Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull Volcano - Discussion Thread

[karyo]

The satellite images http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_IR.html

show the cloud associated with a weather system moving out of Iceland and towards the UK. It should become clearer ther this afternoon as pressure rises. We just need to get rid all that low cloud and hopefully we'll have a nice view of the volcano soon!

Karyo

Edited May 5, 2010 by karyo

[picog]

Possibly something building up on the "THEY" GPS station with inflation of a few mm over last day. East - West Movement.

Something building up underground?

Is that Lee Cloud coming from Katla or Steam? Looks more like cloud checking 5 mins later.

Is the THEY data suggesting or indicating a bulge in the ground or shift in the shape of the ground in some way?

[pyrotech]

Is the THEY data suggesting or indicating a bulge in the ground or shift in the shape of the ground in some way?

Not 100% sure but think its a shift rather than bulge, movement of continental plates perhaps?

[Coast]

Latest statements on the volcanic ash situation:

Last updated: 1436 BST on Wednesday, 5 May 2010

Latest information received from the Icelandic Meteorological Office has confirmed that activity from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano has increased. This has resulted in an increase in ash over UK airspace.

Current advisories bring the ash cloud across northern and western parts of the British Isles, including Scotland and Northern Ireland through tomorrow morning. Forecasts indicate that the ash cloud will continue to move further south, possibly affecting other western parts of the UK through tomorrow.

Any decisions on airspace closures are the decision of CAA and NATS and further information on the impacts of this increased activity should be sought from them.

The situation remains very dynamic. As the volcanic activity changes, the Met Office will continue to provide timely information to NATS and CAA about the dispersion of the volcanic ash, in line with the new engine criteria set by the CAA and the aviation industry.

www.metoffice.gov.uk

Update on Wednesday 5 May, 1200

The no-fly zone imposed by the Civil Aviation Authority will extend from 1300 (local) today to include Belfast City, Belfast International, Ronaldsway (Isle of Man) and Edinburgh Airports. All other airfields currently within the no-fly zone remain within it.

Latest information from the Met Office shows that the ash cloud continues to move south and change shape. We continue to maintain close dialogue with the Met Office and with the CAA, which is responsible for imposing no-fly zones.

These latest restrictions will be re-assessed by the CAA at 1900. We will issue a further update following that.

www.nats.co.uk

Following the latest updated forecast from the UK Met Office, the CAA can confirm that some airspace over Scotland and Northern Ireland and North West England will be closed from 13:00 local time today.

The no-fly zone imposed by the Civil Aviation Authority will extend from 13:00 (local) today to include Belfast City, Belfast International, Ronaldsway (Isle of Man) and Edinburgh Airports. Inverness airport, as was stated in our 02:00 update, is now open. All other airfields currently within the no-fly zone remain within it for the period.

Latest information from the Met Office shows that the ash cloud continues to move south and change shape. We continue to maintain close dialogue with the Met Office and will provide an update to the situation after 18:00 when further Met Office forecasts are available.

The situation remains changeable, so passengers expecting to travel today and tomorrow from airports in Scotland, Northern Ireland, the North West of England, Wales and the West Country should contact their airlines to check whether their flight is operating.

Based on current forecasts, the CAA does not expect airports in the South East of England to be affected.

www.caa.co.uk

[LadyPakal]

New post on the Eruptions blog:

'The latest news from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption has the volcano erupting more explosively again (see above), possibly due to an increased influx of water into the vent area - in any case, the ash has become denser (by volume in the air) and the plume is higher (see below) than in the last couple of weeks. '

[The PIT]

Sadly it looks like no views today which is a pity. Lava's problem made it out of the Glacier by now. There suggestions that the earthquakes may a new injection of magma at depths.

For those panicking over Katla it's sleeping like a babe at the moment.

latest update

Magma intrusion - 05 May 2010 13:40

Since Monday 3 May, increased earthquake activity beneath Eyjafjallajökull has been recorded. Precise locations of the earthquakes show that their source is at first very deep, at about 23 km depth, but then migrates upwards. This strongly indicates that “new” magma is intruding into the magma conduit and pushing on the over-lying magma, causing a difference in pressure at the surface. It is therefore anticipated that the eruption will continue at full force in the next days.

Significant changes in horizontal movement at GPS stations around Eyjafjallajökull have been observed in the last 48 hours. Renewed northward displacement is seen at stations BAS2 and STE2, located just north of the ice cap. To the south, westward movement is apparent at THEY (see figure below), while station FIM2 - located further east - shows eastward movement.

The distribution of earthquake activity in the magma conduit could also indicate the location of the magma chamber that has fuelled the eruption since 14 April. It is considered to be at a depth of approx. 3-5 kilometres, in an area where no earthquakes are detected.

link to article and graphs

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/1884

Looking at the graphs to me does indicate new magma moving towards the surface.

Edited May 5, 2010 by The PIT

[LadyPakal]

MIght be of interest:

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/1884

'Eruption in Iceland - frequently asked questions

Update on activity

Eruption in Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland

Current events

Magma intrusion - 05 May 2010 13:40'

Discusses the recent seismic activity.

Also -

IR image: http://www.earthice.hi.is/Apps/WebObjects/HI.woa/wa/dp?pictureID=1016388&id=1027696

Radar image: http://www.earthice.hi.is/Apps/WebObjects/HI.woa/wa/dp?pictureID=1016389&id=1027696

Edited May 5, 2010 by LadyPakal

[The PIT]

This is interesting http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/volcano/observations.html

Yesterdays report 1620 - BAe146 reports ash layer 10000 to 12000 ft.

Interestingly reporting concentrations increasing as aircraft

heads back east en route to land at Cranfield.

