June CET

[BornFromTheVoid]

Ah right, thanks!

I reckon there might be a few mins below 10C over the coming days which should helps things drop a little. CET maxes look like staying below 20C as well.

[Milhouse]

I'm beginning to wish i'd gone with the same gues i made on TWO of 15.6c. 14.9c at this stage is looking a bit on the low side with things set to turn a lot warmer by day next week. Although for obvious reasons i want my other guess of 15.6c to be nearer the mark.

[Gavin P]

Today probably won't drop that much given that last night came in at 12.6C for the minimum.

Looks like some falls to about mid month - not sure we will go under 15C however.

Ensemble data points to the period after mid month being above average.

Sub 14C or even sub 14.5C guesses need a pretty dramatic turnaround from the model output on offer currently.

FWIW, I think my 15.3C punt maybe on the low side.

Looking like June will be our first appreciably above average month of 2010. Question is, will this be a one off in an otherwise cool year? Or are we on the verge of getting a new string of very above average months?

[Don]

Looking like June will be our first appreciably above average month of 2010. Question is, will this be a one off in an otherwise cool year? Or are we on the verge of getting a new string of very above average months?

It does indeed. Hopefully it will just be a blip like last year with April and November both being very warm months in an otherwise fairly average year overall. Needless to say I have liked this cooler period we have been experiencing lately!

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.3 to the 10th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_min.html

Yesterday came in at 14.3C.

Minimum for today is down as 9.1 so providing a CET max today of around 18.0C, we could be down to 15.1C for tomorrow.

[Kentish Kiwi]

It does indeed. Hopefully it will just be a blip like last year with April and November both being very warm months in an otherwise fairly average year overall. Needless to say I have liked this cooler period we have been experiencing lately!

Not hopefully in my opinion, and many others for that matter. Although it is just opinion and as you stated you do prefer cooler weather.

I mean, come on though, we've just gone through the coldest winter for 30 years and a below average Spring, with the coolest May since 1996 and you hope that June is just a warm blip? It would be pretty depressing if the rest of the summer continued average/cool after June, especially if the winter is going to follow suit from the last (not saying it will, just if). The window for good, warm weather is so narrow in this country as it is...

Edited June 11, 2010 by Kentish Kiwi

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.2C to the 11th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at 13.9C.

Todays min is down as 10.2, a CET max for today of anything under 19.8C should drop us to 15.1C by tomorrow.

[Don]

Not hopefully in my opinion, and many others for that matter. Although it is just opinion and as you stated you do prefer cooler weather.

I mean, come on though, we've just gone through the coldest winter for 30 years and a below average Spring, with the coolest May since 1996 and you hope that June is just a warm blip? It would be pretty depressing if the rest of the summer continued average/cool after June, especially if the winter is going to follow suit from the last (not saying it will, just if). The window for good, warm weather is so narrow in this country as it is...

I appreciate that we did have a very cold Winter, although the Spring wasn't particularly cold overall with a dry and above average April. I agree that it would certainly be depressing if the rest of Summer was cool and wet. However, I wouldn't mind it being cool if it was dry. Summer 1993 was on the cool side apart from June. If I remember correctly though it was also fairly dry overall, particularly August. I'm just not a huge fan of heatwaves, although saying that I don't mind a few thunderstorms!

During the last 20 or so years we have had warm months coming out of our ears with the warmest years in history and I just think it would be nice to have a few cooler years, before the heat inevitably returns!

[Thundery wintry showers]

It is possible to have a cool dry summer, although in high summer (July & August) it is quite rare, and such months tend not to be very impressive sunshine wise. This is because a lot of dry cool weather is delivered by northerly types (of the sort that we're looking at for the coming week) and these traditionally become rare after June because the jet tends to strengthen.

As for 1993, July was one of those "westerly" type summer months, generally wetter than average and with a considerable shortage of sunshine in the west, although some eastern parts were fairly sunny. August as correctly mentioned was cool and dry for most, but only some parts of the country (mainly the SE) had above average sunshine. August 2007 was also cool, dry and sunny in some parts of the country.

