Glastonbury Forecast 2010

[PompeyFC]

cheers Jack - seems to me though that there could be a pattern forming here of good weather next week followed by a low of some sort hanging around the UK the week after - I know better than to look into FI but all the same a few runs have been mooting this outcome it seems.

Model watching at this time of the year is almost as bad as Nov - Feb !

[thestixx]

I'm just hoping that with this high pressure being slowly pushed back from fully covering the UK, by the time it finally does it's influence will still be felt come Gladstock. This years is my 11th and I've experienced all aspects of weather, Altho I'd love sunsheeiinne throughout, as long as it stays dry I'll be a happy chappy!! Fingers crossed. I'm going down Tuesday night in readiness for the England game on weds too so not long for me to wait to see the fest weather in more reliable time frame.

[J10]

Time for today's updates.

00Hz High Pressure over Northern and Western parts of the UK with lower pressure for more South and Eastern parts of the UK, for the weekend before Glastonbury. This battle continuing right up until the Saturday of the festival with a chance of showers at times but with messy synoptics.

06Hz A familiar pattern of High pressure over the UK for until next weekend, with this edging South West allowing Low Pressure to push in from the north and west and with cold north winds by the midpoint of the festival, the precipitation charts show a high likelihood of some rain or showers.

12Hz A familiar pattern of High pressure over the UK for until next weekend, however the high-pressure tending to fizzle out. Low Pressure takes its place and deepens over the UK by the Wednesday and Thursday giving a wet start to the Glastonbury festival period.

18Hz

So the pattern continuing from yesterday and no reason to change the higher than average chance of a wet festival, however nothing is set in stone and the transition to unsettled weather from the High Pressure next weekend, looks messy synopticall and the Pressure ensemble looks more promising than any of today's operational runs.

[Jezzer]

Thanks Jackone, latest GFS paints a better picture, will be interesting to see how it develops throughout the day :winky:

[conor123]

Has there ever nice weather for Glastonbury?

I honestly can't remember a year it hasnt been on the news flooded.

[stuboy]

Has there ever nice weather for Glastonbury?

I honestly can't remember a year it hasnt been on the news flooded.

Last year wasn't too bad at all. It rained Thursday night into Friday morning, but then was fine and almost hot until the early hours of Monday morning. However I had gone by then ;-)

[trickydickie]

Has there ever nice weather for Glastonbury?

I honestly can't remember a year it hasnt been on the news flooded.

95 was a real toaster. I reckon near 30'c

96 was a festival fallow year but I remember it being decent weather late june/july

99 & 2000 were good too, sunny but not as warm

97,98 & 2005 were wash out years.

My recent Glastonbury's haven't been too bad but it has rained a little at all of them since 2002 as far as I can remember

[Pipine]

95 was a real toaster. I reckon near 30'c

96 was a festival fallow year but I remember it being decent weather late june/july

99 & 2000 were good too, sunny but not as warm

97,98 & 2005 were wash out years.

My recent Glastonbury's haven't been too bad but it has rained a little at all of them since 2002 as far as I can remember

I remember a really hot one around 1999/2000.. can't remember which year but we were sheltering from the heat in some empty yurts in the green fields.. it was too hot to be out and about. I'd love that again :-)

This is my 12th year.. most of those years have been mixed weather or very wet! Not many bone dry festivals so I think we're overdue one :-)

[frostypaw]

Has there ever nice weather for Glastonbury?

I honestly can't remember a year it hasnt been on the news flooded.

You have to realise that news programs love a muddy Glastonbury - it makes much more pleasing news than that everyone's having a whale of a time, and it takes very little rain for 180,000 pairs of feet to make a small muddy area appear somewhere... and the cameras come flooding.

The last two years were blissful sunny affairs, with little rain which had very little effect. They had to get trucks out spraying the paths with water to keep the dust down!

As to the other recent festivals 02 and 03 also very nice, 04 showery, 05 the flood, but otherwise glorious and if you weren't one of the few unfortunate it wasn't bad at all, 07 dreadful. Not the best record of late, but it's a loooong way from the news reports.

[J10]

Time for today's updates.

00Hz High Pressure over Northern and Western parts of the UK with lower pressure for more South and Eastern parts of the UK, for the weekend before Glastonbury. This battle continuing right up until the Saturday of the festival with a chance of showers at times but with messy synoptics.

06Hz A familiar pattern of High pressure over the UK for until next weekend, with this edging South West allowing Low Pressure to push in from the north and west and with cold north winds by the midpoint of the festival, the precipitation charts show a high likelihood of some rain or showers.

12Hz A familiar pattern of High pressure over the UK for until next weekend, however the high-pressure tending to fizzle out. Low Pressure takes its place and deepens over the UK by the Wednesday and Thursday giving a wet start to the Glastonbury festival period.

