Convective Outlook

[gpspete]

Thats for the day after I land back in good ol blighty! Will be bringing the Cape back with me across the Atlantic!

Come On Goofus dont let us down!

Paul S

High Paul,

looking at those charts is there any way you can make the Barons work in uk if you manage it i will chase with you

Pete

[ANYWEATHER]

Well all a long way off, but the Ecm does show some thundery potential in about a weeks time with very warm air being dragged from the south and an unstable airmass approaching from the west ....Lovely.....

[Alex95]

Very impressive looking downpour rolling in now

[Harry]

Not THE most ideal chart IMO as the area of HP is too close - unless a surface low develops over France it might not be success...however I completely agree, that's probably the most thundery looking chart we've had for months, of which if it didnt produce storms, would certainly bring us another hot and much more humid spell...

Loving that Estofex chart btw - did that take you long?

Looking at the present, it's a shame that both the HP is trying to ridge in and the sun wasn't out for a bit longer today - once the sun came out we had some pretty nice looking convection going on, with some nice looking towers - until they got that little bit higher and got whacked on the head by Timmy's Mallet!!

Edited May 27, 2010 by Harry

[Jane Louise]

haha take alook at my ideal forecast for storms its not real so dont get too excited lmao!

:lol:If only, If only that were true LOL

[Mesoscale]

If only ay you never know though it could happen this year could be are year!

It took me about 10 mins in all, the worst part about it was getting the severe areas looking right but overall it was a pretty easy thing to do as i do alot of graphical work. I just took a pretty empty chart from the estofex archives copied the colours from the numbers and drew around the areas where i wanted the different warnings, then copied and pasted the numbers and the thunderstorm symbol where i wanted and then set the transparency colour to black (this makes the black areas invisible) and that way only the symbols where left, finally I flattend the whole thing as the symbols where on a different layer to the background chart.

Coming back to reality, lets hope that next weeks chart is correct and we do indeed get atleast some thundery downpours.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

:lol:If only, If only that were true LOL

I know it was just for fun Jane - but be very careful what you wish for. lol!

It would be bad enough in the huge open spaces of the mid west but on our tiny island it doesn't bear thinking about!

Edited May 27, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Jane Louise]

I know it was just for fun Jane - but be very careful what you wish for. lol!

It would be bad enough in the huge open spaces of the mid west but on our tiny island it doesn't bear thinking about!

I think it would be a tad scary if that came about LOL ...

I will definitely be cautious about wishing for those type of Storms lol :lol:

If only ay you never know though it could happen this year could be are year!

It took me about 10 mins in all, the worst part about it was getting the severe areas looking right but overall it was a pretty easy thing to do as i do alot of graphical work. I just took a pretty empty chart from the estofex archives copied the colours from the numbers and drew around the areas where i wanted the different warnings, then copied and pasted the numbers and the thunderstorm symbol where i wanted and then set the transparency colour to black (this makes the black areas invisible) and that way only the symbols where left, finally I flattend the whole thing as the symbols where on a different layer to the background chart.

Coming back to reality, lets hope that next weeks chart is correct and we do indeed get atleast some thundery downpours.

A very good Chart I must say LOL

Yes, let's hope we get some thunder next week it's been sooo long.

[pottyprof]

Coming back to reality, lets hope that next weeks chart is correct and we do indeed get atleast some thundery downpours.

Lets hope not. We could do with some steady rain before any heavy thundery stuff.

[Nick F]

Something to keep an eye, given that both ECMWF and GFS have been hinting at a significant change in the synoptic outlook which would favour deep convection and thunderstorms.

Shame the potential is not in the reliable timeframe yet, but we can live in hope! 00z GFS looked abysmal for convective potential, hopefully 06z will be an improvement.

[Stuart]

hope we see that comeing in to reliable timeframe soon

[Harry]

Thundery breakdown! That's a start I suppose :lol:

[TornadoJo]

Hey All,

If that really happens then me n my lil car storm will be off on a road trip - who's with me?!

xxx

[Stuart]

well cant see much in the way of Thundery breakdown in this run

[Coast]

All a bit too far away for me to get over excited yet - but trust me, if it happens, I will be excited!!

[Stuart]

but still long way off yet

not seen one yet this year banging my head off the walls so far

Edited May 28, 2010 by Stuart

[Harry]

Let's just hope that when it does decide to throw us a plume is a damn good'un and not a 'misfire' as I like to call them - chiefly ones where by the richest moisture swerves off towards Benelux!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Lets hope not. We could do with some steady rain before any heavy thundery stuff.

Just out of interest... why?

We do need rain in many places and steady rain is more efficient for infiltration but I don't see why heavy thundery stuff would be particularly bad prior to the next steady rain.

Plus there's plenty of steady rain forecast for tomorrow.

[Noctilucid]

I don't see why heavy thundery stuff would be particularly bad prior to the next steady rain.

Because not everybody is lucky enough to find themselves under a storm I suppose.

Edited May 28, 2010 by jshaw

[Mesoscale]

quite alot of convection here right now some really dark clouds to my south/southeast i can see the top shooting up. looks a bit small for thunder atm but you never know hopefully!

Theres two Cbs just floating by!

Edited May 28, 2010 by Mesodiscussion

[Costa Del Fal]

A low risk of some thunder is suppose in any sharp showers that follow the front tomorrow for SW England, Wales and the West Midlands.

I must stress its a low risk but there is a little risk but nothing to get excited about.

[pottyprof]

Just out of interest... why?

The ground is like concrete in many places. Can you imagine the run off? We need something to soften the ground. A little steady rain between now and any stormy weather would help alleviate the problem a little...

[Costa Del Fal]

Showers look more prevalent further south and west from the west Midlands. Poor mid-level lapse rates and very little instability post-frontal airmass should inhibit decent convection and electrical activity. Am actually looking forward to seeing some decent rainfall, given this lengthy dry spell we have been experiencing.

Exactly, conditions are poor but cant rule out the odd rumble still in the heavier showers perhaps. Who knows but it might be interesting to see some heavy rain for a change if we get it.

[NUT]

Anybody fancy a trip to central europe at +372?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn37211.png

(I know it won't happen but still)

Where I been last 48 hours (Yesterday I was at m and d's theme park in wishaw I think and the day before dumbarton) There's been a lot of heavy showers sometimes pretty torrential and even some hailstones. Been a fairly lively time up here although localised.

Edited May 29, 2010 by NUT

[Stuart]

I wonder if i get some thunder from that rain comeing down from the north 2night