Model Watch For Tour 3

[Paul]

Ok, it's a long way off at this point so more for fun and possible trend spotting at this stage but I reckon the time has come to start following the models in the lead up to tour 3 - especially since I'm heading out to the USA for this one!!

Today's 12z isn't exactly shabby!!

[dogs32]

lol Paul....you succumbed to the temptation and head for T3

and I reckon a wise decision

[Paul]

Today's 12z run is a bit different to yesterdays, it gives a bit of action to start the tour then a bit quieter for a bit after that - heck of a long way to go yet though!

[craig1uk]

Just casting my very untrained eye over the usa charts for tour three, looking a lot better than they did yesterday, they sure change a lot day to day don't they !

[IanM]

I have requested some impressive storms, supercells and tornadoes for Tour 3, just waiting on a reply

[Paul]

Your request has defo been ignored on this afternoon's run. Hot and pretty much storm free to start the chase..

Sure to change though, tis jumping all over the place at the moment - can't see any pattern developing yet.

[craig1uk]

The charts look good again today, the first weekend of tour three looks a belter, hope that stays the case

[IanM]

OK, I have now looked at around 3000 of the different charts on here, where can I find the right one??

Ta

[Paul]

This page:

http://www.netweathe...usacharts;sess=

For a rough idea, convective precip and cape/lifted index are a good guide!

As Craig said - a pretty quick start to the tour shown tonight, it's gonna keep changing run to run for a few days yet though:

[Dorsetbred]

This page:

http://www.netweathe...usacharts;sess=

For a rough idea, convective precip and cape/lifted index are a good guide!

As Craig said - a pretty quick start to the tour shown tonight, it's gonna keep changing run to run for a few days yet though:

Any updates??

Assuming British Airways doesn't screw with my flight too badly I hope to be in town on the 19th.

[Paul]

Following the 12z runs at the moment, missed yesterday but will do one today - the 06z doesn't look too bad at all though....

[Paul]

Well, another run passes and although it could be better, it could certainly be a lot worse - so decent signs.

The start of the tour moves into the higher resolution portion of the model from tomorrow so that may hopefully be the start of the process of firming up some sort of pattern, as it's been pretty random so far..

[Nick F]

Although the above charts are not in the reliable timeframe yet, and should be taken with a small pinch of salt, the CAPE does look pretty, but ideally you want a strong jet streak (shown by the reds) overlaying the CAPE for severe storms, unfortunately the strongest part of jet has taken a holiday way north over Canada! You'd still get 'pulse' type storms popping up in the heat of the day across the Plains, but no particularly severe weather, more especially tornadoes, without the strong winds aloft.

12z ECM 500mb HGT charts show the strongest upper flow also taking a hike over Canada with a slack but slightly cyclonic flow over the Mid-West, so all-in-all could be better, but plenty of time for a change to a stronger upper flow across the Plains:

[Paul]

And as if it has listened over night, the 00z run has bough the jet much closer by for the start of the tour:

[Dorsetbred]

And as if it has listened over night, the 00z run has bough the jet much closer by for the start of the tour:

Come to mama.....

[IanM]

Can we also see charts for volcanic ash and predicted BA long haul flights please :lol:

[Paul]

Errm, not so pretty today - jet on a holiday to the north again and high pressure close by:

Even with this sort of setup there still ought to be some storms about, just not of the uber exciting variety. Still bags of time for this to change though, particularly with the fact that it's swinging backwards and forwards from run to run right now.

[Paul]

Well nowt too exciting to report from this evening's GFS - a bit of activity on day 1 of the tour being shown:

Probably best not to look too much beyond that right now!!

[Dorsetbred]

Well nowt too exciting to report from this evening's GFS - a bit of activity on day 1 of the tour being shown:

Probably best not to look too much beyond that right now!!

Easing tour three in gently then by the look of that.

[Nick F]

Looks rather ridgy over central US at beginning of tour 3 on the 8-10 day ECM and GFS 500mb HGT comparisons and the prognostic 8-14 day mean 500mb HGTs this evening:

The Pacific trough may progress towards the Great Plains quicker than modelled, worst case scenario would be the trough sitting out west over Pacific coast for the rest of the month, but plenty of time for the trough to progress toward the Plains. This worst case scenario may still yield small severe potential of storms over the northern High Plains of Montana and western Wyoming perhaps, where heights are lower/upper flow stronger and always upslope pulse storms elsewhere.

[Paul]

Cheers Nick.

00z shows something a bit more positive for the start of the tour this morning, with a small low pressure area not too far off, and even a strip of faster moving air aloft which ought to help should it come about.

As we're now into the higher res portion of the run for this part of the tour, the details will start to come out - but the usual health warning applies, it's subject to significant change at this range..

[Nick F]

Don't want to be a purveyor of doom, but still looks rather ridgy in the medium range in general across the mid-west on this morning ECM/GFS 8-10 day HGT comparisons - the period after team 3 land. There maybe minor disturbances/trough undercutting the upper ridge across New Mexico and Texas, but severe storms would likely be isolated with lack of upper support of strong upper winds, as the chart Paul shows above.

There will always be storms to be had somewhere over the Plains even a in a upper ridge set-up, as tour 3 last year managed to find non-severe storms everyday of our 10 days under a 'death ridge', mainly upslope storms over the High Plains. And of course, some way off these projections, and it maybe the Pacific trough progresses towards the Plains, rather than holding back along the Pacific coast.

Fingers crossed it'll improve!!

[Paul]

Just off out so no time to post images up, but tonights gfs 12z looks a bit more favourable to me - with the risk of isolated severe stuff early in the tour, possibly continuing through to the middle part of the tour too and then potentially something more widespread in the latter part of the tour as the jet moves back south again.

Obviously way off yet and only one run - but definitely more positive than other runs of late..

[Gorky]

I'm certainly not negative about any of the prospects. The ECM has been trending towards less ridging with each run for a few days. Even the period towards the end of Tour 2 which was shown as ridged out a few days back has some upper troughs trying to push into the western us and they should keep the gulf pumping moisture northwards. With the lack of any upper support over the target areas, I don't see any outbreaks on the horizon, but with these setups, you can almost expect to chase lower end risks every day (and like today and Wednesday, lower risks can be profitable!) It's been keen to bring in a big trough for the northern plains around the 23rd or 24th for a little while also. Could see a bigger event up in Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado area if that comes off in my opinion.

[Paul]

Cheers Nathan - improved trend continues this morning too

Trend in the longer term is definitely for less ridging than was shown a few days back, so hopefully that continues. At slightly shorter range, the first couple of chase days for tour 3 are starting to look pretty good:

Day1

Day2

Now, must go sort some washing out or I'm going to be wearing the same clothes for most of the tour