Chase 2010 - Day 37 Discussion

[Nick F]

Just a quick one from me to start off today's chase discussion. Not time to peruse the models, but based on SPC, Texas Panhandle probably the most viable play for the team, or its Missouri (Misery) if you want a chance of a nado. Low tornado probs, but as we saw the other day in Colorado, the High Plains can pull of a couple of tornadoes even if SPC don't think so. My Chase target: Dumas, TX

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0727 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF NM AND THE TX

PANHANDLE INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...

...UPPER OH VALLEY...

LARGE NOCTURNAL MCS OVER INDIANA HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN

INTENSITY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT CONTINUES TO TRACK

EASTWARD AT 30-35 KNOTS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SOME DAYTIME

HEATING WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO STORMS RE-INTENSIFYING BY LATE

MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NY/PA. IF THIS OCCURS...THEY

ARE LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING

THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE

MAIN THREAT.

...OK INTO LOWER OH VALLEY...

OVERNIGHT STORMS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY HAVE SURGED THE SURFACE

BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE

UNCERTAINTY WHERE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THIS

AFTERNOON. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES WILL

PROMOTE CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON

ALONG THE FRONT...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS PARTS OF

MO/IL/IN/OH WHERE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED.

ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL

BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE...

A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CO WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND

PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF

SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM. THESE STORMS WILL EMERGE INTO THE HIGH

PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING

MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE

THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

[Paul Sherman]

One hell of a drive but going to go for it - Loving the Panhandles this year

Paul S & Team

Edit: Scrub that the 14z RUC Now looks very good for the Goodland area so going to jaunt west down I-80 Then drop down onto the CO/KS/NE Border area - Long shot in favouring the RUC But lets gamble with today seeing as we need to be in Western N******A tomorrow

[nsrobins]

Just off to play cricket but I've been looking at the SE corner of KS since the 11Z RUC so if anything's changed I apologise!

The high CAPE and loss of cap by 22Z should trigger convection nicely - and indeed the composite radar sim breaks out discrete cells in that area.

The upslope action over in the west is more tentative IMO, but as you've already discovered it can yield some beauties.

[ian cameron]

we are heading west from york our overnight position and are heading to north platte for lunch then probably further west and a bit south will see once we have had lunch playing out side of the watch box today

[Nick F]

Should be some play over NE Colorado/SW Nebraska today with some upslope flow. Both 12z WRF/NAM and 15z RUC show conv. precip across this area by 00z Frontal boundary, which you can just about make out from radar returns, currently lying roughly from Plainview TX NE up through Oklahoma to Arkansas City on the OK/KS border and then on up through Missouri will be the main focus for storms in the SLIGHT risk area stretching from TX Panhandle NE into the Ohio Valley. But, as SPC out look mentions, shortwave trough over Colorado will move east and aid t-storm developemnt over the High Plains, including where the team in headed. I can can understand Paul wanting to position to be in distance of tomorrow's slight risk over Nebraska and S Dakota too.

...NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY WILL TRACK EASTWARD

AND PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF

SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM. THESE STORMS WILL EMERGE INTO THE HIGH

PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING

MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE

THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS

[ian cameron]

we are heading 20 miles west from north platte then we will head south a little bit and sit near sutherland reservoir park to intercept the storm heading south east towards us

[Nick F]

That be the cell near Ogallala then on the I-80, currently severe warned.

[Tom Lynch]

we are heading west from york our overnight position and are heading to north platte for lunch then probably further west and a bit south will see once we have had lunch playing out side of the watch box today

[/quote

Hi IAN did you manage to get the mobile phone sorted out? I was speaking with John last night and I think the pin number will be the number on the top up card. The phone serial number can be found in the phone ,

Tom

[ian cameron]

Hi Tom prob will not bother now with the phone however if we are near a wallmart will try put 5dollers on it or something

the storm has now gone HP we are now 20 miles south and 10 mies west of norht platte with the supercell hot on our heels

[ian cameron]

this storm has just shot its load looks awful now on radar and visualy

[ian cameron]

heading south to McCook to try and get to the cell heading that way

[ian cameron]

overnighting in north platte will be in south Dakota tomorrow unless the models change over night

[Roger J Smith]

Just looking at the 00z RGEM and it seems that eastern half of Nebraska as well as southeast quadrant of South Dakota might have the best dynamics, I gather you're not totally "into" Nebraska but maybe tomorrow will change all that? Will say Yankton SD but perhaps on the Nebraska side of the border around there as my guess. But there may be severe storms as far south as KS-NE border and later on into ne KS.

The situation looks like a Pacific trowal developing, from central SD nw into SK, these are often rather tame for severe weather and the best dynamics will be near the northern edge of the tropical air mass which often follows the 573 dm thickness (or midway 570 to 576) so looking at those parameters, tropical air should reach at least the I-80 and probably almost to Yankton-Sioux City by afternoon.

[Paul Sherman]

Lol Roger - Nebraska has not been kind to us this year but today was not so bad, very nice HP Cell with Wall Cloud at times, nice green skies and a leisurely Chase.

Tomorrow not looking great for Tornado chances and It looks like my June Tornado drought might continue!

Paul S