Glastonbury Forecast 2010

[J10]

The is the place for discussing Glastonbury 2010, over the next week we will be building up the forecasts and seeing the latest trends before avidly looking at GFS and ECM as they come closer into view. Just a word of caution though last year looked very promising for a heatwave but weather pattens changed to give some heavy thunderstorms and this was only signposted a few days before the festival.

There will also be a return of Heatwave/Washoutometer for the likely weather for the Glastonbury festival.

Please feel free to put your thoughts here,and any early thoughts including teleconnections are more than welcomed here.

[Jezzer]

Thanks for kicking this off again JACKONE, I know this thread is appreciated by all those attending Glasto, let's hope for fine weather, I'm sure it's going to be a rollercoaster once again as we approach the Festival!

[buddhafish]

+1 on the thanks for setting up this thread. I'll be lurking, and lurching wildly between excitement and dread depending on the output. :lol:

[niblet]

The is the place for discussing Glastonbury 2010, over the next week we will be building up the forecasts and seeing the latest trends before avidly looking at GFS and ECM as they come closer into view. Just a word of caution though last year looked very promising for a heatwave but weather pattens changed to give some heavy thunderstorms and this was only signposted a few days before the festival.

There will also be a return of Heatwave/Washoutometer for the likely weather for the Glastonbury festival.

Please feel free to put your thoughts here,and any early thoughts including teleconnections are more than welcomed here.

I know that the efestivals glasto crowd have been eagerly awaiting for this (I for one have!)

Looking forward to the first long range predictions (I hope we have predictions of weather that are similar to this weekend )

[Glastofreak]

I know that the efestivals glasto crowd have been eagerly awaiting for this (I for one have!)

Looking forward to the first long range predictions (I hope we have predictions of weather that are similar to this weekend )

We are only on page 27 so far and any post from you will quickly kick it on to 50 :unsure: thanks for all your work

[J10]

Here is the first forecast for the season, at this stage we are looking for trends and expect many ups and downs in the forecast over the next month.

CFS based on run published 23 May - Largely unsettled conditions with the chance of a few showers,temps would likely be in the mid teens.

CFS based on run published 24 May - Settled conditions to start, but low pressure pushing in from the west bringing bands of rain at the same time,giving quite a wet festival period, the only saving grace is the temps in the low to mid 20s.

So on the limited data so far, the chance of a wet festival is quite high,there will a midweek update, before the first blog is set be issued on Saturday.

[The watcher]

Did you consider doing one for "Download Festival" in Donington Park in 2 weeks time?

I'm off to that one and probably a few others here are too.

[J10]

Did you consider doing one for "Download Festival" in Donington Park in 2 weeks time?

I'm off to that one and probably a few others here are too.

There is an automatic forecast (based on the GFS) set up for that festival on this page http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=events;sess=

Click Music Festivals and Download in this case to find the latest forecast which should appear in next couple of days.

If you want others added please contact the team and we will that festival/event to the list.

[William of Walworth]

Thankyou so much for renewing this service JACKONE, it really is fully appreciated by all Glastonbury goers on efests (and elsewhere too, when I alert them to it)

Forecast is too far away from the crucial week beginning 22nd June for us to place too many up or down reactions to outline 'prospects' at this stage.

So for now, I intend to ignore any talk of 'unsettled' still less 'wet', in the hope that the trends move in the opposite direction the nearer we get ...

All Glastonbury goers : we will once again be Info Crewing, not sure which tent or shifts yet, but if you have questions once there, we'll be the people to approach ....

when we're not off duty anyway

[J10]

Thankyou so much for renewing this service JACKONE, it really is fully appreciated by all Glastonbury goers on efests (and elsewhere too, when I alert them to it)

Forecast is too far away from the crucial week beginning 22nd June for us to place too many up or down reactions to outline 'prospects' at this stage.

So for now, I intend to ignore any talk of 'unsettled' still less 'wet', in the hope that the trends move in the opposite direction the nearer we get ...

