Model Watch For Tour 3

[Paul]

Promising 4-8 day outlook from the SPC:

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE DAY 4

TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT

PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WRN STATES. THE ECMWF AND

GFS MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 AND

DEVELOPS A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MOIST

WARM SECTOR SHOULD EXIST IN THE SRN PLAINS WITH SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE

POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON THURSDAY/DAY 6...THE ECMWF AND GFS

SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WITH BOTH MODELS MOVING THE SYSTEM

INTO THE MS VALLEY BY FRIDAY/DAY 7. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WILL

BE POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH. ATTM...ORGANIZATION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE CNTRL

U.S. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT

AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[craig1uk]

I'll take that, be good to get our teeth into some solid chasing in the first few days, bring it on !!!!

[Paul Sherman]

Looking like a Classic Outbreak for next weekend - Get ready Tour 3

Paul S

[IanM]

Now we're cooking, so long as the ash cloud permits, I think Tour 3 is on for a good run....