor is our route South would have taken us through Van Buren County which has been smashed to pieces, areas around Scotland, Clinton etc have trees and power lines down everywhere down there.

Am leaving at 3pm Uk Time (9am CDT) To get well into position and then see what unfolds, but could be a particulary nasty day once again.

Paul S

[kold weather]

The 0z WRF is suggesting MO actually would be a decent place to be again, maybe not far from where the team are now....however the other models do suggest things will be both sooner and further SE then the WRF so for now I'd go SE....its a balancing act though because too far east and the instablity could be somewhat more limited by the clud cover remains of the MCS overnight.

The teams chase target looks good for daytime cells it seems with plenty of convection already firing, though some models put the best instablity back up in MO....but don't really blow things up till the late eveing hours like yesterday....indeed the WRF is utterly explosive in the early morning period on Sunday with some severe storms in AR....so it'd be an idea to stay in AR tonight and watch possibly a great show come to you as well!

As Gorky said this won't be a late start in at least AR, so best get moving soon, as things are already developing on the radar.

[Paul Sherman]

Brinkley looks a good bet actually, on the Main Interstate, with a few road options and at least 2 River crossings to the east and south east.

We will be leaving at 9am and heading East then Ssouth East

Regards

Paul S

[Gorky]

It's a good 4 hour drive south Little Rock alone and that route takes you through the Van Buren County Damage path. Heading East then South (my preferred route in case of early convection up near the Bootheel) would be Highway 60, onto HW 63 at willow springs, but that was hit by a tornado last night also so possible damage there to worry about! From there, SE through West Plains to Jonesboro would be a good route to an east target. Both Little Rock and Jonesboro are 4 hour drives but Jonesboro keeps you further East and less likely to be playing catchup. I wouldn't be surprised to see storms fired by this sort of time frame.

SPC seems to have the biggest Tor threat up towards NE AR, though I imagine that will get expanded south with the next update. Should be quite a chaseable day for an AR event.

Ahhh.. seems you have the same idea. I like that it leaves a NE option open as well. I wouldn't be willing to ignore a possible Bootheel Chase up around Caruthersville, MO

[Paul Sherman]

Yep already mapped that exact same route Nath!

Going to be pretty on the Stream on the way to target But once we get east should flatten out considerably

Off for shower and rally the troops.

[Gorky]

You wouldn't believe it but first Tor warning of the day already lol.. East of Memphis on the MCS left over from last nights system... Looks pretty good on radar, and it says something about the possibilites for today that things are already spinning! Good Luck guys!

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Good luck today, looking forward to watching the stream again later, looks like it's working well with the two providers this year.

[Gorky]

SPC MD indicates they are goign for high risk with some very strong wording.

Large High risk across much of AR, Western TN, and SE MO.

Awaiting probs....

[Arron]

Yup just seen they've gone high risk with 30% bang over our target area! Going to be a fun day I think

[Gorky]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0756 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

..THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AR...MS

TN AND

THE MO BOOTHEEL...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA

OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS...LWR TN AND LWR OH VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS

FROM E TX NEWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY...

..SYNOPSIS

HIGH AMPLITUDE CNTRL STATES TROUGH WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY E THIS

PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED NRN PLAINS UPR LOW REMAINS QSTNRY AND ATTENDANT

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING CHIHUAHUA SHEARS ENE ACROSS W

TX...OK...AND...BY SUN MORNING...KS/MO. MID/UPR LVL

SPEED MAX WITH THE CHIHUAHUA SYSTEM WILL REDEVELOP NE INTO N TX/OK

BY THIS EVE...AND FURTHER EXPAND NE ACROSS MID MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS

EARLY SUN.

AT THE SFC...MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY FROM LWR MI

TO E TX TODAY...WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY OVERNIGHT

STORMS LIKELY TO LIFT SLOWLY N ACROSS AR AND THE LWR TN VLY. A WAVE

SHOULD FORM OVER NE TX OR THE ARKLATEX LATER TODAY...NEAR

INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH FRONT. THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK

NNE INTO THE LWR OH VLY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN.

..E TX/LWR MS VLY INTO THE LWR TN/LWR OH VLYS THROUGH TONIGHT

WSW-ENE ORIENTED QLCS OVER THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS MAY FURTHER WEAKEN

LATER THIS MORNING AS WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD REGION AND SFC

TEMPERATURES REACH DIURNAL MINIMUMS. SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED

INFLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR SHOULD...HOWEVER...SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF

SOME STORMS IN WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MCS BY EARLY AFTN...WITH

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TO ITS S OVER SRN/CNTRL AR AND NRN

MS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTN OVER NE

TX AND SE OK...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM CHIHUAHUA UPR

IMPULSE INCREASES ATOP SHALLOW FRONT.

COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE /PW 1.50-1.75

INCHES WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR

SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND S OF MCS OUTFLOW

BOUNDARY AND E OF FRONT...WITH SBCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 2000 J/KG

WITH MINIMAL CINH. COUPLED WITH STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW TO MID LVL

WIND FIELD...SETUP COULD SUPPORT SCTD SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH

TORNADOES/SVR HAIL.

