June CET

[Snowstorm1]

Hmmm My 14.5C prediction looks to be going well

[BornFromTheVoid]

14.5C is possible, though it looks like the last 5 days will decide it. We will probably be down to 14.5C for the 20th, then a slow rise to around 14.9C by the 25th. After that things seem fairly uncertain though by the end of June, it's difficult to get properly cool weather. I'd say somewhere between 14.5C - 15.5C seems the most likely landing zone now. Anyone guessing 15.0C or just above looking best.

[Kentish Kiwi]

14.5C is possible, though it looks like the last 5 days will decide it. We will probably be down to 14.5C for the 20th, then a slow rise to around 14.9C by the 25th. After that things seem fairly uncertain though by the end of June, it's difficult to get properly cool weather. I'd say somewhere between 14.5C - 15.5C seems the most likely landing zone now. Anyone guessing 15.0C or just above looking best.

Am I right in thinking that the ECM 12z would likely get the CET to 15.5C+?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Am I right in thinking that the ECM 12z would likely get the CET to 15.5C+?

Yep, I'd say you're right. The really warm stuff is just outside the reliable time-frame though. If the hot spell progged is still there for the 06Z runs tomorrow morning then a 15C+ CET would be almost guaranteed.

[summer blizzard]

GFS and ECWMF agree on a spell of warm weather with the CET at 15C on the 24th, they then bring in average temeratures to see out the month.

[damianslaw]

CET is taking a fair knock today, expect 0.2 degrees to be wiped off by tomorrow thanks some widespread fairly low maxima today and widespread appreciable below average minima. Thereafter a slow rise through early part of next week. Looks like the finishing mark will probably be low 15's, can't see a sustained warm spell, though minima will be mild next week.

[SteveB]

14.6c to the 19th 0.7c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Optimus Prime]

Yesterday came in at a low 11.8c. Last night came in at 6.6c.

[BornFromTheVoid]

With just 6.6 for the min, we should be at 14.5C tomorrow, but if today averages 18C or below, we will drop to 14.4C.

To get to 15.5C by months end, the last 10 days would have to average around 17.5C, which I think is too much. A few days might get to it or above but there also looks like being a few average days thrown in too. I'd say 14.8C by the 25th, and reckon 15.3C or 15.4C is the upper limit provided we get a very warm end to the month. Once again, anyone guessing around 15.0C looking best.

Anyone got any ideas on what way the end of month corrections might go?

[summer blizzard]

With just 6.6 for the min, we should be at 14.5C tomorrow, but if today averages 18C or below, we will drop to 14.4C.

To get to 15.5C by months end, the last 10 days would have to average around 17.5C, which I think is too much. A few days might get to it or above but there also looks like being a few average days thrown in too. I'd say 14.8C by the 25th, and reckon 15.3C or 15.4C is the upper limit provided we get a very warm end to the month. Once again, anyone guessing around 15.0C looking best.

Anyone got any ideas on what way the end of month corrections might go?

Going to disagree there and say no higher than 15.1C, more likely closer to 14.6C.

Model war has broken out, ECWMF has a southerly next weekend, GFS a northerly.

[Paul T]

I think its going to end around 15.4 ish, due to a warm end, hope im wrong though (as i said 14.6)

Paul

Edited June 21, 2010 by Paul T

[TonyH]

Warm this week then looking like a hot weekend. Upper 15s likely perhaps not quite hitting my prediction of 16c.

[Stu_London]

Anyone got any ideas on what way the end of month corrections might go?

I suspect it will be down as usual, especially as there are some cold nights in the mix.

A rising theme looks to be in order for the rest of this week, the last few days still a little uncertain.

Am fairy happy with my 15.3 at this stage, although i may still be a bit high after adjustments.

[BornFromTheVoid]

14.5C to the 20th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_max.html

Min today is down as 9.2. Temps already up above 20C across much of England so we will probably get somewhere between 23-24C as todays max. Daily cets of between about 16.5 and 17.5C for the next 4 days, then it looks like things could turn even warmer, mild nights in the low teens and days in the mid 20s.

June cet of 15.3/15.4C still very much on the cards IMO.

[The PIT]

14.5C to the 20th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_max.html

Min today is down as 9.2. Temps already up above 20C across much of England so we will probably get somewhere between 23-24C as todays max. Daily cets of between about 16.5 and 17.5C for the next 4 days, then it looks like things could turn even warmer, mild nights in the low teens and days in the mid 20s.

June cet of 15.3/15.4C still very much on the cards IMO.

The sudden unexpected swing to warm/very warm for the CET area will certainly pump the values up. So you're pretty much on the money there.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Again we avoid a cool June. It is now 19 years (1991) since the last significantly below average June. (June is also one of the few months of the year where the 71-00 average is lower than the 61-90). Although more recently the relatively cool Junes of 1999 and 2008 were marginally below both the 1961-90 and 1971-2000 averages respectively, there has not been a June even at least 0.5*C below average since 1991.

We finally cracked it last month with May, and achieved a May CET at least 0.5*C below average for the first time since 1996, but June is now almost as lacking as April in being below average for temperature (21 years since the last cold April, now 19 years since the last cool June). We just don't seem to be able to achive a low CET for June any more, and we almost just don't seem to be able to achieve a CET below 14*C in June any more. I am now beginning, similar to as with April, to ask the question as to whether we can achieve a proper cooler CET than average in June, even much below 14*C.

Low CETs for both April and June just appear to have completely disappeared from the UK climate in recent years. In two decades or almost you should reasonably expect at least every month in the year to see a lower CET than average once, twice or more.

