Are Others Surpised With The Current Warmth?

[mushymanrob]

Of course it's from the continent, what a silly statement. We've had unusual ammounts of dust here from the Sahara settling on cars....I class that as being continental!

erm... no it isnt! theres been NO deep rooted southerly breeze off the sahara, havnt you been viewing the charts? the crystal clear blue skies and quite low humidity are also indicators that we are not under continental air which notoriously leads to milky skies and very high humidity... sahara air is red in colour as is the dust. at no time has any run shown a deep southerly with only short rooted local ones at best circulating the centre of a small high which was a ridge extension of the azores high

id also point out that the first post of this thread pointed out that

"With temps widespread in the high 20's for many inland parts of england and wales today, some thing that hardly occured in the past three summers even, are others quite surprised like me at just how good temps currently are, under what to my eye is not an especially warm airmass.

The warmth has been very sudden and has occured on the back of sustained relatively cold conditions. We have no continental long southerly feed of air, it seems the heat is 'homwgrown' stuff, very similiar to what we saw in April 2007. It proves that when synoptics are right we can produce our own heat without the aid of the continent - its reminscent of how high pressure overhead in the depths of winter can produce some very low maxima - homegrown with no continental influence.

Can others explain the factors that are at play at the moment in terms of giving this very early seasonal heat. Would we be seeing possible mid 30's if we were under a similiar synoptic in a couple of months time?

I tend to associate high maxima with continental high pressure from europe ridging into the country or spanish plume events, not necessarily a fairly closed high pressure system overhead with no real forcing into the continent as we have at present.

.. id suggest the dust on you car is from good old dry dusty blighty.

i think your the one with the 'silly post'

Edited May 23, 2010 by mushymanrob

[conor123]

The fact that temperature's across many parts of the UK hadn't been above 20c before this warm spell since last September is what made the 26-28c's more surprising.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Interesting about the reference to the low humidity (though it seems quite sticky here now) and the clear blue skies as opposed to the milky skies and humidity of a long continental feed. I had often noticed that high humidity often came with hazy skies, but hadn't realised the link to a continental feed. Is it my imagination, or do we get more hazy, humid summer weather now than in the 1980s (or is it just because I was a kid then)?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Apparently it hit 31.8 here.

http://wx.species5618.net/today.htm

I cant say how that was recorded or if that was direct sunlight temp or what as its not my station.

However i would a thought they had it setup fairly correct

On another note: Dont we have a fairly active sun at the moment?

Quite the opposite actually, the sun is unusually quiet and has been for a while.

[Optimus Prime]

It most certainly isn't homegrown warmth, we don't have one high pressure cell centred directly over us. The wind is light continental. Simple really. The sudden dust accumilation isn't from the volcano so where do you suppose it's coming from?

[johnholmes]

Perhaps it might be an idea to stop throwing unkind comments?

The facts are that its from HP which started its life, I am fairly sure, north not south of the UK. I commented a couple of days ago about low dewpoints making it feel less humid so high temperatures were more easily tolerated. Low dewpoints in the 'summer' half of the year can come off the continent but a southerly flow usually gives higher dewpoints, that has so far been notably absent. Regarding the dust I've not really been watching the charts (had no pc for nearly 3 weeks) so I'm unsure of what the upper level winds have been over the past few days. However, looking at data I collect for comments about the longer range weather predictions, I note that both on 2 May and 3 days ago, that the upper wind forecasts were nearly all suggesting a flow from n of w not s of w, so it would appear the dust may well be from the Iceland area, possibly not directly but its been over/west of the UK for some time and recirculating. To be sure of course it needs someone with access to a research facility to prove whether its Iceland or the Sahara?

Hope that attempt at constructive comment is of some value to the forum.

[Optimus Prime]

Mmm I'm guessing the winds are originating from thaat region and blowing over the atlantic back over us.

[mushymanrob]

It most certainly isn't homegrown warmth, we don't have one high pressure cell centred directly over us. The wind is light continental. Simple really. The sudden dust accumilation isn't from the volcano so where do you suppose it's coming from?

this warm weather came by the high over to our northwest sinking towards the azores, linking with it, then ridging up over us. the centre was to our south west but a shallow centre built over us. at no time have we had a deep seated southerly off the sahara, or even central france. the upper drift is atm northerly, just see the fax or any chart.... the uk has had very little rain for most for weeks. the ground is bone dry and the majority of dust is local. pressure is high, this is totally homegrown warmth and thats why this hot spell is unusual as the op stated.

please feel free to post any archived chart showing theres been a deep rooted southerly off the sahara within the last few days, because it simply isnt the case.

