Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull Volcano - Discussion Thread

[karyo]

Spot the plume... http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli/

Gone again now but the clouds parted long enough to see that the ash plume had gone off the top of the Hvol cam field of view.

Yes, it looked impressive for a time! Much better/higher than yesterday!

Karyo

[Mondy]

Since Monday 3 May, increased earthquake activity beneath Eyjafjallajökull has been recorded. Precise locations of the earthquakes show that their source is at first very deep, at about 23 km depth, but then migrates upwards. This strongly indicates that “new” magma is intruding into the magma conduit and pushing on the over-lying magma, causing a difference in pressure at the surface. It is therefore anticipated that the eruption will continue at full force in the next days.

Significant changes in horizontal movement at GPS stations around Eyjafjallajökull have been observed in the last 48 hours. Renewed northward displacement is seen at stations BAS2 and STE2, located just north of the ice cap. To the south, westward movement is apparent at THEY (see figure below), while station FIM2 - located further east - shows eastward movement.

The distribution of earthquake activity in the magma conduit could also indicate the location of the magma chamber that has fuelled the eruption since 14 April. It is considered to be at a depth of approx. 3-5 kilometers, in an area where no earthquakes are detected.

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/1884

[dogs32]

I did spot the plume on cam earlier and was very surprised how large it was.

Only a glimpse of it but very impressive.

[LadyPakal]

This thread http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=35867&start=1126 has a pic of the plume through the clouds, taken earlier. It's towards the bottom of the thread.

Edited May 5, 2010 by LadyPakal

[Mondy]

This thread http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=35867&start=1126 has a pic of the plume through the clouds, taken earlier. It's towards the bottom of the thread.

Bloody hell - that's huge!!

[pyrotech]

This one

[coldfingers]

And yet two more quakes at 8:32pm and 8:40pm local time GMT

Any chance one of them coincided with the plume i wonder?

This one

WOW!!!! No wonder they were giving a warning for possible pyroclastic flows.

[LadyPakal]

Most recent IMO update - http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/1884:

Assessment - 05 May 2010 20:50

Increased seismicity suggests that new material is intruding from deep below Eyjafjallajökull and latest GPS-observations suggest inflation. So far, GPS-signals are not large.

Plume at 5.5-6.5 km height (a.s.l.) according to IMO's weather radar.

Due to mild weather and snowmelt, increase in discharge was noticed in Markarfljót peaking at midnight. Discharge from Gígjökull seems to be decreasing and oscillations in water temperature at the old Markarfljóts bridge relate to air temperature. Pulses of meltwater from Gígjökull are unnoticeable.

Lava flows to the north and spreads at 500 m a.s.l. The lava tongue is about 200 m wide and lava channels that join at the tongue are about 30-60 m wide. The lava channels gets wider every day.

There are no signs that the eruption is about to end.

See more in Status Report issued by Icelandic Meteorological Office and Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, at 18:00.

[coldfingers]

The tremor on the charts is tiny though. Perhaps that is because the lava flow has slowed.

[LadyPakal]

Lots of earthquakes tho'.

[coldfingers]

Lots of earthquakes tho'.

Yes! 30 in last 48 hours!!!!

• Magnitude 1 to 2: 21
• Magnitude 2 to 3: 9

And yet another! A 1.7 at only 0.2 km depth, that could be another explosive eruption couldn't it?

Curse that cloud!!!!!

Edited May 5, 2010 by coldfingers

[karyo]

Curse that cloud!!!!!

I know, it's so frustrating! The high and mid level cloud has moved away but the low cloud is just so stubborn!

Karyo

[LadyPakal]

This is interesting - the SO2 cloud http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/OMI/OMISO2/iceland.html

[rc28]

Ash plume has reached 31,000 feet tonight!

http://mbl.is/mm/frettir/innlent/2010/05/05/gosmokkur_i_31_thusund_feta_haed/

Is that as high as it got in April?

Edited May 5, 2010 by rc28

[coldfingers]

That looks like ash blowing across on the Katla cam. It looks too dark and too fast to be cloud but I havve been known to be wrong before. Could the ash cloud from Eyja reach that far?

http://www.123-cam.c...ww.ruv.is/katla

Something is certainly falling really heavily now!!

Edited May 5, 2010 by coldfingers

[coldfingers]

Is the glow on this Katla cam from Eyjafjallajokul? Because that is the direction from which I saw the roiling 'cloud' I mentioned in the previous post.

http://www.123-cam.com/live-webcam.php?var=http://www.ruv.is/katla

[milkmaid]

does anyone know where the ash cloud is ,i have a visit this morning from some people from the mainland and being selfish i could do with a few more hours to prepare so is it waywhere over the western isles ,as i've heard on the news we are flying from 7 am this morning ,

she doesn't seem to be settling down at all

[coldfingers]

Sorry Milkmaid but I have no idea either, I am sure Pit or someone else will know when they get up.

This is on the BBC news website http://news.bbc.co.u.../uk/8663994.stm

I was astonished this morning to see the view from Thorolfsfelli shows the lava flow doesn't appear to have progressed at all! Ah! Looking more closely there is a very small amount of steam coming from a vent on the ice area above the exit hole. So it has move down but slowly and almost no meltwater at all. (well compared to other day the water is much less, I am now are that run-off is far bigger than it seems.) Wonder if that means it is damming up somewhere.