An extreme example of a dry and sunny but cool summer half-year month was September 1986, which in common with my first paragraph, was anticyclonic with frequent northerly winds.

[Stu_London]

Still at 15.1C to the 13th

The big news is that in keeping with the trend established in January, the models have done an about turn and below average now looks likely for the 2nd half of the month.

Sub 14 still looks a big ask, but somewhere in the low 14s might be feasible based on the latest outlook.

[summer blizzard]

Models certainly persistant in keeping high pressure to the west of the UK for much of the next ten days, probably quite cool but plenty of cloud in the east.

Stu, if the setup persists to the end of the month i would agree, 14.5C to 15.5C is the likely outcome.

[damianslaw]

Models certainly persistant in keeping high pressure to the west of the UK for much of the next ten days, probably quite cool but plenty of cloud in the east.

Stu, if the setup persists to the end of the month i would agree, 14.5C to 15.5C is the likely outcome.

Indeed if we maintain cool north easterlies expect maxes to get no higher than 19-21 degrees at best in much of CET land - not poor by any standards a little above the seasonal average, however, more importantly quite low minima - take tonight for example which is going to be quite a chilly night which will dent the CET, widespread 9's and 10's mins for southern central parts and lower further north look the order of the day for the foreseeable future consequently I can't see the CET climbing very much during the next week, indeed it could quite likely fall further..

[kold weather]

Well odds now in favour of something close to average it seems, this week seems to be dominated by average, possibly slightly above average daytime temps but decently cool night time mins which will help bring the average down.

Whether or not we can get down to average is going to depend on this set-up holding on right till the last few days of the month, but its possible we won't be far from average and 14.5C is still very do able and we certainly don't seem likely to come in well above average like was once possible.

[Gavin P]

Yes Kold, my 14.0 guess may not end up quite as embrassingly bad as it looked like it might do just a week ago. :lol:

[SteveB]

15.0c to the 14th, 1.3c

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum for today is down as a chilly 6.4C. So even if we manage a max of 18C, the CET will be 14.8C to the 15th.

[Paul T]

Interesting month this one.

Models a few days back were going for a big 15.5-16.0 finish. I think now they're forecasting around 14.5-15.0; Which is great, as 'Stu' says 15.3 and i say 14.6.

The south west is enjoying a lovely month, even with very average cet temps - i was enjoying the beach the other weekend, when the cet was bearly 14oc and most of the country had cloud.

Check out the current pressure patterns - the peninsula is looking pretty decent.

The missus is off to Ascot tomoro, and the weathers looking great, but, again, not to warm on the CET. Perfect from my perspective.

This is the summer to holiday in Cornwall and Devon....even with the pound starting to respond from some CPR efforts.

Edited June 15, 2010 by Paul T

[SteveB]

14.8c to the 15th 1.1c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

14.8C to the 15th. My guess on the 9th on being between 14.7 and 15.0C by the 15th was quite accurate.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was just 12.5C so coldest since the start of the month. Minimum for today is down as 6.9C so even if the max averages 20.0C we should be down to 14.7C by tomorrow.

Edit: beat me to it!

Edited June 16, 2010 by NaDamantaSam

[SteveB]

14.8C to the 16th, 1.0c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[kold weather]

Well the models are starting to diverge on the evolution, the GFS places the upper high further north giving a very simliar set-up to what we have right now, where as the ECM probably has a warmer set-up in place for a good portion of the run.

Looking like 14-15C will be the eventual outcome of the CET in June at the moment.

[Milhouse]

Its been an absolutely glorious couple of days here but its a pity it hasnt been reflected in the CET due to the annoyingly cool nights. However it looks like staying warm by day during next week after a coolish weekend so high daytime maxes should compensate somewhat.

[damianslaw]

Suspect the CET will hover around the 15 mark over the coming days, cool nights will put pay to any appreciably warm CET days even if maxima look mostly a little above the average.

[SteveB]

14.8c to the 17th, 0.9c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

14.8C to the 18th, rounded up from 14.75C

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at 14.7C. Minimum for today is down as 7.8C and maxes look to be in the mid-high teens so 14.7C at the most for tomorrow, though probably 14.6C more likely.