Convective Outlook

[Stormyking]

Urm we got AcCas clouds under this milky kinda sky with it being darker over the sea.

[Paul -UK-]

Love the long line on this radar http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=lightning

[Guest FireStorm]

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/ ATD with a few sferics in the English Channel but my favourite is the I.O.W lightning page http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm under strike density

[Paul -UK-]

Don't know if this one is accurate http://www.malvernwx.co.uk/lightning_data/lightning.htm very interesting

[Mesoscale]

Don't know if this one is accurate http://www.malvernwx...a/lightning.htm very interesting

Deffinitly not accurate as i would of heard thunder by now!

just some broken cloud floating about with it being a little darker to the south/southwest.

[Paul -UK-]

Thats what I thought, just wishful thinking I guess LOL

[Mesoscale]

haha yeah i know what you mean, as soon as I looked at the site i jumped off my chair and rushed out side only to see a few clouds lol!

Someday soon i hope though... some day soon!

[A.J]

A couple of storms have blown up over the Brest Peninsular..Looks like they're trying their best to cross the channel towards the south coast

[Harry]

A couple of storms have blown up over the Brest Peninsular..Looks like they're trying their best to cross the channel towards the south coast

Indeed - as the low sweeps in it'll prob carry them towards to the W, if the Channel doesn't kill them first

[Nick F]

Have issued a storm forecast for the risk of an isolated elevated storm somewhere along the south coast tonight/tomorrow morning.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Current upper steering winds at 500mb would suggest a few storms or heavy showers may reach the south coast, though as they cross over on to the cool/dry northern side of the front straddling E-W across W Channel into Paris Basin - they may wane/die out:

[Mesoscale]

Have issued a storm forecast for the risk of an isolated elevated storm somewhere along the south coast tonight/tomorrow morning.

http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

Current upper steering winds at 500mb would suggest a few storms or heavy showers may reach the south coast, though as they cross over on to the cool/dry northern side of the front straddling E-W across W Channel into Paris Basin - they may wane/die out:

I hope so nick, I really do but the area doesnt quite reach where i live but i could probably see the lightning from them.

[Nick F]

Lonesome cell over eastern English Channel has also produced sferics on Atd, and it ain't anaprop either as its moving ENE on the loop:

At least shows some mid-level instability across the Channel tonight which may aid the odd isolated storm develop along southern coastal areas tonight/morning.

Area of storms/showers across northern Brittany coast/Channel Isles seems to be trying to form an MCS, increasing SWerly upper winds maybe supportive of this, but not moving fast NEwards!

[Harry]

Our mate Rob McElwee (that man is God IMO lol) said there is a risk of some more substantial rain across Southern and Southeastern England later tonight and into the morning period...certainly not bothering to wait up for it but it might be nice to hear some heavy rain in the morning (have to say its been a while)

[coldfingers]

Have issued a storm forecast for the risk of an isolated elevated storm somewhere along the south coast tonight/tomorrow morning.

http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

Current upper steering winds at 500mb would suggest a few storms or heavy showers may reach the south coast, though as they cross over on to the cool/dry northern side of the front straddling E-W across W Channel into Paris Basin - they may wane/die out:

Could this be why the netweather local forecast have torrential rain forecast for my area? Would really love a storm. Don't get so many here as when I lived in Windsor.

[Bluebreezer54]

Well I just spent an hour sitting on the clifftop near Hastings where I could see the lights of buildings on the French Coast but not one solitary flash of lightning :-(

[coldfingers]

Have issued a storm forecast for the risk of an isolated elevated storm somewhere along the south coast tonight/tomorrow morning.

http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

Current upper steering winds at 500mb would suggest a few storms or heavy showers may reach the south coast, though as they cross over on to the cool/dry northern side of the front straddling E-W across W Channel into Paris Basin - they may wane/die out:

Could this be why the netweather local forecast have torrential rain forecast for my area tomorrow? Would really love a storm. Don't get so many here as when I lived in Windsor.

Edited May 25, 2010 by coldfingers

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

There is no forecast of 'torrential rain'. There are indications of some outbreaks of rain arriving on the south coast and perhaps a chance of a rumble of thunder but nothing much more than that.

Edited May 25, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Nick F]

Could this be why the netweather local forecast have torrential rain forecast for my area tomorrow? Would really love a storm. Don't get so many here as when I lived in Windsor.

18z GFS shows potential for more general heavy rain moving up across the SE tomorrow, before clearing in the evening:

Wouldn't be surprised if there was a few thundery showers before then in the morning across the far south.