[summer blizzard]

The reason for the warmth in my opinion is actually the high pressures origin, the Azores, which also explains why it was so humid until Friday when we started to see a light continental feed from France, so we have the heat from the Azores, and the clear skies from the Continent on top of moderate upper air temperatures.

In answer to the beggining of the thread, temperatures would have been around 5C higher if we saw the exaxct same conditions during July.

this warm weather came by the high over to our northwest sinking towards the azores, linking with it, then ridging up over us. the centre was to our south west but a shallow centre built over us. at no time have we had a deep seated southerly off the sahara, or even central france. the upper drift is atm northerly, just see the fax or any chart.... the uk has had very little rain for most for weeks. the ground is bone dry and the majority of dust is local. pressure is high, this is totally homegrown warmth and thats why this hot spell is unusual as the op stated.

please feel free to post any archived chart showing theres been a deep rooted southerly off the sahara within the last few days, because it simply isnt the case.

I don't think that the upper drift is northerly, more westerly due to the highest thicknesses being over the south west of the UK, though the dry ground does play its part, so a little homegrown but there is both a continental and tropical influence.

[Optimus Prime]

Mushy...the dust isn't local. It's extensive and golden in color. It hasn't originated from this country. It could be from Mars...does the Azores high stretch that far?

[mushymanrob]

Mushy...the dust isn't local. It's extensive and golden in color. It hasn't originated from this country. It could be from Mars...does the Azores high stretch that far?

please show me 1, just 1 chart that has a deep routed southerly off the sahara and ill give you my house! :unsure: ive been watching the charts daily and theres been NO such wind direction, either upper or asl. i dont know where YOUR dust comes from, mines local, but it sure as hell hasnt come off the sahara!

do you remember May 1970?... that had a classic case of sahara dust... the sky was red, so red you could look at the sun! it was like a fog, it was hot and humid too. ok that was an extreme case but still...

I don't think that the upper drift is northerly, more westerly due to the highest thicknesses being over the south west of the UK, though the dry ground does play its part, so a little homegrown but there is both a continental and tropical influence.

yes you are correct, they were northerly but swung to the west as the high pressure nudged in from the azores a few days ago. ill also conceed that there has been a little NEAR continental air for some areas, normandy, low countries perhaps, but that came initially off the northerly of last week, then the westerly as pressure rose. it has not come off africa!

[conor123]

Well on Friday Night the moon was a blood red colour almost around Midnight and as it set in the hazyness.

What's most surprising for me is that many areas that have recorded some of the highest temperatures over the weekend have been over higher ground particulary in Northern England and North Wales which is even stranger considering the fact that in setups similar with higher Upper Air's temperatures temperature's have often not been so high even on sunny days over the higher ground.

[mushymanrob]

Well on Friday Night the moon was a blood red colour almost around Midnight and as it set in the hazyness.

thats normal.

[Marcus_surfer]

This is the type of weather i have got used to in the UK, one day the weather can be warm and sunny, the next cold and rainy. The weather has been beautiful over the last few days, but it's back to cooler windy weather by the middle of the week.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Was a little surprised by this current warm spell having been exposed to the cooler temperatures for most of this year, and with it's lack of true Southerly or South-Westerly winds brining in warm/hot air from the South. I agree with an earlier post about the fact that very high humidity/dewpoints can be related to a Southerly wind source, and the humidity and moisture levels seemed a little more lower from this hot period that I first guessed (despite looking at the UK humidity on the GFS maps).

I think that with the winds light and variable allowed temperatures to reach to high levels, probably mostly due to the placement of the high preventing strong cool winds and extensive cloud cover, which would lower the temperatures. Clearly some areas to the North and East have been seeing some showers and storms during the last few days, making for some cooler temperatures where the cloud cover and precipitation had/has occured.

The other aspect about this current warm spell was that, because of how warm it was getting I made an estimate that some areas, specifically to the East, would reach 30*C on Sunday which is obviously much higher than the May average. Still, with official recordings of 29*C at Norwich Airport and 27.8*C at Heathrow can potentially show the warm temperatures these pressure systems deliver. However, I think what is particularly interesting about these very warm spells is that the temperature's which happened now may not get reached again for the rest of the Summer. Just like when a hot spell in April may not be beaten again for the rest of the year. In fact, there was one instance during March 1965 where this happened, with Whitby (North Yorkshire coast) being hottest day for the whole year on the 29th (according to the "Change in the Weather: Weather Extremes and the British Climate" book by Philip Eden).