[Wynn D Woo]

Again we avoid a cool June. It is now 19 years (1991) since the last significantly below average June. (June is also one of the few months of the year where the 71-00 average is lower than the 61-90). Although more recently the relatively cool Junes of 1999 and 2008 were marginally below both the 1961-90 and 1971-2000 averages respectively, there has not been a June even at least 0.5*C below average since 1991.

We finally cracked it last month with May, and achieved a May CET at least 0.5*C below average for the first time since 1996, but June is now almost as lacking as April in being below average for temperature (21 years since the last cold April, now 19 years since the last cool June). We just don't seem to be able to achive a low CET for June any more, and we almost just don't seem to be able to achieve a CET below 14*C in June any more. I am now beginning, similar to as with April, to ask the question as to whether we can achieve a proper cooler CET than average in June, even much below 14*C.

Low CETs for both April and June just appear to have completely disappeared from the UK climate in recent years. In two decades or almost you should reasonably expect at least every month in the year to see a lower CET than average once, twice or more.

Oh dear lessons have still not been learned despite last winter when people banded about 'impossible, never be achieved again' regarding cold months....next year could see the beginning of a run of colder Aprils and Junes or not, but it certainly is not unachievable.

[Thundery wintry showers]

NEB does seem to have a thing about months never falling below average.

Actually June is the most likely month to fall into that category since it was the only month for which the 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 averages both fell below the 1659-1999 and 1900-1999 averages. The strong implication is that there was a preponderance of cool June synoptics between 1961 and 2000.

[Roger J Smith]

I was there for all of June, 1972, and believe me, you probably used up all the June cold synoptics right there.

[North-Easterly Blast]

NEB does seem to have a thing about months never falling below average.

Actually June is the most likely month to fall into that category since it was the only month for which the 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 averages both fell below the 1659-1999 and 1900-1999 averages. The strong implication is that there was a preponderance of cool June synoptics between 1961 and 2000.

Yes very true. I am not sure myself what the average for June is from 1659-1999, but as far as I believe the 1900-1999 June average is 14.2*C (correct me if I am wrong), and the middle (175th) June CET in the rankings is 14.3*C (not sure if this is the overall average for those 300+ years).

You are correct about the Junes of the 1970s and 1980s - the Junes of both those decades were quite cool overall with averages of around 14.07*C, and the 1990s Junes were not that warm overall either - it was a little different for the 1960s which averaged 14.6*C overall, so in a cool decade the Junes were warmer than average overall.

After three relatively cool decades June did have a warm decade in the 2000s, averaging 15.04*C - if not the warmest June decade ever it must be almost there!

I may have a thing about months never falling below average - but over two decades or so every month in the year should reasonably be expected to fall below average (by 0.5*C or more) once or twice or even more (obviously some months will be below average on more occasions than others), so by any reasonable standard it is a remarkable factor of the UK's weather that the last two decades have seen a complete absence of cool Aprils and Junes.

[damianslaw]

It is looking like we are going to see our first decently above average month since November i.e. at least 1 degree above average. Upper most figure will probably be 15.5 degrees as I expect cooler weather next week.

For those who like warm summer weather, the timing couldn't be better after what has been a fairly lengthy sustained cold spell since mid Dec with only relatively short milder interludes (second half of March and April and that week in late May.

Its been quite an unusual year so far, with very little in the way of mild atlantic air apart from mid - late March, one of the prime reasons why we have remained relatively below average thanks to sustained cold minima in particular, even recently minima has been cold thanks to the cool continental influences. Its fast becoming a year to treasure for those who despise the atlantic. I can count on one hand so far this year the number of very wet days, most rain has been light and short in duration and as for gales, well we haven't had any this year - remarkable.

[BornFromTheVoid]

14.6C to the 21st.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at 16.1C. Min for today is down as 11.1C, and it's already looking quite warm so the max should be over 23C. A 0.1C increase looks likely from today.

[Thundery wintry showers]

15.04C for June in the 2000s is certainly a high mean but I remember one of Philip Eden's Telegraph articles quoting the warmest decade for June in the CET area having a mean of 15.2 or 15.3, so not quite a new record.

[reef]

15.04C for June in the 2000s is certainly a high mean but I remember one of Philip Eden's Telegraph articles quoting the warmest decade for June in the CET area having a mean of 15.2 or 15.3, so not quite a new record.

Using a running 10 year mean of Junes from 1668 onwards, it appears that only three single 10 year periods in the entire series have had a mean at or above 15C, these are:

1772-1781: 15.00C

1826-1835: 15.01C

2000-2009: 15.04C

So we currently have the warmest decadal average on record.

If this June manages 15.2C or higher, then we'll exceed that too.

What is suprising is that the average 10 year mean is 14.32C, so from 1972 to 2000 the running value was less than the long-term average. This tends to back up the notion that although Junes have warmed greatly, we came from a base much lower than average and that until this decade it was a month which hadnt really warmed to a great degree overall.

With July and August on the other hand the difference is extreme, with massive shifts. By 2004, August was almost 2C above the same 10 year running mean and still remains over 1C above now.

[Optimus Prime]

If June exceeds 15.0c (which I think it will) then it'll be following a similar (yet much warmer) 1963 pattern.

January 1963 -2.1c

February 1963 -0.7c

March 1963 6.0c

April 1963 8.7c

May 1963 10.6c

June 1963 14.9c

January 2010 1.4c

February 2010 2.8c

March 2010 6.1c

April 2010 8.8c

May 2010 10.7c