Are Others Surpised With The Current Warmth?

[damianslaw]

With temps widespread in the high 20's for many inland parts of england and wales today, some thing that hardly occured in the past three summers even, are others quite surprised like me at just how good temps currently are, under what to my eye is not an especially warm airmass.

The warmth has been very sudden and has occured on the back of sustained relatively cold conditions. We have no continental long southerly feed of air, it seems the heat is 'homwgrown' stuff, very similiar to what we saw in April 2007. It proves that when synoptics are right we can produce our own heat without the aid of the continent - its reminscent of how high pressure overhead in the depths of winter can produce some very low maxima - homegrown with no continental influence.

Can others explain the factors that are at play at the moment in terms of giving this very early seasonal heat. Would we be seeing possible mid 30's if we were under a similiar synoptic in a couple of months time?

I tend to associate high maxima with continental high pressure from europe ridging into the country or spanish plume events, not necessarily a fairly closed high pressure system overhead with no real forcing into the continent as we have at present.

[paul tall]

The dryness of the earth cannot be underestimated for its part in the high temperatures.

[Derp Patrol]

The only thing that surprises me is how northern areas in England have generally been warmer in this spell, yet 850 temps up there are not even 10C..

I am not that surpised temperature wise, generally all you need for 25C at this time of year is high pressure and no cloud. If this were to happen in a few months time, then yes I could see the temps being at least 5C higher or so..

[PersianPaladin]

Global warming.....

[Thundery wintry showers]

The dryness of the earth cannot be underestimated for its part in the high temperatures.

I agree, for instance it's well established among climatologists that this factor contributed to the exceptional heat over the continent in August 2003.

The biggest early-May heatwave in recent history- early May 1990 which was comparable to the current one, and therefore even more impressive- appeared to be largely homegrown as well judging by the synoptics, with just a slight input of hot airmasses from the S and SW.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

There is nothing (historically) unusual about the current very warm spell

[Snowyowl9]

This hot spell started with a very muggy SW air source with lots of cloud,so not really surprising it`s got warmer last 2 days,with wall to wall sun,light E/SE yesterday SE to SW wind today.

The May record is certainly safe May 1990,not quite as warm as May 2003 maxes by 0.5c

[Eugene]

There is nothing (historically) unusual about the current very warm spell

lol.....About time someone said the truth apart from me, today is the first widespread day in the midlands above 25C, it isn't unusual at all and the airmass is a very warm one with very light winds and with day length as long as July 20th now its not surprsing at all and i would actually go as far to say even a few months wouldnt make much difference to the maximums probably only a degree or two higher, solar input would be the same and sea temps wouldnt make that much difference in this kind of setup.

What i find very surprising is people think 30C is likely tomorrow, well i think its very unlikely as we start to lose this very warm air as its pushed southwards into france, GFS 12Z agrees with temps a degree or two below those today so even if temps are slightly higher than it says it won't be 30C.

[Eugene]

I'm very surprised by the persistence of northerly blocking, GFS 12Z has it right out to the end with no end in sight,i would be very surprised to see it last that long, it must be unprecedented if it comes off like that.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

[Optimus Prime]

Mean temperatures here have been around 16.0c for the last few days....certainly not close to exceptional to what we've had in May before comparibly. For northern areas it has been notable.

[Milhouse]

Assuming somewhere reached 29c today (Norwich i believe) then it would be only the 3rd May since 1990 where 29c or more has been achieved.

[SP1986]

Its just another 3 day warm spell that the UK is renouned for.

[Kentish Kiwi]

Its just another 3 day warm spell that the UK is renouned for.

Although what you are saying is usually truthful, I'm not sure I've seen a positive post from you in some time and it is rather annoying, although to be honest it might just be that your simply telling me what I don't want to hear in regards to the northerly set-up, even if it is the most overwhelmingly likely outcome. Still I'm sure you could be more positive (or put a positive twist on things) if you put the effort in...

Aaannddd back on topic, I've personally been quite surprised by the current warm spell, having missed out on all of April and the associated warmth in New Zealand for a month (extended from two weeks due to the ash) and not having felt warmth at home in the UK since September which is quite different to experiencing heat abroad. Although that said, the warmth hasn't really been a 'shock to the system' like it may have been for many others, because it was considerably warmer in NZ anyway, so I've been adjusted for spring/summer warmth since then.

