Convective Outlook

[Harry]

First signs of initiation over France already

[Coast]

Might be time to switch to Brest Cam!!!! www.port-aberwrach.com

[DAVID SNOW]

Might be time to switch to Brest Cam!!!! www.port-aberwrach.com

Could you post a link to Breast Cam

[ZONE 51]

im really enjoying the updates here and look fwd to the developments through the day n night

hope those on the south coast get a display tonight i think theres a good chance of this,wish i could be on the coast, if only the storms could sparkle for all wanting them

[Stormyking]

Starting to pick up a bit more in france now, still wondering how close it could get tonight still.

[Harry]

Indeed - growing increasingly painful as it goes along May take a stroll outside later this evening to see if I can see any flashing to the S and SE...such a shame, especially as today actually looks thundery - hazy, bits of Cu/Ac floating about, and feeling very warm in the sun I have to say - yes it is far less stifling than yesterday with the cool breeze, however in the sun it is notably warm and quite muggy feeling (well, either that or I have grown very unfit as a result of the Storm Chase diet, lol)

Edited May 25, 2010 by Harry

[Coast]

Getting dark in Rouen: http://ptq2.mcom.fr/

[Stormyking]

Indeed - growing increasingly painful as it goes along May take a stroll outside later this evening to see if I can see any flashing to the S and SE...such a shame, especially as today actually looks thundery - hazy, bits of Cu/Ac floating about, and feeling very warm in the sun I have to say - yes it is far less stifling than yesterday with the cool breeze, however in the sun it is notably warm and quite muggy feeling (well, either that or I have grown very unfit as a result of the Storm Chase diet, lol)

We have the same here, hazy with Cu/Ac i spose thats not a bad sign, and its really starting to kick off in france now.

[Bluebreezer54]

In staying with friends just outside Hastings for a few days, it sounds as though it may be worth the short drive up to the Firehills later this evening/tonight. French Coast is visible from there in clear weather so a fair chance of seeing some distant sparks flying perhaps ?

[Harry]

What is intriguing me somewhat, and the reason why I've shown a lot of interest to the action in France, is the potential for that moist air to reappear across the far South - running the satellite loop, it shows a fair bit of cloud pushing out of France across S England, with the lighter cloud trying to push S towards the Midlands...I'm wondering whether the muggy feel outside (I hasten to add this is a feel when out walking and not any gauge) has something to do with a bit of unexpected moisture feeding North, beating the cooler air digging in...interested to know (though not sure of the best source) the latest temperature/dew point readings along the S coast!

I hasten to add further that I am not expecting any storms which fire over France to head our way as satellite suggests these a quickly shifting East upon developing.

[Stormyking]

Well here on the IOW the temperatures are mixed between 15 and 20c

Where I am the Dew point is at 12.3c

But other places on the Isle of wight have Dew points of 13 to 14c I dont know if that is a good thing or not??

[Coast]

interested to know (though not sure of the best source) the latest temperature/dew point readings along the S coast!

Current DP is 10.0 Dgc in Eastbourne, increasing the further West you go along the coast

But other places on the Isle of wight have Dew points of 13 to 14c I dont know if that is a good thing or not??

Moisture (high dewpoints)- The more moisture available, the more latent heat that can be released once storms develop. It is important to look for moisture advection hour by hour on a day severe weather is possible. The air is more unstable in regions of dewpoint maxima.

www.theweatherprediction.com

[Stormyking]

Current DP is 10.0 Dgc in Eastbourne, increasing the further West you go along the coast

www.theweatherprediction.com

Thanks for that, the Dew points isn't that bad here atm, in newport its gone down slightly to 12.9c but is that a good dewpoint temperature or does it need to be slightly higher?

[coldfingers]

Temp still 19.6 here on the South Coast with a max of 20.4C today. Humidity though is only 64%. Does that mean we have any chance of a storm here tonight?

I am hoping to see some storms if any are about as we badly need some rain here, we have only had around half an inch in the last 7 weeks and everything is looking very dry.

[Coast]

Thanks for that, the Dew points isn't that bad here atm, in newport its gone down slightly to 12.9c but is that a good dewpoint temperature or does it need to be slightly higher?