18Hz

So the pattern continuing from yesterday and no reason to change the higher than average chance of a wet festival, however nothing is set in stone and the transition to unsettled weather from the High Pressure next weekend, looks messy synopticall and the Pressure ensemble looks more promising than any of today's operational runs.

Latest Updates

18Hz from last night High Pressure over the UK the weekend before the festival, edging away to the North East, allowing low Pressure to take over across the UK for the start of the festival, with rain likely until the Friday at least.

00Hz The High Pressure never really building over the UK next week, and quickly moving away with NE winds over Eastern areas by next Saturday.

High Pressure briefly building over the UK on the first day of the festival, quickly flattening out with Westerly winds returning by the Thursday, however at this stage looking mostly dry through to the Saturday with Higher Pressure always over the south of the UK.

06Hz Similar to the 00HZ, HP not really building next week, but edging back for the start of the festival for a time, but then edging way slowly over the festival. Mostly dry weather to start, but perhaps some rain on the Sunday.

12Hz Similar to the other runs today, HP not really building next week , but unlike the others the High Pressure then not building back over the UK, and mostly staying the SW, allowing westerly winds and the chance of unsettled weather and some rain for the first few days of the festival.

18Hz These 2 pressure charts show the similarity between the weather between these time frames, and the High Pressure although never really dominant, over the UK, does keep things dry for the most part, this would indicate a dry start to the festival, and although low pressure starts to edge in from the west, again this is for the end of the festival.

A slight change in the likely weather for the festival in my mind, in that there is a better chance of it being dry for the first couple of days, and despite perhaps at the weekend perhaps being unsettled, this seems to be pushed back, and hopefully this improving trend will be continued tomorrow.

[thestixx]

Come on!!!!Lets just pray the jet stays well north, All in all things look pretty good atm. At least for a settled start anyhow.

[William of Walworth]

Thanks JACKONE for these updates. They allow for some distinct improvement towards reasonable chances of a drier/dryish ferstival as I read things.

Current chat on the general Model Output Discussion thread also seems right now to be downgrading thoughts of low pressure dominance for Glasto week, too.

As every year, fingers crossed til right near the time!

We'll be on site (being crew) from as early as next Saturday -- the earliest we've ever been. Good agreement for a pleasant start it seems, anyway. All we can pray for is this continuing ...

You have to realise that news programs love a muddy Glastonbury - it makes much more pleasing news than that everyone's having a whale of a time, and it takes very little rain for 180,000 pairs of feet to make a small muddy area appear somewhere... and the cameras come flooding.

The last two years were blissful sunny affairs, with little rain which had very little effect. They had to get trucks out spraying the paths with water to keep the dust down!

As to the other recent festivals 02 and 03 also very nice, 04 showery, 05 the flood, but otherwise glorious and if you weren't one of the few unfortunate it wasn't bad at all, 07 dreadful. Not the best record of late, but it's a loooong way from the news reports.

Correct in very respect.

In terms of recent Glastonburies, 2007 was the real shocker in mudbath terms, were you there for Mudbath One and Mudbath Two (1997 and 1998) too?

The real oldsters talk with horror of 1985 as well, but I was doing my finals that year (ahem!) and missed it, my mates' truck got buried in mud up to the axles though. With me being an idiot, their nightmare stories put me off going back til 1994 (very pleasant)

But I missed several late eighties/early nineties Glasto scorchers in consequence, those were the full on half legal party party party years by most accounts, too ... if I could go back in time I'd definitely go to 1986, 1987, 1989, 1990, 1992 and 1993 (not 1985 though!)

My dream, still just about possible, is of a thoroughly High Pressure dominated 1995 like affair this time. I haven't quite ruled it out yet ... but hopecasting is my middle name round here admittedly

Edited June 12, 2010 by William of Walworth

[dancing daisy]

No snow, but I am back as I can now geek out over Glastonbury weather.

Hello all, how is everyone?

Back to the topic...

Ummm, I have a feeling that it is going to be a m***y one, and I cannot shake it off. In regard to WoW's & Frostypaws posts, 2007 was awful! I swore I was never going back to that hell hole ever again, of course I did.

We do not want a repeat of that year, that's for sure, and the charts seem to suggest that we won't be having that constant 'wet' rain. Yes, that is a technical term.

Edited June 12, 2010 by dancing daisy

[Rob]

what was the weather like last year, i can't remeber, i'm guessing wet going by tradition!

[dancing daisy]

It was lovely, perfect festival weather. We had thunder and rain on the Thursday night but the site had dried out by Saturday morning and it was perfect sitting on the grass & drinking cider weather, I think, if my festival addled brain serves me correctly.

As Frostypaw correctly said, the news teams love the whole muddy festival thing and I believe purposely search for the one bit of mud on the site and report from there. I have been a lot and there are only 2 'bad' festivals that spring to mind, 1998 & 2007. Even the massive storm of 2005/6 ? wasn't that bad, yes there was flooding, yes it was very muddy, but by the Sunday everyone was sat on the hard dry mud having a fabulous time.