All Glastonbury goers : we will once again be Info Crewing, not sure which tent or shifts yet, but if you have questions once there, we'll be the people to approach ....

when we're not off duty anyway

I saw what you said about my forecast on efestivals, . However I will do my best as to issuing a "better" forecast for you. Later this evening I will give a bit more detail on how I compile my forecast, and in many ways people are right to be sceptical this far out, and we are very much only looking at trends at the moment.

[J10]

At this stage of the forecast,I look at the daily forecast from the CFS (Climate Forecasting System), and look at pressure, rainfall and temps. From this I then will do a brief summary for each run. I will also look at the ensembles to see if the ensembles agree with this.

In the first Forecast Blog, I will also look at the monthly forecasts from the CFS. I will also consider teleconnetions and likely pattern from experts on Net Weather.

Previous Summaries

CFS based on run published 23 May - Largely unsettled conditions with the chance of a few showers,temps would likely be in the mid teens.

CFS based on run published 24 May - Settled conditions to start, but low pressure pushing in from the west bringing bands of rain at the same time,giving quite a wet festival period, the only saving grace is the temps in the low to mid 20s.

New Summaries

CFS based on run published 25 May - High Pressure over Scandinavia on the Wednesday slowly losing its influence over the UK and allowing low pressure to edge in for the weekend. Looking Very wet with some heavy rain for the weekend, Temps in the mid to high teens.

CFS based on run published 26 May - Low Pressure over the UK for the Wednesday to Friday, before High Pressure starts to ridge in from the South West for the weekend. Wet on Wednesday, potentially very wet on Thursday, wet again on Friday, but a drier weekend. A cool festival with temps in the low to mid teens.

So again the early indications are for an unsettled festival, but plenty of time for the weather to change before then.

[The watcher]

There is an automatic forecast (based on the GFS) set up for that festival on this page http://www.netweathe...on=events;sess=

Click Music Festivals and Download in this case to find the latest forecast which should appear in next couple of days.

If you want others added please contact the team and we will that festival/event to the list.

Ahh, never knew that existed. Cheers.

I'll redirect the folks from the festival site to that until I release my preliminary forecast Monday evening.

They love the fact I'm a weather boff, we are hoping for a plume, so when AC/DC kick into Thunderstruck we get some storms making the atmosphere a bit more electric. haha.

[J10]

The first forecast blog has been issued here

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/62701-glastonbury-forecast-blog-1/

[J10]

The second forecast blog has been issued here.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/62778-glastonbury-forecast-blog-2/

And from today I will also start looknig at the forecast according to GFS, each relates to conditions ending Monday 21st June.

00Hz -> Low Pressure bang on top of the UK on the 21st June, with some wet conditions.

06Hz -> High Pressure to the South west of the UK edging closer, ending a wet spell for the previous few days.

12Hz -> High Pressure starting to ridge up from the south West on the 21st June, again ending a wet spell over the UK.

[J10]

The second forecast blog has been issued here.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/62778-glastonbury-forecast-blog-2/

And from today I will also start looknig at the forecast according to GFS, each relates to conditions ending Monday 21st June.

00Hz -> Low Pressure bang on top of the UK on the 21st June, with some wet conditions.

06Hz -> High Pressure to the South west of the UK edging closer, ending a wet spell for the previous few days.

12Hz -> High Pressure starting to ridge up from the south West on the 21st June, again ending a wet spell over the UK.

Continuing on from last night

18Hz -> High Pressure starting to build up from the South west, but also high pressure never too far away from the preceding week either.

And Now for today's updates.

00Hz -> A ridge of High Pressure again from the South west giving more settled conditions for the Monday 21st and Tuesday 22nd.

06Hz -> Low Pressure pushing in from the North West from the weekend before the festival. This would give a wet build up to the festival and with the low pressure waiting in the wings to the west, a wet start to the festival as well.

12Hz -> High Pressure building up from the south west again from the weekend before the festival, and lying bang on top of the UK by the Tuesday (as per below).