Edited May 6, 2010 by coldfingers

[Coast]

Latest statements on the volcanic ash situation:

Update on Thursday 6 May, 0415

The no-fly zone imposed by the Civil Aviation Authority tracking the high density area of the volcanic ash cloud, has moved west overnight and has now cleared UK airspace.

According to latest information from the Met Office, from 0700 (local) today (Thursday) all UK airfields will be available.

We continue to maintain close dialogue with the Met Office and with the CAA, which is responsible for imposing no-fly zones. We will issue any further notice as necessary.

www.nats.co.uk

Latest information received from the Icelandic Meteorological Office shows that ash is still being emitted from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano. There has been an increase in ash over parts of the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Forecasts indicate that this new ash cloud will gradually move away westwards from the UK during Wednesday night. This means that on Thursday ash concentrations over the whole of the UK should be below the new engine tolerance levels set by the aviation industry. Any decisions on airspace closures are the decision of CAA and NATS and further information on the impacts of this increased activity should be sought from them

www.metoffice.gov.uk

Following the latest updated forecast from the Met Office later this evening the CAA will issue further guidance to industry and NATS will update the situation for the media and public with a statement that will be available from www.nats.co.uk

Commenting on the situation, Andrew Haines, CAA Chief Executive said:

“The situation for UK airspace, particularly over the North and Scotland, remains unprecedented. Volcanic ash is a known hazard to aircraft and the previously accepted procedure adopted all over the world was to avoid ash completely. For the first time an ash cloud is affecting airspace where there is not the room to do this. So the CAA had to develop new safety procedures enabling flights to continue whilst flying close to or through the ash cloud. We were able to reopen the skies last month having secured agreement from manufacturers on safe levels of ash tolerance.

“Scientists are tracking the cloud's movements constantly but its location changes frequently, depending on the strength of eruptions and prevailing winds. When the ash level exceeds that agreed as safe by the industry we have to restrict flights accordingly. This decision is not taken lightly and we appreciate the huge inconvenience and disruption this causes to the many people and businesses affected.

“Ash is likely to continue to disrupt UK air travel for the foreseeable future and our advice to passengers is to listen to updates and contact their airline before leaving home if they are concerned their travel plans may be affected. The CAA is continuing to lead international efforts to develop more detailed scientific understanding of the situation to minimise disruption without compromising passenger safety.”

www.caa.co.uk

[The PIT]

Well the change in wind direction has moved the cloud west. More eagled eye observers will also note that parts of the ash are higher than before which shows the eruption certainly has been stronger. More interestingly the air ports in Ireland have opened despite being under the ash cloud. Either the concentrations are low or they're just plain risking it.

So far the new guidelines have to be regarded as successful as no planes have crashed. However one has to wonder about shortened engine life and future failures.

Tremor has continued to fall which probably means magma now has freer access to the surface.

Very hard too see anything once again but hopefully today the cloud will lift. As far as I can see the Lava hasn't made it down the Glacier as yet. As already stated the flood water has really dropped.

Sorry if already posted the latest update http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/Eyjafjallajokull_status_2010-05-05_IES_IMO.pdf

[LadyPakal]

So far the new guidelines have to be regarded as successful as no planes have crashed. However one has to wonder about shortened engine life and future failures.

In my eyes it has never been about immediate plane crashes (you need to fly directly through the plume for that sort of thing) but the long term effect on the engines - once the threat of ash has passed people relax. Then, 100 flying hours or so down the line, engines start failing for no obvious reason.

'Live today, pay tomorrow' - that seems to be the motto these days.

Edited May 6, 2010 by LadyPakal

[The PIT]

In my eyes it has never been about immediate plane crashes (you need to fly directly through the plume for that sort of thing) but the long term effect on the engines - once the threat of ash has passed people relax. Then, 100 flying hours or so down the line, engines start failing for no obvious reason.

'Live today, pay tomorrow' - that seems to be the motto these days.

I'd still be interested in how many engine checks they're actually doing. Anyway the steam plume is just now visable on the lower Vodafone webcam which it wasn't a few days ago.

[LadyPakal]

Yes, and loook at the (lack of) runoff now. Most of the water is now coming from the glacier side (see the white streaky area on the left side of the runoff fan). Very little left coming down through the split rock.

I'd still be interested in how many engine checks they're actually doing.

How can they do detailed checks when they are back using their original flight timetables? They barely have time to clean the seating areas before loading the next lot of passengers - never mind a thorough engine check between each flight.

Edited May 6, 2010 by LadyPakal

[The PIT]

How can they do detailed checks when they are back using their original flight timetables? They barely have time to clean the seating areas before loading the next lot of passengers - never mind a thorough engine check between each flight.

I suspect they're not which is what I originally posted under would you fly thread.

[LadyPakal]

Bit of a view of the plume through the clouds: http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli/

Also the tremors seems to be on an uptick again: http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla2009/stodvaplott.html

Edited May 6, 2010 by LadyPakal