Edited June 12, 2010 by dancing daisy

[Zane]

Even the massive storm of 2005/6 ? wasn't that bad, yes there was flooding, yes it was very muddy, but by the Sunday everyone was sat on the hard dry mud having a fabulous time.

The 2005 storm that caused the big floods was combined with warm temperatures, I remember going to the long drops on Friday morning during the big thunderstorm with just a big waterproof coat and sitting there naked while the rain drenched me (sorry for the image conjured there!).

2007 was just constant steady drizzle and not too warm, definitely the reason for the lack of fast ticket sales in 2008!

Its gorgous here today btw :-)

[frostypaw]

I have to admit some weather-part of me is hugely glad I was there for the '05 storm, though sad I slept through it's worst. That was a truly awesome weather event and with how the site is laid out you could clearly see the storm rolling around the basin, the rainfall was a sight to behold and the subsequent river past our tent real testament to the power of the weather.

But I'd not repeat it cheers seems extremely unlikely - a 1-100 years storm for anywhere, even lower probability it happens then and there.

'07 was like November in July. It need not be spoken of really, none of that thanks.

Only started going in '03 though so missed the previous two mudbaths of '97 and '98 but they are infamous. For now I'm staying optimistic - it's looking alright can never really tell this far out but the ensembles support something friendly at least with the whole festival period now in the un-reliable timeframe

[William of Walworth]

I'm fairly optimistic now too, just praying that current talk in Model Output discussion of a High Pressure influenced improving trend for festival week gets maintained into the coming week's updates. By mid to late week we should be able to talk of reliable timeframes too. Ulp!

[J10]

The next update blog will be tomorrow, due to PC problems.

Sorry about this.

[Neil the Macc lad]

I was beginning to think you didn't work weekends!

[Fussy Onion]

After reading this forum for a while, just thought it was about time I said thank you for the work you do here - it is much appreciated. We can't change the weather but by reading this forum we can certainly be more prepared for it.

But if I could have a wish list, top of it would be like frostypaw already mentioned and to not have a repeat of 2007. A simply offensive year weather wise at Glastonbury.

[J10]

Here is my latest look at the Glastonbury festival firstly by looking at the GFS over the weekend.

Saturday 00Hz - High Pressure establishing itself this weekend, and this staying in charge throughout the festival period, albeit with slightly lower pressure over the far SE of the UK.

Saturday 06Hz - High Pressure establishing itself this weekend, and this high Pressure staying over or close to western parts of the UK, with the chance of slightly less settled weather for eastern parts. However staying generally dry over the UK and especially for western parts of the UK.

Saturday 12Hz - High Pressure establishing itself this weekend, and this general area of high Pressure staying over or close to western parts of the UK, with the chance of slightly less settled weather for South Eastern parts. This also gives the chance of some rain into Southern areas for the Sunday.

Saturday 18Hz - High Pressure establishing itself this week, however this not lasting through to the festival, with the High Pressure drifting away to the south west and northerly winds becoming established across the UK. However the precipiation outlook is not looking that bad, although the odd shower cannot be ruled out.

Overall, a very upbeat assessment of the Glastonbury festival from Saturday's models and on that basis, the chance of a wet festival would fall back to 40%.

Sunday 00Hz - High Pressure over the UK this weekend, slowly edges westwards with only, a ridge of HP over western areas on Wednesday. This comes and goes until the Saturday, with generally dry conditions, but turning a little bit more unsettled on the Sunday, with perhaps some rain from the north.

Sunday 06Hz - High Pressure over the UK this weekend, edges westwards, with low pressure edging across the UK by the Wednesday, with a rather unsettled festival looking most likely, perhaps dry to start, with some rain (heavy at times) over the weekend.

Sunday 12Hz - High Pressure over the UK this weekend diminishes as we move towards the festival, but ridges of HP from both the south West and North East conspire to try to keep the weather mostly settled, perhaps a risk of some rain from the SE on the Sunday.

Sunday 18Hz - High Pressure over the UK this weekend diminishes as we move towards the festival, but with Pressure tending to stay higher over western parts. However towards the weekend, perhaps low pressure edging in from the North East, with the increased chance of some rain over the weekend.

Not such good runs on Sunday, with the High Pressure looknig less dominant however still with the likelihood of a dry start to the festival, perhaps turning wet or showery over the weekend. On this basis a 45% chance of a wet festival.

Monday 00Hz - High Pressure over the UK this weekend, slowly edges westwards with winds turning round to a northerly for the start of the festival. Low Pressure to the North East, will give some rain to eastern areas, but staying drier in the west, with a probable mix of sunshine and showers, Signs also of High pressure building to the south for the weekend as well.