[Eugene]

Where the hell are BBC getting 30C for tomorrow in London, even there own faxes dont indicate that with a cool front moving down the country, yes it doesn't reach the far south until the end of the day but i would be astounded if 30C is reached on the british mainland tomorrow, i think the heat has gone to their head

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

[Geordiesnow]

Isolated 30C is certainly possible as the heat remains in the South for much of the day and there should not be any easterly wind so i would not be surprised too see 30C being reached.

Thw only thing i am surprised by this warm/hot spell is how windy it has not become around here, its more than welcomed though.

[Kentish Kiwi]

Where the hell are BBC getting 30C for tomorrow in London, even there own faxes dont indicate that with a cool front moving down the country, yes it doesn't reach the far south until the end of the day but i would be astounded if 30C is reached on the british mainland tomorrow, i think the heat has gone to their head

http://www.wetterzen...pics/brack0.gif

http://www.wetterzen...ics/brack0a.gif

Which is even more odd, considering that in my experience the BBC/MetO usually underplay temperatures in their forecasts, there must surely be a reason for such them to make such a call?

[SP1986]

Although what you are saying is usually truthful, I'm not sure I've seen a positive post from you in some time and it is rather annoying, although to be honest it might just be that your simply telling me what I don't want to hear in regards to the northerly set-up, even if it is the most overwhelmingly likely outcome. Still I'm sure you could be more positive (or put a positive twist on things) if you put the effort in...

At the end of the day lets be honest why should I lie about the outlook or what have you, if I see a prolonged warm spell i'll say so, I'll be happy enough, personally.

As for this all I'm saying is that the current spell is nothing exceptional, if I'd have come out and said 'This was an exceptional warm spell I can't believe it's happened', well thats just frankly ridiculous. As I said the other day for me it's just how I interpret things it's not about positivity or negativity. If you want to know what I thought of this warm spell well it was thoroughly enjoyable, I loved every minute of it, and can only hope we get more of the same this summer, but it's not really about what my personal tastes are - everyone has an opinion on what will happen, mine is just not to everyones liking, and perhaps too much straight to the point for anyones liking.

[Optimus Prime]

I agree SP. You and TWS tend to say what it really is, so does The Pit. Some people don't seem to realise this is a very short blip in an otherwise cool pattern. Very much a 40s pattern.

[Snowyowl9]

It actually is one of the hottest May days I`ve recorded,it equaled 2003 highest 2 day maxes of 23c on the old reading afterall,Made 26c really.

May 1990 was 24c which was I quoted then very hot for May,so today was certainly hot to say the least and now a cooling NE breeze.

Still London had 31.9c in 2005 unofficial

[mushymanrob]

With temps widespread in the high 20's for many inland parts of england and wales today, some thing that hardly occured in the past three summers even, are others quite surprised like me at just how good temps currently are, under what to my eye is not an especially warm airmass.

The warmth has been very sudden and has occured on the back of sustained relatively cold conditions. We have no continental long southerly feed of air, it seems the heat is 'homwgrown' stuff, very similiar to what we saw in April 2007. It proves that when synoptics are right we can produce our own heat without the aid of the continent - its reminscent of how high pressure overhead in the depths of winter can produce some very low maxima - homegrown with no continental influence.

Can others explain the factors that are at play at the moment in terms of giving this very early seasonal heat. Would we be seeing possible mid 30's if we were under a similiar synoptic in a couple of months time?

I tend to associate high maxima with continental high pressure from europe ridging into the country or spanish plume events, not necessarily a fairly closed high pressure system overhead with no real forcing into the continent as we have at present.

i was thinking the very same this earlier today

it struck me that we reached 29c in May without that draw of southerly continental air. im certain this hasnt happend in the 70's, 80's or 90's and the only way we got 25c+ in May was by hot continental air being drawn up.

so im surprised that we acheived such high temps under current synoptics.

[SP1986]

It seems as someone said in another thread, the dry ground may be partly responsible, and having felt the soil today I can see why, it was scorching, I had to remove my hand. The surface ground temperature under the sun must have been around 60-70C

[Lynxus]

Apparently it hit 31.8 here.

http://wx.species5618.net/today.htm

I cant say how that was recorded or if that was direct sunlight temp or what as its not my station.

However i would a thought they had it setup fairly correct

On another note: Dont we have a fairly active sun at the moment?

[mushymanrob]

There is nothing (historically) unusual about the current very warm spell

id suggest that it IS without a continental airflow.

[Snowyowl9]

Little difference in upper air to today with 2003(reached 29.1c in london)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00220030531.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn062.png

[Optimus Prime]

id suggest that it IS without a continental airflow.

Of course it's from the continent, what a silly statement. We've had unusual ammounts of dust here from the Sahara settling on cars....I class that as being continental!