Atlantic Tropical Wave/disturbance Thread 2010

[Paranoid]

Yes, it was a bit of an anticlimax. How strong is the shear over the central and western Atlantic? Shear was probably what finished 92L off before it could develop into anything more significant.

Edited June 23, 2010 by Paranoid

[Cookie]

Its just amazing we're getting these kind of size waves in june!!! up to 2 months before the Cape Verde systems usally come around!

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

System at 50W, 20N looks very well orginised, could see this upgraded to an invest soon.

[Iceberg]

Very small possibility, but GFS and ECM have toyed with developing the deep convection to the north of Alex.

Here's the GFS as it develops it over the GOM/US coastline.

Slim chance and might only be a TD, but worth watching as it moves North over the coming days.

[Iceberg]

I wasn't expecting this but recon who are flying to Alex atm, have also had a little look at this feature.

They have even taken a recon report directly over it.

Their remarks are that Tropical storm winds are evident at the surface and wind estimates over 40kts at the surface are also estimated. I am not sure whether they found any circulation though, but just the fact that this is being investigated at all shows possibility. !

[Paranoid]

NHC have just added a system with a 10% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Worth noting that the CMC and GFS models take this system up to possibly a strong TS over the next several days. It's also in the same place that the model runs Iceberg posted above showed a TD strength system forming.

[summer blizzard]

NHC have just added a system with a 10% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Worth noting that the CMC and GFS models take this system up to possibly a strong TS over the next several days. It's also in the same place that the model runs Iceberg posted above showed a TD strength system forming.

I doubt this will develop, it has dry air to the north and won't stay over water long enougth.

Wave at 40W is of interest to me.

[vortex_liam]

Not my cup of coffie, but it is quite intresting to see but i don't get this is it title waves?

p.s I am stupid in this type of thing...

[summer blizzard]

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N47W TO FRENCH GUIANA AT 3N53W

MOVING W 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE

IMAGERY WITH THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER

MOISTURE MAXIMUM. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED

STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN

50W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD

CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED

MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-17N

BETWEEN 73W-77W.

Good chance that either of these waves could develop.

[Gray-Wolf]

Not my cup of coffie, but it is quite intresting to see but i don't get this is it title waves?

p.s I am stupid in this type of thing...

The 'wave' is the area where an L.P. might form and ,given the conditions there to feed it, can grow beyond a storm ad into a 'Cane.

You'll see ,if you look at the IR of east Atlantic, big blobs of storms working across Africa ( the ITCZ or Inter Tropical Convergence Zone). When they fall off into the Atlantic it is these areas that can end up growing into a 'Cane.

I check both the NHC forecasts and look at what's falling into the Atlantic that day (as a 'heads up') when I take a peep at the 'Cane's each day.

Edited July 3, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[summer blizzard]

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N60W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO

NRN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N64W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED

IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE

WATER IMAGERY. WAVE ALSO LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT TO

THE ERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS ENHANCING

CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION

IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 61W-65W...AND FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN

57W-62W.

Good chance this system could develop.

[Iceberg]

I think this one was first seen by GW leaving Africa, Well it's limply making it's way across the Atlantic and is still going with good cyclonic flow, but poor precip IMO as it's clamped down upon by the stable conditions.

It needs to survive the next 48 hrs intact then maybe worth watching as the steering currents take it due west.

"TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N30W TO 6N31W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW WELL-DEFINED

CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A

MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER

IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF

THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 30W-35W."

[Gray-Wolf]

There's another 'potential wave crest' dropped off Africa over the last 24hrs so things seem to be settling into a 'production line'!

All we need is the right conditions ,mid atlantic onwards, and we'll have our first 'biggy'!

[Cookie]

this wave is up to 10%

KNHC 151754

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE

ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS

CURRENTLY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW

DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW

CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[Gray-Wolf]

this wave is up to 10%

And ,as the image shows, another large area of storms just dropping off into the ocean followed by another large area of storms. Surely we're not far off from having multiple storms in the Basin?

[Iceberg]

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND

ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15

MPH. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN OVER THIS AREA...AND SHOWER

ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A MORE CONCENTRATED JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD

ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE

AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF

DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED

WITH THE DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS."

and the next

"2. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER

MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN

ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE

MORE CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF JAMAICA...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS

OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES

GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20

PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS."

I actually like the look of both of them, but the 2nd one has the best chance IMO as it tracks slowly westwards, Unlike the NHC I think some signs of a circulation are becoming evident, but convection is still lacking. Overall though a good call on the 20% chances.

Edited July 19, 2010 by Iceberg

[johnholmes]

I am certainly no expert on this subject but spotted this in the link below?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Ross B]

Yep john, I'm in Florida at the moment so am keeping an eye on that. Forecasters here are suggesting a 60% chance of development with the majority of models bringing it across Florida in a few days. Either way it will increase the upper level moisture needed for storms here as it is unusually dry at the moment!!

[Iceberg]

Looking at the longer range models pressure in the mid atlantic above the ITCZ is due to decrease, GFS has it decreasing next week, ECM slighly longer at the very end of July/Beginning of Aug.

This will finally allow the waves leaving Africa to travel across the Atlantic without going pizz fizz puff half way across.

As always it seems to be tied with the improved UK weather as the Azores high finally starts to migrate further NE.

The period between the 28th of July and 5th of August could well see the start of the anticipated Atlantic Hurricane conveyor this year.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Next potential target.

Right now at about 58W there is a tropical wave lacking convection, in the next 24-48 hours, this will interact with the homegrown convection south of Cuba, when this happens, we should see cyclonic turning and our next system.

[Gray-Wolf]

This ,i think?, we spotted 'falling off Africa 4 days back? There seems to be one after that and one more just plopping in (with potential later!).

I may be looking at things from NHC clouded glasses but they did say 'busy' din't they (damn that Saharan Dust!!!)

[summer blizzard]

This ,i think?, we spotted 'falling off Africa 4 days back? There seems to be one after that and one more just plopping in (with potential later!).

I may be looking at things from NHC clouded glasses but they did say 'busy' din't they (damn that Saharan Dust!!!)

We are still on course for a busy season, most seasons have 80% of their total in the August-October period, so we already have two.

[Cookie]

This ,i think?, we spotted 'falling off Africa 4 days back? There seems to be one after that and one more just plopping in (with potential later!).

I may be looking at things from NHC clouded glasses but they did say 'busy' din't they (damn that Saharan Dust!!!)

we're still in line for a busy season mate, just takes a couple of storms in the next few weeks.

[summer blizzard]

we're still in line for a busy season mate, just takes a couple of storms in the next few weeks.

Technically we are running bang on average. In an average season, you have nine storms in the August-October period, with two in July, a storm in June or November is statistically unlikely.

[kold weather]

I have no worries about this season, thus far it has been running VERY close tio 1998 in terms of upper patterns and we appear to be running ahead of 1998 at the moment. That season ended up with Georges and Mitch being real beasts for the Caribbean and the US. The MJO should shift into a more favourable phase soon and when that happens between the 10-15th August things will really kick off and the true meat of the season will develop. No reason why we won't have something between 15-18NS still...

Anyway there is a wavwe just about to exit Africa that needs to be watched. The models are developing a system from it, even the ECM which normally is quite held back develops a system from it and strengthens it quite a lot towards the end of the run.