Chase 2010 - Day 10 Discussion

[Tornado Researcher]

lol, it's annoying when going to a supermarket and not being able to get what you're looking for

Edit - I'm guessing that you guys are looking to reposition in Lyons and wait to see if anything further develops?

Edited May 6, 2010 by Tornado Researcher

[John Hanrahan]

Edit - I'm guessing that you guys are looking to reposition in Lyons and wait to see if anything further develops?

We are going to sit on this county road a while and see if anything kicks off

[nsrobins]

We are going to sit on this county road a while and see if anything kicks off

I assume that's the view east, John. The skyline to the south should be looking a bit milky as WV imagery shows some sort of boundary along the WF. Latest RUC throws 60dps into your area by 00Z with a pool of cap erosion pretty much over your heads by then.

Something should quickly initiate in the next 30 mins and I still think it will be just to the west or SW of your current position. By 01Z a more general complex may start developing to the NE of Wichita.

[Tornado Researcher]

Cool, I'm watching the live stream anyway and checking out the radar and satelite imagery to get an idea of what the chances are

[John Hanrahan]

I assume that's the view east, John. The skyline to the south should be looking a bit milky as WV imagery shows some sort of boundary along the WF. Latest RUC throws 60dps into your area by 00Z with a pool of cap erosion pretty much over your heads by then.

Something should quickly initiate in the next 30 mins and I still think it will be just to the west or SW of your current position. By 01Z a more general complex may start developing to the NE of Wichita.

Sorry was Driving. Camera was pointing West ish. Have a much better view to our west now. If i see any towers I'll point in that direction

[NL]

Latest visible satellite images.

[NL]

SPC have issued an updated MD for Northern Kansas.

678

ACUS11 KWNS 062317

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 062316

MOZ000-KSZ000-070015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0616 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 062316Z - 070015Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW KS EARLY THIS

EVENING AND MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN KS. AS STORMS INTENSIFY...WW

ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY. INITIALLY...THE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL. AS

THE STORMS ORGANIZE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD

ALSO DEVELOP.

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW IN FAR SE CO WITH A WARM

FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO NCNTRL KS. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED IN WRN

NEB AND ERN CO. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS NW KS THIS

EVENING WITH STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN

ADDITION...STORMS SHOULD ALSO INITIATE FURTHER EAST ALONG THE WARM

FRONT AROUND RUSSELL OR HAYS KS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD

SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT. AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO ECNTRL KS

LATER THIS EVENING AND GAIN ACCESS TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AN

ISOLATED SUPERCELL MAY DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE

AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE THIS EVENING

AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS ERN KS.

[nsrobins]

Something should quickly initiate in the next 30 mins and I still think it will be just to the west or SW of your current position. By 01Z a more general complex may start developing to the NE of Wichita.

No real excuse but I keep forgetting to add an hour for BST - that and the fact that I've had one too many pints of Doombar watching various cars leave various party leaders houses in the last hour.

RUC still keen on cap erosion shortly so keep your hopes up. I see Sean Casey and the TIV is parked-up just south of Ellis.

I'm off back to the party.

[Nick F]

Worth the team holding tight, maybe a dash north or NE towards the I-70 if storms develop here, certainly looking like an agitated cumulus field towards Salina and Herrington on the latest vis. satellite imagery.

[Tornado Researcher]

Agreed

[NL]

Severe Td's warning for the far NW Kansas SW Nebraska. Over 170 mile away from the team, but at least theres potential for storms to develop further south just hope they initiate before the light starts fading.

891

WUUS53 KGLD 062338

SVRGLD

KSC023-153-NEC057-087-070015-

/O.NEW.KGLD.SV.W.0028.100506T2338Z-100507T0015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS

638 PM CDT THU MAY 6 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

NORTHWESTERN RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

SOUTHEASTERN DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT/615 PM MDT/

* AT 628 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES

NORTHWEST OF MCDONALD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

STRATTON NE AND TRENTON.

Severe Td,s watch.

171

WWUS20 KWNS 062341

SEL1

SPC WW 062341

KSZ000-NEZ000-070700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 141

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

645 PM CDT THU MAY 6 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF NORTHERN KANSAS

PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 645 PM

UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CONCORDIA

KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND

INTENSITY ALONG AND N OF E/W WARM FRONT VICINITY I-70 IN KS. SHEAR

PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ALONG WITH VERY STEEP

LAPSE RATES SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY AS STORMS DEVELOP

UPSCALE IN LINE SEGMENTS/ SHORT BOWS...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE AN

INCREASING THREAT DURING THE EVENING.

Edited May 6, 2010 by NL

[John Hanrahan]

Camera now facing East. Some nice towers starting to build

[MAF]

trouble is, is will you be running out of daylight? hope not

[Tornado Researcher]

Latest GOES image

[Paul]

Team on the move...

[NL]

Worth the team holding tight, maybe a dash north or NE towards the I-70 if storms develop here, certainly looking like an agitated cumulus field towards Salina and Herrington on the latest vis. satellite imagery.

Initiation NE along the I- 70 just as you thought Nick has just kicked in..

[Tornado Researcher]

Image Update

[MAF]

lovely sunset there

[NL]

Thats a beautiful sunset chaps....!! Shame they aint a 'tube' passing in front...money shot for sure...

[Tornado Researcher]

It's hard to beat a good sunset, especially if there's a beastly supercell that's spitting out sparks left and right :o

[NL]

The cell that the team are on is severe warned (Td's)

979

WUUS53 KICT 070147

SVRICT

KSC169-070215-

/O.NEW.KICT.SV.W.0050.100507T0147Z-100507T0215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

847 PM CDT THU MAY 6 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 846 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE

HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS

LOCATED NEAR ASSARIA...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA...AND MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

GYPSUM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER

HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR

YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR

HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE

INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

Well done to Paul and Co for getting on an isolated cell..!!

Edited May 7, 2010 by NL

[Tornado Researcher]

The cell that the team are on is severe warned (Td's)

Well done to Paul and Co for getting on an isolated cell..!!

I second that totally :o

There's only 1 thing I hate about night time chasing and that is having to switch to infrared satelite imagery to see what's cookin in the couldron

[MAF]

wooohooo some massive lightning there :o

[NL]

The cell now has evolved into a mesocyclone and topping at 43,000ft so possible night-time Tornado, in the flashes of the lightning i could definately see lowering... Possible hook-echo forming???

The team should be equipped with a set of these each...!!

Edited May 7, 2010 by NL

[Tornado Researcher]

Damn, I wish I was there, oh well, it'll have to be armchair chasing for now lol