Chase 2010 - Day 5 Discussion

[Tom Lynch]

Hey mate. Im SERIOUSLY debating on hauling ass east. Looks like its going to be a crazy day. Plus be careful guys as the visibility can be bad in Arkansas. I will call you if i decide to head out.

James

OK James

I have passed that onto Paul. He has the batphone atm.

Tom

[Gorky]

You guys probably want to keep clear of the other side of the Mississippi River. I40 is blocked in areas Memphis side.. Even the Rescuers are getting in trouble over there...

[kold weather]

Yeah Gorky, the MCS has dumped an awful lot of rain with multiple flash flood warnins out, some areas got 8-11 inches of rain in a 7-9hr period and its had a toll obviously, esp on the rivers.

Just a shame I'm on a dongle and thus have limited data to play with, so I've gotta pick and choose with how long I can watch the live stream, ah well!

[Gorky]

I'm glad it's May 1st. Monthly bandwidth reset... I'm only here 7 days in May so I have pretty much every stream up right now... hehe

How's the team feel like a Tennessee Chase tomorrow? Looks like this should continue with a moderate upgrade likely according to the SPC. Should be interesting travelling that way with all these flood troubles...

Edited May 1, 2010 by Gorky

[user700]

You guys probably want to keep clear of the other side of the Mississippi River. I40 is blocked in areas Memphis side.. Even the Rescuers are getting in trouble over there...

Yep this system is causing a lot of flooding problems as well as tornados.

[Gorky]

Looks like a nice outflow boundary WSW to ENE paralleling I40 between Little Rock and Memphis could be a focus point for these storms currently firing. If one can latch on to it, and traverse it up I40, it could be the first contender of the day... Would definately be a deviant mover and the orientation of the boundary means this may be possible.

This is the storm which has just crossed over that boundary. Quickly gone severe. Looks like it's getting 'the look', but not sure if this will last as it passes that outflow boundary. It's heading in the team's direction though so if it does do something, they are perfectly placed...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL PRAIRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS

NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS

SOUTHEASTERN WOODRUFF COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLARENDON...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

BRINKLEY... (I don't have a weather control machine.. honest)

COTTON PLANT...

HUNTER...

[user700]

Ok we are heading east on 60 and also watching live scores for Mike (Barnet) . I am having to multi task and I do miss Ian, GPS, SPC, Netweather, Football scores, GRlevel and Stormtrack er . Nice to see you, nice.

Bruce

Good work Tom streaming and GPS are working brilliant!

Nearly as good as being there!

Edited May 1, 2010 by Danny Watson

[kold weather]

Yep will be interesting to watch that cell , doesn't look bad on radar still either!

Think we are going to see an increasing number of cells develop and rapidly go severe over C.AR where clearing skies and dew into the mid 70s are going to set things off, that will obviously move towards the teams location and so they are going to have a lot of time with these systems.

Just taking a look at the 12/15z models right now and the team looks very well placed for a good 12-18hr period of possibly severe weather, with severe weather still very widespread through AR/MO/KY right through to 06z on Sunday morning, eventually becoming a linear system much like last nights system became, probably midnight time in the states.

[nsrobins]

Get ready to ditch the popcorn and fillet burgers chaps - second of the two cells to your SSW looks very tasty on KLZK radar. TNVids Denmark team on it and it's looking ugly.

[Paul]

Team are back on the road again:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

[nsrobins]

Surface obs indicate 72-74F dps advecting into S AR now in clear slot just ahead of quasi-stationary front aligned Pine Bluff to Jonesboro.

I expect developments to continue down this line and the team look in great shape to intercept a succession of cells as the afternoon progresses.

[Roger J Smith]

Expect the front to back-build through s/c AR and would target Stuttgart to Pine Bluff for major development around 23z to 01z (6-8 pm CDT). Heading out for the day, good luck and stay south of the front boys, with those dew points rainfalls of 4-7 inches quite possible in the frontal zone. Energy peak is at 02z which means probably what forms in daylight will turn to a mega-heavy-rain situation after sunset.