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, it's very remarkable that the warmest temperature of the year happened in March at Whitby! It happened more widely in October in 1985, which is also very unusual- many parts of north-east England in particular saw 1st October, with maxima of 25C and above, as being the warmest day of that year by a fair margin (I also read this in a couple of Philip Eden sources, notably his 1995 book "Weatherwise").

As for the reports of the dust, they could be homegrown- dust & pollution sometimes forms quite readily during anticyclonic spells. There could also be remnants of the ash cloud which was polluting the skies over Norwich at the back end of last week.

[mushymanrob]

. It's extensive and golden in color. .

..... pollen? sahara dust is red.

[reef]

Yes, it's very remarkable that the warmest temperature of the year happened in March at Whitby! It happened more widely in October in 1985, which is also very unusual- many parts of north-east England in particular saw 1st October, with maxima of 25C and above, as being the warmest day of that year by a fair margin (I also read this in a couple of Philip Eden sources, notably his 1995 book "Weatherwise").

Yes, that was the case here, the 1st October was the warmest day of the year by over 2C. That day also had a min of 18.0C, notable in any month. Summer was exceptionally poor though, with a max of just 23.1C - the lowest in 28 years of records:

May-Oct Maximums in 1985:

May: 23.0C

Jun: 20.0C (the only day to reach 20C that month!)

Jul: 23.1C

Aug: 22.7C

Sep: 24.1C

Oct: 26.2C

Sort of puts recent 'bad' summers in to context really. I think people would be slitting wrists if the temperature didnt get above 23.1C from Jun to Aug nowadays!

[mushymanrob]

What i find very surprising is people think 30C is likely tomorrow, well i think its very unlikely as we start to lose this very warm air as its pushed southwards into france, GFS 12Z agrees with temps a degree or two below those today so even if temps are slightly higher than it says it won't be 30C.

you were right, it only got to 29'5c today at heathrow!

[Harry]

I really don't think this hot spell is anything out of the ordinary, just doesn't happen that often (if that makes sense)

The airmass which we have been sat under is not air typical of our latitude - it started off way down past the Canaries and got scooped up by the HP. Sufficiently loaded with some heat already and decent moisture, it then sat on top of us. The height of the sun and length of days provided more than enough energy to really heat the air up with relative ease.

The breeze however has just been given a kick off the N Sea, and all of a sudden the temperature plummets to around average values. We have just been fortunate to sit under a blanket of warm air the last few days, while now the dynamics are changing, we can see goodbye to that lovely blanket and welcome back our the airmass typical for us.

you were right, it only got to 29'5c today at heathrow!

It also reached 29.5C in C London (the guage I was using) - it was very meditteranean indeed.

IMO, never take weather charts temperature predicitons as gospel - they seldom appear to pick out UHI's well at all - if GFS for example is forecasting 26C in London and surrounding areas, 90% of the time you could safely add a further 2-3C and that'll be the finishing number.

Edited May 24, 2010 by Harry

[Upgrade]

Just a note on the dust. There was a large amount on my car on Saturday and then a larger fall this morning - quite a bit. I put my windscreen wipers on and it all blew away in a cloud of grey dust . So i guess it was from the volcano, and had been recirculated somehow.

[johnholmes]

The airmass which we have been sat under is not air typical of our latitude - it started off way down past the Canaries and got scooped up by the HP. Sufficiently loaded with some heat already and decent moisture, it then sat on top of us. The height of the sun and length of days provided more than enough energy to really heat the air up with relative ease.

IMO, never take weather charts temperature predicitons as gospel - they seldom appear to pick out UHI's well at all - if GFS for example is forecasting 26C in London and surrounding areas, 90% of the time you could safely add a further 2-3C and that'll be the finishing number.

re the first para-I've done a thread to cover that

'where did the heat come from'

as to the GFS temps, winter or summer, especially in prolonged sun, then almost all inland temps need adjusting up 2-3 C, the heat island effect can perhaps needs 5+

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

With temps widespread in the high 20's for many inland parts of england and wales today, some thing that hardly occured in the past three summers even, are others quite surprised like me at just how good temps currently are, under what to my eye is not an especially warm airmass.

No the last 3rd of May was progged to be warm driven by the solar state. The shortness of the heat will be a summer trait, a transient set up.

BFTP

[Harry]

No the last 3rd of May was progged to be warm driven by the solar state. The shortness of the heat will be a summer trait, a transient set up.

BFTP

Not so sure this year BFTP - the blocking highs have been a feature more than ever this year. I think there is a fair to decent possibility that any robust High which zips in could stay around for considerable time, like last summer in actual fact - if we remember Wimbledon, I don't recall the rain covers coming out once in the two weeks, the majority of which temperatures ranged from 25C to 32C...I think this year could well be a repeat (fingers crossed )