Chase 2010 - Day 27 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Starting today in Hays (Ks) which is within the 5% Risk zone for Tornadoes! Strong Cap looks like it will hold back Storm Initiation until late in the Day! Will need to await the Low Level Jet to kick things off - Will target the Intersection of the Fronts Tomorrow.

...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AREA...

AN UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY

ACROSS KS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL

REMAINED CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY. BEST CHANCE FOR STORM INITIATION

WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN THE

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL AUGMENT LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE

BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN KS. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS

WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

OVERNIGHT...THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROMOTE

NWD DESTABILIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

INTO NEB AND SD. A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS STORMS WILL

BECOME ELEVATED IN TIME WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

Paul S

[dallas]

Good luck today

[Arron]

Happy chasing Will keep one eye on the radar just incase

[stevestorms]

Good luck for today guys, we have really pushed the Miles, yestreday was a very long wait in 92F roasting at Murdo SD, Tstorms exploaded after 1900hrs some nice pictures stills and video got a brief touch down at Winner SD but a Lighting display that only Equals Nebraska 2004 the grim news was we booked into a Days Inn at Murdo SD and ended up down in Nebraska 150 milesaway after midnight form all our luggage -- it was a late night, anyway we are gona trundel down to North Platte for starters today.

[NL]

A few videos of yesterdays tornadoes in the Dakota's.

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=May+22%2C+2010+Several+Tornadoes+in+North+Central+SD!&aq=f

[paul - stormchase]

We're in a good position for today, so with initiation not happening until later we're off to a park to have a picnic. Will try to switch the audio on to the stream later if the connection allows it.

[gpspete]

We're in a good position for today, so with initiation not happening until later we're off to a park to have a picnic. Will try to switch the audio on to the stream later if the connection allows it.

looking at the map you are at a lake have the mosquitoes been chasing pat they seem to like the taste of him

[ian cameron]

Lol

Hi Pete

No the mozzies seem to be leaving Pat alone now and focusing on Stewart!

Lovely Here - 31c with 70f Dewpoint! Winds starting to back to the South East - Hopefully Evening Firwworks!

Ian

[gpspete]

Lol

Hi Pete

Lovely Here - 31c with 70f Dewpoint! Winds starting to back to the South East - Hopefully Evening Firwworks!

Ian

temprature seems to be similar here got to 30.2c in my garden presently only 23.5c aint bad for 21.00 dewpoint a miserly 41% rising, nearest storms of east anglia in north sea, not quite the same dont think theres much chance of monster cg's anvil crawlers odd tornado in bicester this evening, but still theres always next year

[Tom Lynch]

Lol

Hi Pete

No the mozzies seem to be leaving Pat alone now and focusing on Stewart!

Lovely Here - 31c with 70f Dewpoint! Winds starting to back to the South East - Hopefully Evening Firwworks!

Ian

Hi Ian

hope you are all ok. Lake seems pretty.

Tom

[paul - stormchase]

We're on the move - heading to intercept the cell which has fired close to dodge...

[Nick F]

Meso for likely tornado watch issued earlier for the area team's in:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0674

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0332 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN CO...WRN KS AND PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX

PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 232032Z - 232200Z

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING

HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR ERN CO...WRN KS AND PERHAPS AS FAR

SOUTH AS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED

BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z.

AT 20Z...SURFACE LOW WAS GRADUALLY DEEPENING IN CENTRAL CO AND WAS

RESULTING IN A FRONT IN WRN KS...AND DRYLINE FROM THE WRN OK

PANHANDLE SSWWD INTO FAR ERN NM...TO BEGIN SLOWLY RETREATING WNWWD.

THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD

OUT OF THE SWRN STATES AND SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS NEWD INTO

NERN CO. TUCUMCARI NM PROFILER SHOWS A 50 KT WIND MAX SHIFTING NEWD

INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH APPROACHING

UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD INCREASE THE DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL

HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.

A FEW MID-LEVEL BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR

OVER PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...THOUGH 18-20Z SOUNDINGS AT

AMA AND IN SWRN KS SHOWED A CAPPING INVERSION WAS STILL IN PLACE.

HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF ADDITIONAL HEATING COMBINED

WITH WEAK FORCING SPREADING INTO THE AREA...SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE RETREATING FRONT/DRYLINE. ONCE THESE

STORMS FORM...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MLCAPES TO 4000 J/KG...AND

GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR

SUPERCELLS. THE INITIAL THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH AS LOW

LEVEL WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING...TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

..IMY.. 05/23/2010

[gpspete]

hope you dont get in a chaser convoy like this one on the 19th

http://www.facebook.com/okstorms#!/photo.php?pid=44089484&id=9631690&fbid=810911729327

[davehsug]

We're on the move - heading to intercept the cell which has fired close to dodge...

Garden City looks like a nice place to visit :unsure:

[MAF]

thats some nasty looking stuff on the radar up ahead in Lewis

[MAF]

the rotation just doesnt want to drop

[NL]

As there's no discussion thread for todays risk i'll put it in yesterdays..

SPC are about to upgrade the outlook to a moderate risk for the Dakota's into Nebraska.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0606 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NEB AND WESTERN/CENTRAL SD TO SOUTHERN ND

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 241106Z - 241300Z

BASED ON OVERNIGHT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...THE 13Z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK

ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEB...WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD...AND

SOUTHERN ND. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE

HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL

DISCUSSION...PLEASE CONSULT THE FORTHCOMING 13Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. A

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK /PWO/ WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.