Latest Met Office Update

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Jun 2010 to Monday 5 Jul 2010:

Indications show a mixture of drier and brighter interludes but still with a signal of more unsettled weather at times. Rainfall and sunshine amounts are therefore expected to be around average throughout the period. Temperatures should be near or slightly below normal, but perhaps slightly above in parts of southern and eastern England.

Updated: 1241 on Sun 6 Jun 2010

[Paul]

Glasto forecast now online on the site - the mudbath and heatwave ratings will be back within the next few days too..

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=events;type=Music+Festival;place=Glastonbury;sess=

[buddhafish]

Glasto forecast now online on the site - the mudbath and heatwave ratings will be back within the next few days too..

http://www.netweathe...astonbury;sess=

Hi, could I point out that most Glasto goers look at the full 5 days weather between Wednesday morning (23rd) through to Sunday? It's very much a 5 day event nowadays, so is it possible for the Netweather forecast to reflect that? Or is that being cheeky?

Thanks!

[Paul]

Hi, could I point out that most Glasto goers look at the full 5 days weather between Wednesday morning (23rd) through to Sunday? It's very much a 5 day event nowadays, so is it possible for the Netweather forecast to reflect that? Or is that being cheeky? :blush:

Thanks!

No problem - the forecast will run from the 23rd to the 27th as soon as it moves into range

One thing to bear in mind when it comes to any automatic forecast outside of 7 days is that it will tend to jump about a bit, so best to a. not get too excited/depressed with what it's showing from run to run and b. follow Julian's blog, plus the written forecast which will appear on that page alongside it as they'll present a more balanced and view taking a wider range of info into account!!

[buddhafish]

No problem - the forecast will run from the 23rd to the 27th as soon as it moves into range

One thing to bear in mind when it comes to any automatic forecast outside of 7 days is that it will tend to jump about a bit, so best to a. not get too excited/depressed with what it's showing from run to run and b. follow Julian's blog, plus the written forecast which will appear on that page alongside it as they'll present a more balanced and view taking a wider range of info into account!!

Nice one. :blush:

As for the advice to "not get too excited/depressed with what it's showing from run to run" it's a sad fact that most Glasto goers lurch between the two states quite easily where the weather is concerned! But I take your point.

Thanks again - there's a whole audience over in the Glasto forums that tune into you guys avidly through June, and the work is appreciated.

[William of Walworth]

12Hz -> High Pressure building up from the south west again from the weekend before the festival, and lying bang on top of the UK by the Tuesday (as per below).

Updated: 1241 on Sun 6 Jun 2010

I dream of this one coming true!!! Very Glasto 1995 like ...

Fingers crossed folks ...

[J10]

Glasto forecast now online on the site - the mudbath and heatwave ratings will be back within the next few days too..

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=events;type=Music+Festival;place=Glastonbury;sess=

Cheers for this.

Hi, could I point out that most Glasto goers look at the full 5 days weather between Wednesday morning (23rd) through to Sunday? It's very much a 5 day event nowadays, so is it possible for the Netweather forecast to reflect that? Or is that being cheeky?

Thanks!

All of the Blogs I do tend to cover the 5 days of the festival, however with the GFS only just coming into range it is a case initially at least at looking at the start of the festival.

[J10]

Continuing on from last night

18Hz -> High Pressure starting to build up from the South west, but also high pressure never too far away from the preceding week either.

And Now for today's updates.

00Hz -> A ridge of High Pressure again from the South west giving more settled conditions for the Monday 21st and Tuesday 22nd.

06Hz -> Low Pressure pushing in from the North West from the weekend before the festival. This would give a wet build up to the festival and with the low pressure waiting in the wings to the west, a wet start to the festival as well.

12Hz -> High Pressure building up from the south west again from the weekend before the festival, and lying bang on top of the UK by the Tuesday (as per below).

Latest Met Office Update

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Jun 2010 to Monday 5 Jul 2010:

Indications show a mixture of drier and brighter interludes but still with a signal of more unsettled weather at times. Rainfall and sunshine amounts are therefore expected to be around average throughout the period. Temperatures should be near or slightly below normal, but perhaps slightly above in parts of southern and eastern England.

