Chase 2010 - Day 14 Discussion

[Roger J Smith]

Currently looks explosive with dry line about 20 miles west of OK-TX border. Tropical warm sector is setting up over western OK and satellite imagery shows likely initiation zone just southwest of Gage OK ... I think you may find that Perry is about as far north as you need to go, expecting supercell development between Woodward and Clinton with cells moving ENE at 40-50 knots. The explosive nature of situation feeds off the low-level wedge of cold air trapped under cloud in eastern KS and n.e. OK. There is also the fact that upper-level low translates rapidly east from central Colorado to central Kansas next 12h and yet the tropical air is not pushed very far south due to trailing wave formation in AZ. This all conspires to produce a narrow east-west zone of severe storm development likely to be viewable as northern parts of the risk zone will be over low cloud layers -- some people in KS around Dodge City to Wichita are under threat of a tornado developing suddenly out of a foggy, rainy pre-frontal situation, which is not a good scenario for chasing or avoiding. But further south where cloud layers are breaking rapidly, would wager that team will be seeing large possibly wedge tornadoes around 21-22z in the I-35 corridor and there may be several to choose during formative stages. OKC in the mix, let's hope these bad boys form over open country and stay there, as there is definitely F4-5 potential here today, and I don't think it will wait until late in the day this time either.

[NL]

Line of Cu along the cold front have recently initiated.

Latest visible satellite image.

Tornado watch.

643

WWUS20 KWNS 101735

SEL6

SPC WW 101735

COZ000-KSZ000-110000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 146

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1235 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN COLORADO

WESTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL

700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF

GOODLAND KANSAS TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE

KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM

ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS IN THE NEXT FEW

HOURS...AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. STRONG LARGE

SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THE RISK OF A

FEW TORNADOES. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE

OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...HART

Edited May 10, 2010 by NL

[ian cameron]

hows that for you folks we have just had sean casey live on the stream and is now posing for photos lol

[John Hanrahan]

hows that for you folks we have just had sean casey live on the stream and is now posing for photos lol

Did he apologize for being a massive pain to me every time I come across them at a 4 way stop. :lol:

[NL]

Another MD, concerning tornado watch for Northern Oklahoma and Southern Kansas, it says Southern Oklahoma but i think its a typo-error.

530

ACUS11 KWNS 101747

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 101746

OKZ000-KSZ000-101945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1246 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101746Z - 101945Z

SIGNS FOR STORM INITIATION ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED. ONCE

ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...WITH AN INCREASING RISK

FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL

BE REQUIRED...PERHAPS WITHIN THE HOUR.

AS A 90+ KT CYCLONIC...WESTERLY...500 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO

NOSE EASTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW

HOURS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENING/MIXING PROGRESSES TO THE WEST

OF THE DRY LINE...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM APPEARS LIKELY TO

SUPPORT A RAPID DRY LINE SURGE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONGEST

LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME

FOCUSED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AXIS...ACROSS

NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN

THIS FORCING...COUPLED WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION AS LOW/MID-LEVEL

LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT INTO

THE REGION...CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY

SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG

SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 19-21Z.

ALTHOUGH 50+ KT 850 MB FLOW WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT VEERED...TO A MORE

SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY REMAIN

BACKED...AT A SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT... WITHIN A BROAD

RETREATING WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THIS PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN LARGE

CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE... SUPPORTIVE OF

STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOSCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. SOME UNCERTAINTY

EXISTS CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY STORMS WILL BECOME TORNADIC. BUT

TORNADO POTENTIAL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE PRIOR TO

00Z...AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH OF THE

RED RIVER TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS/ NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... VERY LARGE HAIL AND

LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST VIGOROUS

STORMS.

..KERR.. 05/10/2010

Edited May 10, 2010 by NL

[ian cameron]

thanks for that NL we are holding tight in perry atm and Paul will decide where to go shortly

[NL]

PDS issued......!!!!

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 147

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

125 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS

CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE

POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

FORT SILL OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WICHITA KANSAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...

DISCUSSION...AN DANGEROUS ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF

SOUTHERN KS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS RAPIDLY

DESTABILIZES AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE

EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN

OK...THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH THE

THREAT OF STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO

LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.

...HART

[Harry]

I've got a strong feeling for a line between Wichita and Salina! I had a similar feeling for this location on thursday when we had the supercell...I'm not suggesting that this area will necessarily get 'the' historical event, but I think there'll certainly be some very severe storms here, and there are good roads with great viewing options available!

Fingers crossed for the guys and gal on Tour 2!! Have to say not encouraged by the speed of the clouds zipping past...

Edited May 10, 2010 by Harry

[NL]

Tornado warnings coming in from that cell in the far sw Kansas. Spotters in the area have reported funnel clouds.

[Gorky]

I'm on spotter network today, guys... just in case you want to know where I am. Sat north of Nash watching some distant CU trying to breach the cap. A long way off at the moment. Gonna hold a while before deciding on which area to follow, though I suspect it will be the south cell which is trying to get going...

[NL]

Storms have initiated about 60-70 mile W/SW of Enid.... The storm with the ID J0 is developing pretty quickly and is currently dropping golfball sized hail.

Now severe Td's warned.

324

WUUS54 KOUN 101911

SVROUN

OKC003-093-151-153-102015-

/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0052.100510T1911Z-100510T2015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

211 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

NORTHWESTERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

WOODS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

EASTERN WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 211 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF QUINLAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...

WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

[Harry]

Now the sudden bolt (excuse the punne) towards Enid makes sense :o

Go team go!! lol

Skies looking much better now than that horrible grey murk!!

[NL]

That cell is now Tornado warned...

545

WFUS54 KOUN 101922

TOROUN

OKC003-093-151-153-102015-

/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0003.100510T1922Z-100510T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

222 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

NORTHWESTERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

SOUTHEASTERN WOODS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

EASTERN WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 222 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF QUINLAN...MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ALINE...AMORITA...BURLINGTON...

BYRON...CARMEN...CHEROKEE...DACOMA...DRIFTWOOD...GREAT SALT PLAINS

LAKE...HOPETON...INGERSOLL...JET...LAMBERT...QUINLAN...WALDRON AND

WAYNOKA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO THREAT... THIS STORM LIKELY CONTAINS

DAMAGING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS OR LARGER.

[Ross B]

Think i can see the top of the CB on the stream now? Good luck guys

[Nick F]

CAPE reaching 4500 j/kg over NW Oklahoma on hourly mesoanalysis:

Storms over NW OK and SW KS moving increasingly into environment with higher SR Helicity values/LL wind shear, which means high risk of tornadoes:

[Wilxy]

Amazing looking cell at the moment im getting excited just watching it grow

[Stormyking]

Wow starting to look amazing, Im gunna stay up to watch this despite college tomorrow.

edit

Nooooo mine has frozen ahhhhhh.

Edited May 10, 2010 by Stormyking

[Stuart]

yes it stop for me to

Edited May 10, 2010 by Stuart

[Wilxy]

think they have lost signal mine froze and my friends has aswel

It was looking amazing thought i spoted lightening twice.

[John Hanrahan]

think they have lost signal mine froze and my friends has aswel

Yes, been on to Ian and they have lost coverage. It should come back soon

[SteveB]

Yep mines gone down too

[Stuart]

it back here now

[John Hanrahan]

And they back

[Wilxy]

its back

[Tornado Researcher]

yes , it's back here too

That supercell is looking mighty awesome too

Perhaps we'll see a monster wedge today. although hopefully it'll stay out in the open plains where no-one will get hurt

Edited May 10, 2010 by Tornado Researcher