Severe Tropical Cyclone Laila

[Somerset Squall]

The first tropical cyclone of the North Indian Ocean 2010 season has formed from invest 92B. 01B is located in the central Bay of Bengal and is moving westwards towards the east coast of India. 01B's intensity is currently at 35kts, and the cyclone consists of a well defined LLC with good amounts of central convection and strong convective banding. These are good bases for intensification which is likely given the low shear/good upper outflow environment 01B is in. Waters are a toasty 32C aswell which should really help to boost intensity. 01B could be approaching cat 2 status on the SS scale as it nears the east coast of India. A subtropical ridge to the north currently steering 01B westwards should gradually erode as a trough approaches from the west. This should transistion 01B's westward track to a northeasterly one as the ridge re-orientates itself to the southeast of the cyclone. This means that although 01B is likely to make landfall near Visakhapatnam, the cyclone could well re-emerge back over water to re-strengthen later this week. Certainly one to closely watch, the really warm waters could make this a dangerous storm at landfall...

[kold weather]

I see no reason why this system won't strengthen into quite a powerful cyclone by the time it threatens landfall. Conditions aloft look good with low shear and good outflow channels and a decent inflow as well and as you say the water is very hot at the moment in the Indian Ocean, being a good 2C above average in parts and reaching 31-32C fairly widely where 01B currently is located.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this reach 100-115kts before landfall, the only uncertainty is where landfall actually occurs. The models vary somewhat on just how far west this system gets before it lifts out to the north, obviously if it stays just offshore its going to rake the east coast of India...a fairly tough call I'd imagine.

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

01B has intensified through the day and intensity has risen to 50kts. The cyclone has been given the name Laila by IMD. Laila has accelerated towards the east coast of India and probably has another 24-36hrs before landfall. Probably being the operative word. Cookie's image above shows the current thinking on track from the JTWC, but the timing of the northward turn is crucial to Laila's near term and long term intensity. The further west Laila travels, the less likely it is that the cyclone will be able to emerge over water after the landfall.

Laila has a solid central dense overcast feature forming and I wouldn't be surprised to see some type of eye soon. If the current track verifies, I'm still thinking around cat 2 at landfall, unless Laila really makes use of the good conditions and rapidly intensifies.

[Cookie]

N Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 18 May, 2010 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm LAILA (01B) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

India

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kavali (15.0 N, 80.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Nellore (14.4 N, 80.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Machilipatnam (16.2 N, 81.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Madras (13.1 N, 80.2 E)

probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kakinada (17.0 N, 82.3 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

A while since you've posted one of those Cookie, cheers! Very useful when it comes to landfall situations.

Laila continues to strengthen, and intensity is now 55kts. The cyclone should reach cat 1 on SS scale by morning, particularly as it appears an eye feature is just beginning to form. This one could well cause some damage and heavy flooding, particularly as Laila is a large storm.

[Somerset Squall]

Laila has become a cat 1 on the SS scale this morning, with intensity now at 65kts. The cyclone has been moving west-northwestwards since formation but track has now shifted to the northwest in response to the subtropical steering ridge beginning to re-orientate. Landfall should occur within the next 24hrs, and Laila has the opportunity to become stronger before then. I think high end cat 1, possibly low end cat 2 on landfall seems most likely. IMD are urging residents to remain indoors warning of extensive damage to trees and buildings and widespread flooding. If the northeastward turn is sharper than forecast then Laila may well re-emerge over the northern Bay Of Bengal where she could re-intensify.

[Cookie]

[Cookie]

A lot less well organized today.

and producing a heck of a lot of rainfall.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, Laila has moved inland and has weakened accordingly to 50kts. However, this hasn't stopped the cyclone unleashing some extremley heavy rains to the Andhra Pradesh coast. Mountainous terrain will further weaken Laila as it swings to the northeast. There is a cahnce of some re-intensification as Laila briefly re-emerges over water before making another landfall in Bangledesh.

[Cookie]

15 killed at least and 50,000 evacuated

HYDERABAD, India — A southern Indian state declared a cyclone alert and evacuated more than 50,000 people Thursday as the region braced for its worst storm in 14 years.

Cyclone Laila was expected to slam into the coast of Andhra Pradesh state from the Bay of Bengal later Thursday. Heavy rains and strong winds killed at least 15 people over the past 24 hours, including four workers when an industrial workshop collapsed because of heavy rain, authorities said. At least 55 fishermen were reported missing.

Even before the cyclone hit, some parts of the state had been hit by up to 1 foot (32 centimeters) of rain, officials said.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g8JY9em2AC3On6ftaYp5WPANVwpAD9FQDOJ80

[Somerset Squall]

Very sad news but not really surprising given Laila's strength and the huge amount of convection associated with the storm. The number of fatalities has risen to 56.

Laila has further weakened as she moves northeastwards inland. Intensity is reduced to 35kts currently. Laila could still emerge over the northern Bay Of Bengal but significant re-intensification appears unlikely before Laila races towards and makes landfall in Bangledesh.

[Somerset Squall]

Laila weakened to a remnant low yesterday but has since emerged over the warm waters of the northern Bay Of Bengal. Convection is increasing over the LLC once more, however, the LLC is in a weakened state after the long track over land. Laila may be able to briefly re-generate into a tropical cycloen before racing eastwards towards landfall in Myanmar.