Updated: 1241 on Sun 6 Jun 2010

Starting off again with last night 18Hz (Sunday)

High Pressure pushing up from the south west on the Friday before the festival, and high pressure over the UK by the Monday and Tuesday and looking well set for the opening days of the festival(at least).

Now Today GFS and the first time these actually forecast the Wednesday of the festival, admittedly only at T+384. so still well into FI.

00Hz A battleground scenario with Low Pressure to the North East giving some wet weather for the weekend before the festival, but High pressure trying to edge in again from the west /South west, settling things down by the Wednesday.

06Hz High Pressure pushing in the Friday before the festival, but starting to edge away on the Tuesday, possibly allowing Atlantic fronts to edge in, however with High Pressure not to far away to the east.

12Hz High Pressure becoming dominant mid next, but slowly turning unsettled from the South East on the Monday before the festival, for the Wednesday itself, HP again to the SW, but with the chance of some fronts from the NW.

18Hz High Pressure trying to dominate from the south, but fronts looking to being some rain into NW parts of the UK.

Some agreement today of the weather settling down next week (with this week looking very unsettled). For the Glastonbury festival itself the Azores High tries to remain in control, but with fronts coming in over the top of it from the Atlantic, or even from the North West.

Latest Met Office Forecast

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Jun 2010 to Tuesday 6 Jul 2010:

Indications continue to show a mixture of drier and brighter interludes but still with a signal of more unsettled weather at times. Rainfall and sunshine amounts are therefore expected to be around average throughout the period. Temperatures should be near or slightly below normal, but perhaps slightly above in parts of southern and eastern England.

Updated: 1323 on Mon 7 Jun 2010

[Jezzer]

The latest 06Z GFS looks a bit messy for the start of the Festival, we could do with that changing, all in FI of course!

[J10]

Bit Late for an update tonight, a full one will follow Wednesday evening, covering 2 days GFS outputs.

[J10]

As promised this is the updated look at Glastonbury featuring 2 days of GFS runs.

First the 00Hz run of Wednesday 8th High Pressure over the UK on the weekend before the festival, but this edging away to the west, allowing slighlty lower pressure and the potential for some showers for the first few days of the festival.

06Hz High presume slowly losing dominance over the UK the weekend before the festival, with low pressure taking its place from the Atlantic, for the Wednesday and Thursday of the festival, with some potential for heavy outbreaks of rain.

12Hz Deeply unsettled conditions the weekend before the festival, with Low pressure bang on top of the UK, but High Pressure starting to ridge up from the SW, and this settling things down a bit in time for the festival.

18Hz High Pressure in control for much of next week up to next weekend, but slowly losing control allowing Atlantic fronts to start to push in from the NW, on the Wednesday reaching Glastonbury late Thursday.

Now followed by the runs of Wednesday 9th

00Hz High Pressure in control for much of next week up to next weekend, but slowly losing control allowing a Low Pressure system to sit bang on top of the UK for the start of the festival, giving some very heavy rain at times, and mud bath potential.

06Hz High Pressure over the UK slowing diminishing on the weekend before the festival, but this edging away to the SW, allowing slightly lower pressure and the potential for some showers for the first few days of the festival.

12Hz Unsettled the weekend before the festival, but signs of High Pressure building to the west of the UK, this ridging across all parts by Wednesday so a dry first 3 days of the festival would be likely. Temps likely to be in high teens. However the Pressure ensemble tends not to support this, with pressure dropping as we move into the Glastonbury week.

18Hz

The High pressure tends to stay a little further west on this and never really dominates the scene over the UK, and by the start of the festival, it remains only sightly to the west of the UK, however that is enough to allow low pressure to push over the UK and give a wet start to the festival.

In many ways the weather pattern up until the weekend before Glastonbury is firming up, with settled weather for much of next week.

However that is where the confidence starts to really fade away. there is the chance of the High pressure slowly diminishing and edging back South West, with an unsettled period of weather following this either with rain or showers is possibly the most likely outcome, But todays 12Hz looks a little bit more promising.