Monday 06Hz - High Pressure this week, but this doesn't tend to last over the UK this weekend, with already signs of this edging away, this trend continues with westerly winds for Wednesday. this likely to give some showers. Friday tuning wet as fronts edge own from the north, and then turning unsettled from the west with another front pushing in on Sunday.

Monday 12Hz - The high pressure tending to last better on this run, and lasting until the Wednesday of the festival, so a settled start on the Wednesday. Thereafter HP then edging North Eastwards, with a cold North Easterly flow setting in for the duration of the festival. However Glastonbury possible escaping the worst of the rain and showers.

ECM00HZ - High Pressure in control until Next Wednesday, but then signs of this slipping away on the Thursday, but still with High pressure hanging onto to Southern parts of the UK.

ECM12Hz - This has the High Pressure over the UK until next Tuesday, before low pressure breaking in from the west on the Thursday.

Even though, there remains the chance of weather turning less settled as we move into the weekend of the Glastonbury festival, it is better to have the better weather closer to the reliable time frame, on this basis a 45 % chance of a wet festival.

[William of Walworth]

A more than reasonable forecast (well, part from that last ECM!). I was expecting the updates generally to show markedly worse signals as it goes. Thanks!

<prays for no deterioration, or even for a few improvements! ? >

Edited June 15, 2010 by William of Walworth

[J10]

This is tonight's update, being done in conjunction with the Brazil game this evening.

GFS 00HZ The High pressure edges to the west with a weak area of low pressure edging in for next Wednesday, but then this is then replaced by Northerly winds across the rest of the festival period. This is likely to give some showers rain at times, but again with Glastonbury perhaps missing out on the worst of the rainfall.

GFS 06HZ High Pressure remains over the UK until Next Tuesday, when North Easterly wins push across much of the UK. Low Pressure remains in Scandinavia, so the worst of the weather further east, however some showers do make it to the UK, especially again for northern and Eastern areas.

GFS 12HZ the High pressure edges to the west with northerly winds for most part of the UK by the end of this weekend, By Wednesday, Low pressure edges in from the North East. Although this lingers for much of the festival, the worst of the rain always for more northern and eastern areas, so although some rain, possibly again Glastonbury escaping the worst of it.

Signs though that the GFS run is at odds with the ensembles.

ECM 00HZ High pressure for this weekend and to start next week, this gradually edging west as per the GFS but with a ridge of high pressure staying just over western areas, up until the end of the run(Friday), so mostly dry weather seemingly likely.

ECM 12HZ High pressure for this weekend and to start next week until about Tuesday, but then low pressure edges in from the west, and this looks likely to be over the UK for the first 3 days of the festival and with the chance of some quite wet weather.

In summary, a bit of a mixed bag, until the ECM 12Hz I was quite content, that although some runs were going for NE winds, this would probably be not that bad for Glastonbury in SW England, however the ECM does put a bit of a dampener on things. However I will keep my rating at 45% chance of a wet festival.

[J10]

This is tonight's update.

GFS 00Hz High pressure moves out of the way by Saturday, to give a northerly flow over the UK. However into next week, high pressure builds steadily over the UK to become dominant by the weekend. This should mean a mostly settled festival, however the odd shower cannot be ruled out .

GFS 06Hz High pressure moves out of the way by Saturday, to give a northerly flow over the UK. However into next week, high pressure tends to build once again and without it being dominant, should mean a mostly settled festival, however the odd shower cannot be ruled out.

GFS 12Hz High pressure moves out of the way by Saturday, to give a northerly flow over the UK. However into next week, a flabby high pressure tends to build once again to the North East. However this gives the opportunity of a channel low type feature moving eastwards across southern pats of the UK, giving the potential for some heavy rain on Thursday and Friday.

The GFS 12Hz is the worst of today's runs for Glastonbury's prospects but perhaps the tendency of the GFS 12HZ to be the most progressive in bringing in unsettled weather is coming to the fore once again.

ECM 00Hz The ECM tends to keep the High Pressure slightly more over the UK compared to the GFS runs of earlier for this weekend. After this it also builds the High Pressure again quickly for next week. Although not a dominant High Pressure it should keep things mostly dry and fine by Glastonbury. Although perhaps a chance of turning unsettled from the SE for the weekend.

ECM 12Hz This tends to fall more into line with GFS in terms of edging the High pressure away from the UK to the west this weekend, however it rebuilds next week to varying strengths and this should keep mostly dry and settled weather across Glastonbury for next week, although one or signs that it might turn a little more unsettled for the weekend.

A generally good summary this evening with 4 of the 5 outputs going for mostly settled conditions, with the GFS 12Hz being much worse. However on a down side, there isn't that much difference synoptically between the GFS 12Hz and the others. On his basis, I am taking a punt and deceasing the chance of a wet festival to 40%.