[shuggee]

Could this be why the netweather local forecast have torrential rain forecast for my area tomorrow? Would really love a storm. Don't get so many here as when I lived in Windsor.

Would appear so coldfingers. However, the 18z has just updated the forecast system, and the midday rainfall has eased back a little from the earlier 'torrential' that you were referring to, to merely 'heavy':

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=2;type=free;ct=3468~Bognor;sess=#forecast

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Could this be why the netweather local forecast have torrential rain forecast for my area tomorrow? Would really love a storm. Don't get so many here as when I lived in Windsor.

Apologies - didn't mean to sound so curt - I used to get excited about these things too (before I got too old and boring!)

Some rain would be welcome for my garden too - so perhaps bring something (within reason) on!

I think that the mass that is gathering near Cherbourg is what will come close to the south coast later tonight and tomorrow morning. On a layperson basis I noticed that the upper clouds were steering much more west of south earlier this evening before it got dark and that is a factor in terms of the distribution of the thundery/convective potential. In a more traditional plume pattern, with high pressure to the east and low pressure to the south west then the steering winds are much more southerly and better for those wanting to see storms. These can be imported from France and the continent for those on the coast but also that sort of pattern tends to encourage storms to develop homegrown inland as well.

Edited May 25, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Stormyking]

I too wouldn't be suprised if a rumble or 2 of thunder was heard but I think tomorrow will be just generaly heavy rain mainly across SE as have already been said.

Maybe late June can deliver I would be very happy indeed if we had a similar repeat of June 25th last year which braught storms to us from the SE

[coldfingers]

Would appear so coldfingers. However, the 18z has just updated the forecast system, and the midday rainfall has eased back a little from the earlier 'torrential' that you were referring to, to merely 'heavy':

http://www.netweathe...;sess=#forecast

Many thanks for the update shuggie, I wouldn't have checked and would have been disappointed. Well, still am actually. I do love a bit of excitement in the weather.

Apologies - didn't mean to sound so curt - I used to get excited about these things too (before I got too old and boring!)

Some rain would be welcome for my garden too - so perhaps bring something (within reason) on!

No worries, I just checked back and of course shuggie had pointed out how things had moved on. Sad really. I don't know who wants rain more, me or my garden.

Besides I reckon I could beat you at the 'old and boring' stakes. :lol: Must be so, I love gardening.

I too wouldn't be suprised if a rumble or 2 of thunder was heard but I think tomorrow will be just generaly heavy rain mainly across SE as have already been said.

Maybe late June can deliver I would be very happy indeed if we had a similar repeat of June 25th last year which braught storms to us from the SE

Ah to be 17 again and remember dates like that! Rarely get the violent storms down here that we had in the Thames valley but still we get lots of gales as compensation eh?

Hmmm, Shipping forecast is giving a F7 and thundery rain for Wight.

Edited May 25, 2010 by coldfingers

[Stormyking]

Many thanks for the update shuggie, I wouldn't have checked and would have been disappointed. Well, still am actually. I do love a bit of excitement in the weather.

No worries, I just checked back and of course shuggie had pointed out how things had moved on. Sad really. I don't know who wants rain more, me or my garden.

Besides I reckon I could beat you at the 'old and boring' stakes. Must be so, I love gardening.

Ah to be 17 again and remember dates like that! Rarely get the violent storms down here that we had in the Thames valley but still we get lots of gales as compensation eh?

Well since 2007 it hasn't really been great, but 2006 and other years before we were quite common for violent thunderstorms on the IOW though last year was an improvement, and this year we already got off to a good start in march.

Don't know what it is sometimes about the IOW but it is a strange place for weather here but I spose thats why i love it hear so much about the weather here too.

I do know what you mean by the gales i remember in november the needles which is west of Isle of wight recorded 100mph winds while on my side of the Island In sandow which is east was a expericencing some kind of supercell with 80mph winds, cracking thunder and lightning with a reported tornado from a few friends to the NE of the IOW oh and I forgot about the hail which was crazily heavy hehe.

Sorry about my punchuality however you spell it and spelling

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

No worries, I just checked back and of course shuggie had pointed out how things had moved on. Sad really. I don't know who wants rain more, me or my garden.

Besides I reckon I could beat you at the 'old and boring' stakes. Must be so, I love gardening.

Gardening? Yup - me too!

Destination Sussex/Kent methinks, for a little while anyway, of a bit of that mass on the radar - so a watering is a reasonable proposition tomorrow morning before it pulls away SE into the continent

Edited May 25, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Nick F]

Cells seem to be expanding west across east English Channel - maybe along E-W frontal boundary, might produce a few flashes out over the Channel from the E Sussex/S Kent coast: