Convective Outlook

[Coast]

Please continue discussion on the convective outlook here

[Coast]

ESTOFEX have almost the entire UK under watch today:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 07 Jun 2010 06:00 to Tue 08 Jun 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 07 Jun 2010 05:29

Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 1 was issued for NE Algeria / N Tunisia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for N Poland and SW Baltics mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A low pressure system over NE Germany is forecast to move eastward towards the Baltic States. Ahead of this low, a moderately warm and moist airmass overspreads most parts of Austria, Czech Rep. and W Poland. Another low pressure system will affect the British Isles in the afternoon / evening hours. Remnants of an upper low over the Black Sea will lead to unsettled conditions over the Black Sea region and Turkey.

DISCUSSION

...NE France, S Benelux, extreme W Germany...

In the late evening / night hours until Tuesday morning, some low-end instability will be available ahead of an upper trough. Mid level wind fields will strengthen to 20 - 25 m/s at 700 hPa and a narrow convective line with isolated severe wind gusts may develop. As convective initiation in this environment is questionable due to relatively weak forcing, no threat level was issued

.

UKASF have a smaller, but still impressive swathe of the country:

Storm Forecast Issued: 2010-06-06 22:21:00

Valid: 2010-06-07 00:00:00 - 2010-06-07 23:59:00

Regions Affected

(E Anglia, E Midlands, NW & NE England, Yorkshire, S, C & W Scotland, Northern Ireland are included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

Existing showers and thunderstorms courtesy of Low pressure "Cordula" will decay over the North Sea/Low Countries during the first few hours of this forecast period.

During daylight hours, scattered showers are expected to develop across the WATCH area of Britain - there is a slight risk of electrical activity, this most likely in northern England and Scotland given some decent orographic lift. Otherwise, most showers should be light-moderate in intensity and should decay widely during the late afternoon hours as a frontal system rapidly approaches from the southwest.

Behind this frontal system, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the Southwest of Ireland for a short time period during the late afternoon and evening hours. These showers become fewer in number later in the evening, after sunset.

Other sources/charts as usual:

Currently:

[Stuart]

yes it look not to bad for me well if the clound clear then we get some day time heating going

[Kain]

Well its pretty clear here this morning and extremely muggy, and there was me looking forward to it feeling fresher as the met office kept saying yesterday.

Surprised there is such a risk today, no one really looked at today for any potential development...not complaining though

K

[Nick F]

ESTOFEX have almost the entire UK under watch today:

Rather odd their forecasts of recent, they had no t-storm area highlighted yesterday over the UK, on Saturday they had just the far SE corner. Today i don't really see there being any storms with positive lifted index and just a little MLCAPE though can't totally rule one out perhaps over NEern England or Scotland - but I feel its not worth issuing a storm forecast for, though there does look to be a few heavy showers developing towards the east to north of Cambridgeshire up to eastern Scotland before the cloud and rain spreads in from the SW this evening.

Tomorrow looks interesting, the occluded front lifts N and E to lie across northern England and N Wales to the south we have a moist maritime flow and with low pressure close to the SW and with surface heating it will be come increasingly unstable across southern England where we see sunshine. Scattered thunderstorms look to develop mainly south of a line from Swansea to Norwich - Severn Estuary across to Thames Estuary looks favoured for slow moving thunderstoms looking at the CAPE charts. Severe potential looks low, given weak vertical shear - though fairly high precipitable water will lend to torrential rain and perhaps localised flooding given slow-moving nature of storms and we may see some hail too. SW'erly jet near SE may organise storms into line segments.

[Coast]

Rather odd their forecasts of recent, they had no t-storm area highlighted yesterday over the UK, on Saturday they had just the far SE corner.

They must be playing catch up with NW!!!

Tomorrow has been on the cards for a while now. Fingers crossed for something at least.

Encouraging!

[Lynxus]

Looking good for some heavy showers maybe a clap of thunder.

The rain moving into the west / s-west isnt showing any sferics currently.

Would be nice to see a proper storm.

-G

[Faye]

Sure I just heard a rumble in the distance coming from Bishops Cleeve area.

[Andy Bown]

On the Sat image posted by Coast above it has 'MCS' written within the frontal system moving in from the SW, does that suggest a thundery potential within the front itself?

[Jane Louise]

Sure I just heard a rumble in the distance coming from Bishops Cleeve area.

Hi Faye, I am in Cleeve haven't heard anything here., but I will keep on listening and will let you know.

[Faye]

Hi Faye, I am in Cleeve haven't heard anything here., but I will keep on listening and will let you know.

Well I think it was that area, I live in the village of Apperley.

Hopefully one is on the way!

[Jane Louise]

Well I think it was that area, I live in the village of Apperley.

Hopefully one is on the way!

Apperley, Love camping there.Beautiful place:)

Grey skies here and feeling a little chilly. But definitely keeping my eye on it.