[kold weather]

Nice clear slot has developed in AR, looks like things should be becoming increasingly more unstable there in the next few hours, conditions in the clear slot look very good for explosive storms to develop, I'm fully expecting a few big tornadoes today...just hope they stay away from urban areas!

[Gorky]

Unstable is an understatement. The clearing in SC AR has resulted in cape values pushing 3500 according to the SPC Mesoanalysis page and that is with Dews being under what is actually been reported by local stations right now so it is likely quite higher. Quite the chaser convergence forming around I40 east of Little Rock also

[user700]

Unstable is an understatement. The clearing in SC AR has resulted in cape values pushing 3500 according to the SPC Mesoanalysis page and that is with Dews being under what is actually been reported by local stations right now so it is likely quite higher. Quite the chaser convergence forming around I40 east of Little Rock also

I agree with that Gorky there is a lot of instability now, there should be some big storms to watch today!

[kold weather]

Unstable is an understatement. The clearing in SC AR has resulted in cape values pushing 3500 according to the SPC Mesoanalysis page and that is with Dews being under what is actually been reported by local stations right now so it is likely quite higher. Quite the chaser convergence forming around I40 east of Little Rock also

Without a doubt unstable is an understatement, infact the soundings are jsut downright explosive. The latest Meso discussion suggests a tornado outbreak is expected starting from AR. Not all that surprising so many chasers have pinpointed that area, the 0z WRF once again seems to have done a very good job thus far on the evolution of the pattern, been fairly impressed with the high resolution version of it.

Shouldn't be long before things get going guys, probably in the next 30-60 mins IMO.

[Gorky]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

320 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS

NORTHWEST LOUISIANA

NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE

POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF

BATESVILLE ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT

LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 124...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO

CENTRAL AR. RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...COUPLED

WITH A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE A

RISK OF STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.

That watch has >95% probability of 2 or more tornadoes, and 80% chance for Strong to violent tornadoes. It's rare you see such high probabilities without a large tornado already ongoing...

[nsrobins]

Heading into Stuggart I see? Well, at least this time you can see what's going on

The area just ahead of the boundary is primed now - it won't be long I'm sure.

[Gorky]

This is what the model shows for 0300. I don't think I've seen a forecast radar look so convincing as this. You can almost make out supercelluar features such as hook echoes!

[kold weather]

Yeah, I was looking at the WRF earlier and it was really impressive back then, but that image there is quite unreal, your right, you can see the hook echo on the supercells on some of those cells the model breaks out...unreal!

EDIT- Cell going up now near Malvern, upto 36k....cap broken probably!

Edited May 1, 2010 by kold weather

[nsrobins]

The I30 could be the rough line of initiation in the next 20mins - which of course is a problem with respect the river. There are three main crossings - Little Rock, Pine Bluff and Dumas further south - so those to the SW of the river may need to jiggle a bit if they want to follow any cell.

The issue of a PDS reflects the potenial severity of the next five hours. Say safe chaps.

[CardiffStorm]

So are they just watching and waiting for cells to develop now?

I notice that the TIV, Reed Timmer, Brandon Ivey etc all seem to waiting just to the South West of the Netweather team in Pine Bluff.

[Paul Sherman]

Sitting in Stuttgart atm. Outflow Boundary evident on Radar SE Of Little Rock, surrounded by chasers, it's a waiting game for the first of these babies to go mental and then the Chase is On. Everyone is just a little bit excited at present. Have road options NE/SW/N/W So am sitting tight for the minute, expecting initiation in the next 1-2 hours.

Paul S & Team

[dallas]

Sitting in Stuttgart atm. Outflow Boundary evident on Radar SE Of Little Rock, surrounded by chasers, it's a waiting game for the first of these babies to go mental and then the Chase is On. Everyone is just a little bit excited at present. Have road options NE/SW/N/W So am sitting tight for the minute, expecting initiation in the next 1-2 hours.

Paul S & Team

Feeling the anticipation just sitting in my front room!

[Gorky]

Cells are going up at the AR/LA border right now. I imagine these will strengthen as they move NE and be the storms you'll be chasing in an hour or two! Are you going to try and intercept if they do form to the south, or play the waiting game in decent terrain?