AS THE CHIHUAHUA SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPR LVL SPEED MAX /WITH

250 MB FLOW AROUND 150 KTS/ CONTINUE NEWD LATER THIS AFTN AND

TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM SLY LLJ SHOULD MARKEDLY INCREASE OVER THE LWR

MS AN TN VLYS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF EXISTING

STORMS...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...FROM THE ARKLATEX

E/NEWD INTO THE LWR TN AND LWR OH VLYS THROUGH THE

EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

60 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND DEEPLY-MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH NEARLY

UNIDIRECTIONAL MID/UPR LVL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL ECHO

TRAINING/LEWPS AS SFC WAVE TRACKS NE TOWARD THE OH VLY. THE SETUP

ULTIMATELY MAY SUPPORT MULTIPLE CORRIDORS HAVING A POTENTIAL FOR

STRONG TORNADOES FROM MUCH OF AR AND NRN MS NEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL

TN...WRN/CNTRL KY AND PERHAPS SRN IL/SRN INDIANA TONIGHT/EARLY SUN.

..MIDDLE/UPR OH VLY

ERN END OF AFOREMENTIONED QLCS SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS ERN KY AND

CNTRL/ERN OH THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION

AND MODEST LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW MAY SUPPORT A MODEST SVR THREAT

/DMGG WINDS OR AN ISOLD TORNADO/ THROUGH EARLY EVE. ADDITIONAL

STRONG TO SVR ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD

/AFTER 06Z SUN/ AS SFC WAVE MOVES NE TOWARD THE LWR OH VLY AND

ASSOCIATED LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER ERN KY/OH.

[kold weather]

Yeah Gorky today thermodynamics are pretty similar to what we saw yesterday so no surprises there....

That MCS sure has been putting a lot of water down, wouldn't be all that surprised to see alot of water still on the roads once the teams get further east so thats something else to just keep in mind perhaps.

As I said the biggest activity may not really kick in till dusk, though there will be plenty og fun before that as well from the looks of things, with many cells already developing (I'd imagine they arte going to merge by the afternoon hours) but the models are real agressive for the eveing hours from what I've seen.

[Gorky]

I think activity will kick of early myself. The warm sector isn't going to be very capped and I can see a good chance of decent storms during mid afternoon. I'm a little concerned that the team may end up having to dodge them as they push east if things do get going early. Not sure it's worth chasing anything they stumble across till they get to the east Arkansas Plains though...

It is of course, possible that weak capping in the warm sector may lead to a bit of a grungefest which could leave the bigger show till late on, but I'd want to be east in case things to stay discrete ahead of the front...

[Paul Sherman]

Yep

This is going to be dangerous today, plan will be to pick some Storms in the Flat parts of Arkansas and not get suckered into following them North, before the corridoors of Strong Tornadoes start to happen across Cenral Arkansas this evening, lets hope this occurs in the 7-9pm timeframe and not at Night.

No core punching today for obvious reasons

Heading out in 15 Mins

Paul S

[kold weather]

Going to be tight Paul, I was really impressed by the WRF forecast of yesterday so I'm keeping it in mind and it really doesn't kick things off till 02-03z, so it'd be late eveing time for you guys.

That being said as Gorky said, I'd be confident of some decent activity before then as well I'd have thought.

[Paul]

Team are now on the road and streaming live:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

[Tom Lynch]

Ok we are heading east on 60 and also watching live scores for Mike (Barnet) . I am having to multi task and I do miss Ian, GPS, SPC, Netweather, Football scores, GRlevel and Stormtrack er . Nice to see you, nice.

Bruce

[pottyprof]

Nice move with the live sound... Great to hear the planing and discussion... And the music.. Fantastic tunes!!

[nsrobins]

'Multiple corridors' suggest to me it's a cluttered day which will depend largely on picking the right boundaries, with outflow from the ongoing MCS possibly pointing to the Jonesboro area for a good starting point. The parameters look like setting-up a dangerous AR/TN late evening tornado risk so a good twilight vantage point with fast escape routes is essential.

[Simon Roy]

Nice move with the live sound... Great to hear the planing and discussion... And the music.. Fantastic tunes!!

Good call on the sound. Found this site and started watching the chasing last evening. Nice to have some sound. Sure I just heard someone mention they will accept requests. I think I better have a few more posts before I start requesting tunes.

I must confess my knowledge is very limited, I'm here to learn and I hope the guys are having a good time.

[Tom Lynch]

Nice move with the live sound... Great to hear the planing and discussion... And the music.. Fantastic tunes!!

Thanks for that. We are just in an poor reception area. Covering permitted we will stream again as soon as possible.

Tom

[UkStormChaser]

Hey mate. Im SERIOUSLY debating on hauling ass east. Looks like its going to be a crazy day. Plus be careful guys as the visibility can be bad in Arkansas. I will call you if i decide to head out.

James