[Joneseye]

Tomorrow looks interesting, the occluded front lifts N and E to lie across northern England and N Wales to the south we have a moist maritime flow and with low pressure close to the SW and with surface heating it will be come increasingly unstable across southern England where we see sunshine. Scattered thunderstorms look to develop mainly south of a line from Swansea to Norwich - Severn Estuary across to Thames Estuary looks favoured for slow moving thunderstoms looking at the CAPE charts. Severe potential looks low, given weak vertical shear - though fairly high precipitable water will lend to torrential rain and perhaps localised flooding given slow-moving nature of storms and we may see some hail too. SW'erly jet near SE may organise storms into line segments.

Fingers crossed about tomorrow as it looks like the area's that missed all the fun over the weekend are much more in the firing line. I notice the 7 day forecast from GFS is predicting approaching 30mm of rain for my location tomorrow.. good for the garden

[Lewis]

Afternoon guys,

I thought yesterday was suppose to destabalize things. Its as muggy as hell here and soo humid its hard to breath. The temp is only 18c but it feels much hotter.

I have not looked at the charts yet, but i presume theres some thundery weather on the way, whether or not it's this far North is another question.

[Wilxy]

Just started to rain here no thunder but hopefully as it moves more inland it will start to turn thundery.

[Nick F]

Just started to rain here no thunder but hopefully as it moves more inland it will start to turn thundery.

The frontal rain moving in from the SW is not expected to yield storms today, the rain will be mainly dynamic (i.e. gental uplift along the frontal boundary) rather than convective and lapse rates will be too weak - especially near the warm front moving NE. Best chance of convection will be across northern/eastern England & Scotland ahead of this cloud and rain. Then tomorrow, south of the frontal rain likely to end up over Nern England, the atmosphere will become unstable to surface heating and storms likely.

[Craigers]

Afternoon guys,

I thought yesterday was suppose to destabalize things. Its as muggy as hell here and soo humid its hard to breath. The temp is only 18c but it feels much hotter.

I have not looked at the charts yet, but i presume theres some thundery weather on the way, whether or not it's this far North is another question.

certainly agree with you there!!!!!! its very warm in my house and feels like the humidity is rising! dew point of 12c here so far!

The frontal rain moving in from the SW is not expected to yield storms today, the rain will be mainly dynamic (i.e. gental uplift along the frontal boundary) rather than convective and lapse rates will be too weak - especially near the warm front moving NE. Best chance of convection will be across northern/eastern England & Scotland ahead of this cloud and rain. Then tomorrow, south of the frontal rain likely to end up over Nern England, the atmosphere will become unstable to surface heating and storms likely.

could yorkshire capture any storm potential?

[Wilxy]

The frontal rain moving in from the SW is not expected to yield storms today, the rain will be mainly dynamic (i.e. gental uplift along the frontal boundary) rather than convective and lapse rates will be too weak - especially near the warm front moving NE. Best chance of convection will be across northern/eastern England & Scotland ahead of this cloud and rain. Then tomorrow, south of the frontal rain likely to end up over Nern England, the atmosphere will become unstable to surface heating and storms likely.

Cool thanks, hense the metoffice warnings for tuesday and wednesday.

[Lewis]

certainly agree with you there!!!!!! its very warm in my house and feels like the humidity is rising! dew point of 12c here so far!

could yorkshire capture any storm potential?

Its like an oven in my house, even with the back door open and front windows.

I think areas at risk are the more Central areas of N england today (including the far NE England). And later this afternoon the West midlands area and EA.

Edited June 7, 2010 by North Sea Breeze

[Guest]

 I think we're too far north for any action tomorrow. We can but hope I gues, that the frontal system shifts pretty quick to allow us some sun and convection tomorrow - it's a long shot though

[TonyH]

Thought it was just supposed to be bog standard frontal rainfall today.

It hardly warrents MCS as most of the rain area is light and drizzly. Still dry here.

I believed the thunder chances start tomorrow.

Sure I just heard a rumble in the distance coming from Bishops Cleeve area.

Doubt that! Probably a jet plane.

Barely any drizzle even in your area.

More chance tomorrow for you.

[Coast]

On the Sat image posted by Coast above it has 'MCS' written within the frontal system moving in from the SW, does that suggest a thundery potential within the front itself?

Not sure, but it's definitely still on the latest SatRep from Knml:

[Nick F]

any storm potential?

Low risk of a storm, there'll be heavy showers around though, especially towards Pennines. Risk looks low for northern England tomorrow too, with cloud and rain hanging around for much of the day.

[Lewis]

Low risk of a storm, there'll be heavy showers around though, especially towards Pennines. Risk looks low for northern England tomorrow too, with cloud and rain hanging around for much of the day.

Your area might be at risk later this afternoon into this evening, the NMM model suggests some fairly hefty showers about, for the SE, EA and then pushing up throughout the lincs and humber area.

Edited June 7, 2010 by North Sea Breeze

[Nick F]

Not sure, but it's definitely still on the latest SatRep from Knml:

Not sure why the've labelled MCS in those areas, no sign of any storms in the frontal system that is moving into UK today. Though depends on if they define an MCS not to contain t-storms too, I certainly wouldn't label heavy rain with it.

As one of my lecturers once said, don't beleive everything you read on the internet!