Another amusing one was a report of solid ash. Now if it was solid it wouldn't be up in the air. I think they meant dense.

Interesting to see a KLM flight to a closed Glasgow airport taking place. http://www.flightradar24.com/

Edited May 5, 2010 by The PIT

[lfcdude]

ash depostied on surface at lynem? thats only a few miles away why is bristol airport and that still open wen there is lots of reports comin in of ash in the area

[The PIT]

ash depostied on surface at lynem? thats only a few miles away why is bristol airport and that still open wen there is lots of reports comin in of ash in the area

Interesting question I'm watching that KLM flight. Either the KLM flight is going into a holding pattern or diverting.

Edited May 5, 2010 by The PIT

[coldfingers]

Interesting question I'm watching that KLM flight. Either the KLM flight is going into a holding pattern or diverting.

Is that the one that now appears to be heading towards Aberdeen?

[The PIT]

Is that the one that now appears to be heading towards Aberdeen?

Yup interesting the BA/Thomas Cook air buses seems to going directly to Aberdeen. I wonder if it was another try on by KLM. Anyway landing now and if there is ash up there it's probably sucked a bit in. I wonder if the engines will get inspected??

Edited May 5, 2010 by The PIT

[coldfingers]

Two more earthquakes, just now. One under Eyjafjalljokul and one that appears to be under Katla.

Please correct me if I am wrong on the second location.

Sorry should be three new quakes, two under Eyjafjallajokul just one minute apart, and one under katla.

Eyjafjalljokul now has more spots than a dalmation!

18:54pm

And now two more quakes one hour later. Both under Eyjafjallayokul.

A total of 8 today and 29 in the last 48 hours.

Something must happen soon surely. I wonder if she erupted violently again if it would clear these miserable clouds away!

Edited May 5, 2010 by coldfingers

[karyo]

A total of 8 today and 29 in the last 48 hours.

Something must happen soon surely. I wonder if she erupted violently again if it would clear these miserable clouds away!

It is starting to brighten up now! Hopefully, it won't be long till we have a view of the plume!

http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli/

Karyo

Edit: Oh no! The camera is now not working! :-(

Edited May 5, 2010 by karyo

[The PIT]

Sadly the fog and low cloud is staying put. Guess we'll have to wait until tomorrow.

[Mondy]

Interesting question I'm watching that KLM flight. Either the KLM flight is going into a holding pattern or diverting.

Talking of KLM, how did they do this?

[coldfingers]

Talking of KLM, how did they do this?

Is that why they aren't worried about ash? They have ways of making you levitate.

[LadyPakal]

Talking of KLM, how did they do this?

A specially moulded frame running from the ground, up his trouser leg, around his bum & up his back.

[The PIT]

Talking of KLM, how did they do this?

Very clever. I know what did he do when he wanted to go to the loo

[LadyPakal]

Maybe he had a catheter in his doodad...

[The PIT]

Maybe he had a catheter in his doodad...

Wot about the other end ????

[LadyPakal]

Pipe built into the frame... or maybe he had a colostomey.

Or else they had starved him for a few days....

Edited May 5, 2010 by LadyPakal

[coldfingers]

Maybe he had a catheter in his doodad...

Pipe built into the frame... or maybe he had a colostomey.

Or else they had starved him for a few days....

Thanks for the giggle.

And back to a more serious note, they have removed the Katla quake from the charts so must be a false one. Good news perhaps.

Edited May 5, 2010 by coldfingers

[pyrotech]

Now the CAA statement to my untrained eye seems to say they compromised safety for economic reasons. To me it says previous guidelines said avoid and so when they could not avoid they have moved the goal posts. Yes they must of done some kind of risk assessment but years of study were changed in a few days. Its saying to me that if this was in mid atlantic they would fly around it because its dangerous, as its effecting an unavoidable area then they say its safe.

Is this economic pressure or just good sense using dynamic risk assessment and latest technollogy?

Commenting on the situation, Andrew Haines, CAA Chief Executive said:

“The situation for UK airspace, particularly over the North and Scotland, remains unprecedented. Volcanic ash is a known hazard to aircraft and the previously accepted procedure adopted all over the world was to avoid ash completely. For the first time an ash cloud is affecting airspace where there is not the room to do this. So the CAA had to develop new safety procedures enabling flights to continue whilst flying close to or through the ash cloud. We were able to reopen the skies last month having secured agreement from manufacturers on safe levels of ash tolerance.

[LadyPakal]

Spot the plume... http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli/

Gone again now but the clouds parted long enough to see that the ash plume had gone off the top of the Hvol cam field of view.

Now the CAA statement to my untrained eye seems to say they compromised safety for economic reasons. To me it says previous guidelines said avoid and so when they could not avoid they have moved the goal posts. Yes they must of done some kind of risk assessment but years of study were changed in a few days. Its saying to me that if this was in mid atlantic they would fly around it because its dangerous, as its effecting an unavoidable area then they say its safe.

Is this economic pressure or just good sense using dynamic risk assessment and latest technollogy?

Commenting on the situation, Andrew Haines, CAA Chief Executive said:

“The situation for UK airspace, particularly over the North and Scotland, remains unprecedented. Volcanic ash is a known hazard to aircraft and the previously accepted procedure adopted all over the world was to avoid ash completely. For the first time an ash cloud is affecting airspace where there is not the room to do this. So the CAA had to develop new safety procedures enabling flights to continue whilst flying close to or through the ash cloud. We were able to reopen the skies last month having secured agreement from manufacturers on safe levels of ash tolerance.

Yup - and note they have shifted the blame onto the manufacturers should the worst happen.

Cool aerial pics of the ash cloud on the meto site: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/volcano/plane.html

Edited May 5, 2010 by LadyPakal