Lots of things need to be right for storms to start and I'm afraid that many for the key factors are not in place for us today. As Harry has said, eyes South from the English coast for any action in reality.

[Stormyking]

Depends, if upper temperatures are cold enough dewpoints of around 12C coupled with good surface heating would be sufficient for some active showers or weak storms. An example scenario of where this may arise would be when we are under a rPm (Returning Polar-Maritime) airmass- where cold upper temperatures are present, but relatively warm, moist air is spread across parts of the country from the south-west, creating a few or several 100j/kg SBCAPE. Since we lack good surface heating and moisture during early spring, we really need a decent pool of cold upper air to aid good convection.

For today however, I think storms will stay over France. Though can't rule out storms overspreading southermost parts of the channel.

Okay, I too can't see the storms moving out of france but if some do drift into the channel then i might keep an eye out for some distant lightning but I doubt it, I think if this was id or late June there would be more of a chance if anyone else agrees becasue i spose by then we would get more surface heating becuase of the sun that bit stronger again.

[Harry]

From what I've learned, a good dew point to temperature spread is good to have too...general rule though, the higher the dew point the better (unless you dislike humid conditions in which case perhaps not )

I think in relation to Weather09's comment, I think what we've lacked this year (quite considerably) is moisture, hence why the last few days have felt quite unbearable for many. Normally, we have a relative moist tropical maritime air flow which tends to be relatively rich in moisture, coupled with LP systems either v close by if not slap bang on top of us. Last several months however, have seen either polar maritime (which at times isn't too bad) or polar continental, which in terms of moisture is probably as weak as it gets, coupled with the close proximity of HP a lot of the time.

I think surface heating this time of year is actually relatively rather good - we are less than a month from the longest day ALREADY! (how depressing is THAT! ) and just by stepping outside you can feel the strength of the sun and how quickly it heats up (and how quickly we get burnt, ouch!!)

ECM charts indicate a growing potential for some thundery activity, though nothing spectacular. I'm even struggling to see when within the next couple of weeks we are likely to see a plume setup (which generally brings the better and more frequent thunderstorms for many places due to richness of both heat and moisture) - at a punt I'm going to suggest that the second week of June could be very electric...watch this space

Edited May 25, 2010 by Harry

[Stormyking]

Thats another thing I forgot the humidity is quite high here and it feels humid and muggy

Our humidity is at 81% now

Thanks for reminding me about the humidity Harry Lol

[Mesoscale]

Watching sferics in NFrance at the moment closest one was about 150Mi from the south coast!!

I wish i had my car right now i had to get it scraped, im getting a new one in 2 weeks why couldnt it of waited!

Just got to keep on wishing!

Edit: the closest strike was within 60 miles of the south coast! :D!

Edited May 25, 2010 by Mesodiscussion

[ZONE 51]

latest sat (just wishing)

[Paul -UK-]

Some radars are showing some lightning over SE at the moment. Im looking at http://www.severe-weather.co.uk/ which has various radars.

[ZONE 51]

live lightning

[wchris_uk]

Some radars are showing some lightning over SE at the moment. Im looking at http://www.severe-weather.co.uk/ which has various radars.

where i am its clouding over and the wind seems to of picked up abit.

[Fitzwis]

latest sat (just wishing)

Looking good for us then ... temp. currently 24.1C at Jersey Airport and very humid ... here's hoping for some storm action this evening

In fact, just been outside and one of the anvils from that sat pic is encroaching, albeit slowly, from my SW and is right on top of us

Edited May 25, 2010 by Fitzwis

[Harry]

Think we might be getting a little over excited over relatively little, lol! Though the threat of storms being so (relatively) close does make the mouth water some what B)

Humidity is definitely up despite the cool breeze really trying to dig in (well, it felt it earlier anyway)

Can see high cloud streaming in here now from the S and W - the moisture is certainly not too far away, at upper altitudes anyway, and I am increasingly hopeful of seeing some distant flashes to the southern skyline later (presuming new storms fire as the existing ones will be too far East by later)