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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

 

 

Most likely lack of comment is because it doesn't fit in with the general dogma that the oceans are warming

I do agree that with these colder anomalies it is less likely that we will see the same intense storms coming off the atlantic this winter and what is likely they will be more southerly as well.

 

The oceans are warming. There are no doubts about this! August had the largest positive SST anomaly of any month on record. I think most people can see where the dogma really lies.

 

 

How come not much is being said about all the cold water anomalies in the Northern hemisphere? 

 

Surely it's going limit the amount of energy and temperature differentials, which fueled last winters' record breaking storms?

 

Looks almost the opposite to me.....any thoughts? 

 

 

It appears that unisys is the only product showing substantial SST cooling in recent weeks. Most others keep things quite warm.

 

Unisys

sst_anom_new.gif

 

DMI

satanom.gbl.d-00.png

 

NOAA

sst.daily.anom.gif

 

BOM

IDYOC054.gif?20141013045407

 

 etc

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

 

For the moment is seems that the unisys data is out of kilter with the others. Especially as its max and min SSTAs are an unlikely -20.7C and +25.2C! I'd put more faith in what the majority of the others show for now.

 

We also still have that warm pocket in the north east Pacific that helped the jet stream north toward Alaska and then down into the central US. Most of the SST products show a lot of warmth off the US east coast and up toward Canada still. As far as giving the jet stream an extra boost as it heads into the Atlantic, this is an important area for trend watching.

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

The Unisys looks way out and has a scale of blue that is more usually seen as representing much colder temps on other plots.

Do you know the climate base period for that one?

 

I like the Environment Canada SST anomaly map - temps are clearly defined and set against a very recent base - shows the trends against recent warming better than some that go back to the fifties/sixties for climatology.

 

e04cvCI.png

 

http://weather.gc.ca/saisons/sea-snow_e.html

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Its because all the heat has been 'hidden' in the deep oceans....oh no NASA have just found that out to be untrue.  I know let's be concerned about the ridiculous heat on the surface...and so it goes on.  If it was a football pitch the goalposts would be sideways on the halfway line by now.

Unisys does look out of kilter though and I think BFTV has brought up a very interesting point re the warm anomaly that still exists and has existed this year in the North Pacific...It could be a spanner in the works.

 

BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Its because all the heat has been 'hidden' in the deep oceans....oh no NASA have just found that out to be untrue.  I know let's be concerned about the ridiculous heat on the surface...and so it goes on.  If it was a football pitch the goalposts would be sideways on the halfway line by now.

Unisys does look out of kilter though and I think BFTV has brought up a very interesting point re the warm anomaly that still exists and has existed this year in the North Pacific...It could be a spanner in the works.

 

BFTP 

 

C'mon BFTP, I know you disagree with anything related to AGW, but you're completely misrepresenting the NASA study.

 

The recent NASA study found no heating in the abyssal depths of the oceans (below 2,000m), which is expected because:

meteorological forcing of decades to thousands of years ago should still be producing trendlike changes in abyssal heat content.

 

Where the oceans are accumulating most of the heat in recent years is from 700 to 2000m, as can be seen in the 2 graphs below.

 

Ocean heat content 0-700m...... ........ .... ........... 0-2000m

heat_content55-07.png heat_content2000m.png

 

 

 

Unisys does look out of kilter though and I think BFTV has brought up a very interesting point re the warm anomaly that still exists and has existed this year in the North Pacific...It could be a spanner in the works.

 

More of this kind of reasonable discussion on SSTs would be appreciated!

 

 

 

The Unisys looks way out and has a scale of blue that is more usually seen as representing much colder temps on other plots.

Do you know the climate base period for that one?

 

I like the Environment Canada SST anomaly map - temps are clearly defined and set against a very recent base - shows the trends against recent warming better than some that go back to the fifties/sixties for climatology.

 

e04cvCI.png

 

http://weather.gc.ca/saisons/sea-snow_e.html

 

 

That looks like an interesting one, cheers. Does it have an historical record? 

 

I'm not sure what baseline is used by unisys, Will try find out.

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

I thought Unisys looked wrong, certainly overdoing the cold anomalies around here and in the Atlantic. In reality there's quite a lot of above average water around our side of the Atlantic http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/sst_plot.html?i=34&j=2 (Switch to anomalies below the key).

 

It's like Unsys is comparing to averages for September or August rather than October. The Northern Baltic is near about average on the link above (significant cooling from summer), whereas Unisys shows several degrees below average (which it would be compared to the average for a month or two ago).

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

@ BFTV - they only have a max of a year animation on the link below the chart but I have found that there are archived charts back to 2010 available by changing the date in the address bar.

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

Looking at all models bar Unsys there is only a slight trace of a Tri pole showing at present. Not a strong enough signal for anything cold this side of Winter 2014/15.

OPI will maybe back this up at end of month even though an easterly QBO, and show a neutral slightly negative figure.

Wet, mild and Windy once again.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

The Unisys looks way out and has a scale of blue that is more usually seen as representing much colder temps on other plots.

Do you know the climate base period for that one?

 

I like the Environment Canada SST anomaly map - temps are clearly defined and set against a very recent base - shows the trends against recent warming better than some that go back to the fifties/sixties for climatology.

 

e04cvCI.png

 

http://weather.gc.ca/saisons/sea-snow_e.html

 

 

GF,

 

That looks like a good one to me also. Agreed that there does look to be something wrong with the UNISYS  one  (unfortunately, no I don't think its a travesty!!)..

 

However the Canadian map above is showing quite cool anomalies for the Southern Hemispheric oceans.

I thought this was where NASA were saying that they had just found the missing heat in the upper ocean. I cannot see a single warm hotspot next to the Antarctic sea ice. Yet if you look at the anomalies produced in the report saying "missing heat has been found', Eureka it shows all the missing heat pushed up right next door to the southern ice mass and espescially in Antarctica where there are hardly any reporting stations. 

 

They did not say anything about the strong warmth around the american pacific coast, perhaps they agree that is due to natural variability.

 

Will be interesting to see the cool anomalies in these southern oceans dissapper shortly since the models say it doesn't exist.

 

MIA  

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