Atlantic Tropical Wave/disturbance Thread 2010

[Cookie]

Use this thread to discuss all tropical waves and disturbances in 2010 Atlantic season.

And so it begins first tropical wave of the 2010 season.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

205 PM EDT THU MAY 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL

AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS

OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST

FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED

ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER

OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W FROM 1N-9N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.

UPPER-AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSES INDICATE THE WAVE PASSED DAKAR

SENEGAL AROUND 02/1200 UTC. EXAMINING THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF

METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC

CONFIRMS PROPAGATION OF THE WAVE LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE

ITCZ AXIS THAT HAS REMAINED LOW-LATITUDE SINCE EMERGING OFF OF

WEST AFRICA A FEW DAYS AGO. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND

05/1210 UTC CAPTURED 15-20 KT RETRIEVALS N OF 4N IN THE VICINITY

OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ALSO CONFIRMED THE APPROXIMATE POSITION OF

THE WAVE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR THE WAVE ARE

ELEVATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM W OF

THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-8N

[Gray-Wolf]

So it begins!!! pretty early if anything comes of it but it's nice to see the train start up again.

After the past couple of years it will be great to have a normal season again.

[Katherine]

I bet the first system will happen when I'm on holiday from next Wednesday until the 22nd of the month...

[Cookie]

[Iceberg]

3 Tropical waves, two of them out in the atlantic not bad, but with little to no rotation or organisation, however what they are doing is providing alot of moisture across the atlantic corridor, with the real dry wedge reserved for the GOM and Carbi regions.

All still looking very promising when the ITCZ can get a little more height.

[Cookie]

another tropical wave to keep an eye on.

000

AXNT20 KNHC 151800

TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

205 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL

AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS

OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST

FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED

ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER

OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

1740 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM 3N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.

THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL

PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE

CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.

$$

GARCIA

[summer blizzard]

Any update on the potential?

[Cookie]

not going to do much at the moment, to close to land.

.TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17W TO THE SOUTH OF

10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM

6N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N

MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE

THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W MAY OR

MAY NOT BE RELATED TO JUST THIS TROPICAL WAVE. THE PRECIPITATION

MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W TO THE SOUTH OF

10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE

FROM THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 4N26W TO 1N33W TO

THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. STRONG

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN

44W AND 46W...FROM BRAZIL NEAR 1S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 45W AND

48W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF THE EQUATOR ALONG

50W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED

MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM

THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

[summer blizzard]

I think that the problem at the moment is mainly the lack of lattitude in these systems, i will be watching the Tropical Wave near 30W carefully as this is a little higher and they seem to turn north westward cloer to the Carribean.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed Cookie, everything still a little too far south at the moment. These waves could though, at this stage, head on westwards into the East Pacific to potentially develop, hence one of the reasons the East Pacific season starts a little earlier than the Atlantic.

[summer blizzard]

Possible chance of development from two waves in the next few days IMO..

Firstly, looking at the chart below, theres a decent amount of activity, though the interesting features to me are the wave at 46W, and the wave at 79W..

In regards to wave one, it is moving generally west but showing a lot of good convection and is the best looking wave to date so far..

In regards to wave two, is is currently a mass of thunderstorms near Cuba however forcing in the area is expected to increase over the next few days with a more northerly drift, quite a common place to develop in the early season, so this would be my faviourate for development..

NHC REPORT - A COLD FRONT TO MOVE S INTO

THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 28N50W WITH SHOWERS.

FURTHERMORE EXPECT CREATING AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLANTIC

AND BAHAMAS W OF 68W.

More forcing forecast there..

[Cookie]

Plenty to keep eyes on at the moment.

[Iceberg]

Tentative signs that the ITCZ will move northwards a little over the next few days.

Still a primed Atlantic though, plenty of moisture, good steady stream of activity of Africa, nice SST's and liveable shear.

We just need to a few extra degrees north to allow some rotation, but it's coming.

[summer blizzard]

The wave near 40W looks to have died a death and is far too far south, while the wave over the Carribean looks to have been sucked north eastward rather than north west as i thought.

There is a wave around 60W, 20N which wile weak could benefit from the convection from the Carribean wave and looks to be in good conditions, though little precitpitation at the moment.

[Cookie]

The east coast system has been named Floater "INVEST"

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[Iceberg]

Although the latest Invest looks set to die a death, I am pretty sure that a system will develop hot off it's tails, the models show this is a more favourable environment and GFS, ECM, GFDL and HWRF all make it a tropical storm.

An 80% chance of being our first TD of the season .

60% first TS

30% first hurricane over the next 5 days.

[Katherine]

Ah, no hurricanes during the time I've been on holiday to Pembrokeshire!

[Iceberg]

There has been some forming of the 90L and this bit behind it, they've kept it as 90L though, which simplifies things.

So I'll update in there.

[summer blizzard]

90L now looks as though it won't develop and the wave i was monitering did not gain enougth lattitude and is now over Venuswala, there are two waves in the Atlantic at the moment, though they need to gain height to have a chance..

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W TO THE SOUTH OF

10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS PART OF

THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W TO THE SOUTH OF

10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS PART OF

THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

Doubt anything will come of them, but its something to monitor.

[summer blizzard]

Nothing really to report today, the three Tropical Waves in the Atlantic Ocean are all too far south and moving westward so effectively no-hoppers, however there is quite a bit of precipitation in the Carribean Sea in association with a wave which entered Venuswalia a few days ago, there are two upper level lows imparting shear from the north east and south east, but there is a chance development could occur in three to four days time.

[summer blizzard]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS

SUPPRESSED AND MAINLY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ DUE TO A LARGE AREA

OF SAHARAN AIR THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED

MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN

18W-22W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 6N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS

WAVE IS ALSO SUPPRESSED DUE TO THE AREA OF SAHARAN AIR TO THE

NORTH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS 3N-6N

BETWEEN 28W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 6N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE

LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL

PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS

FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. VISIBLE

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE

AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN

28W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE

COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL

PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG

CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 59W-63W...AND FROM 6N-12N

BETWEEN 57W-62W.

Lots of Tropical Waves in the Atlantic at the moment, though Saharan dust extends outwards to 30W inhibiting development, conversly there is a huge amount of moisture in the Carribean Sea at the moment, so if any waves take a turn northwestward, conditions are near perfect for development, with i quote "abundent moisture".

Waves currently at 60W, 49W and 38W certainly need monitoring.

[summer blizzard]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W FROM 1N TO 7N MOVING WEST NEAR 12 KT.

THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...AND CORRELATES WELL

WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER

IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN

29W AND 34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W FROM 1N TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 16 KT.

THE WAVE ALSO LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER

MOISTURE NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED

MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.

No real change in that we have two waves at 33W and 44W showing the best chance of development but still traveling due west, and a lot of moisture over the Carribean Sea.

[summer blizzard]

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N30W TO 3N33W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE AXIS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE WAVE ALSO

COINCIDES WITH A MOISTURE BULGE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER

IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN

29W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N42W TO 2N41W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE

WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN

TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED

STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N54W TO EQ58W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW

ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE

AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 57W-60W.

ITCZ has angled itself northwestward, so there is a real chance that one of these waves could make it into the Carribean Sea.

[summer blizzard]

Wave at 65W has some degree of low level turning, could be a candidate for development over the next few days.

[summer blizzard]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK MID

LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED N OF THE ITCZ. WAVE IS

EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL

PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

Next candidate for development is the one that recently left Africa as it is north of the ITCZ.