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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

These are my thoughts for tomorrow (at present)...these setups can favour the SE (Kesurex) zone despite time and time again being overlooked by the MetO. I would expect that as the day wears on tomorrow, some storms will organise into lines and affect wider areas.

My red zone is where I think stands the best chance of seeing thunderstorms, with orange being a decent chance and yellow in with a shout.

post-3790-12759252980387_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Nice to see GFS up the Cape for tomorrow. Should be a day with lots of heavy showers, downpours and small storms probably.

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Posted
  • Location: Darwen, BB3
  • Location: Darwen, BB3

If the ground shook and there was rumbling isn't that usally what u get when a earthquake happens?

Was probably just a big vehicle going past, if it was a ground tremmor then it was a very weak one.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

gfs_kili_eur33.png

Just started raining in Mid Sussex

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Thursday is looking like a day to keep an eye on the models IMO. LP sits across France and draws nice warm and moist air up behind a rather active warm front. The warm front (on present charts) appears to move up across SE and E England during the day, with a nice build of CAPE and storm potential post front across N France.

Of course, 3 days out is a long way, hence why I said it MIGHT be worth KEEPING AN EYE ON :blush: (before I get the "too far out to say you stupid boy" police on my tail :))

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

These are my thoughts for tomorrow (at present)...these setups can favour the SE (Kesurex) zone despite time and time again being overlooked by the MetO. I would expect that as the day wears on tomorrow, some storms will organise into lines and affect wider areas.

My red zone is where I think stands the best chance of seeing thunderstorms, with orange being a decent chance and yellow in with a shout.

:blush: :)

I think the main issue for East Anglia is the possibility of an easterly component to the wind, and if not that, then certainly sea breezes, which may prevent showers from getting very far east across the region- touch and go whether this effect is pronounced as far west as Norwich though. I don't expect there to be anything at, say, Lowestoft though.

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

:blush: :)

I think the main issue for East Anglia is the possibility of an easterly component to the wind, and if not that, then certainly sea breezes, which may prevent showers from getting very far east across the region- touch and go whether this effect is pronounced as far west as Norwich though. I don't expect there to be anything at, say, Lowestoft though.

Hey Mr Showers :)

As this forum isnt so busy today.. What do you think the weather will be like on he 2nd week of july down in cornwall? 12th onwards

-G

Edited by Lynxus
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Sorry, it's a bit too far in advance to predict! I do the month-ahead forecasts on this site so should be accumulating ideas by mid-June, but even then they will be generalised- I can only forecast specifics up to 2 weeks out.

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Sorry, it's a bit too far in advance to predict! I do the month-ahead forecasts on this site so should be accumulating ideas by mid-June, but even then they will be generalised- I can only forecast specifics up to 2 weeks out.

Fair enuf :blush:

I should know better than to look that far ahead :)

Just wondering if i should take suncream of beer lol

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Conditions tomorrow look similar to a day in mid-June 2007. Can't remember the exact date but I storm chased and ended up bagging a good funnel cloud near Hinkley, Leicestershire.

The wind convergence and moist airmass coming up behind a northward moving front is very familiar.

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Some nice precipitation rates progged mid-late afternoon period:

post-9715-1275927089495_thumb.gif

Am thinking cloud cover is going to inhibit sufficient convection for electrical cells to form over the Midlands. All data is favouring south Midlands, northern central-southern counties and further north and east into eastern England.

It has some very tasty, widespread totals. Could get interesting especially anywhere S of Birmingham. :blush:

I dont think cloud will be much of an issue will be much of an issue South of about the North Midlands. The Bbc Maps suggest sunny spells in between showers here. Cloud only really stubborn first thing as the front clears i think.

Edited by Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

:blush: :)

I think the main issue for East Anglia is the possibility of an easterly component to the wind, and if not that, then certainly sea breezes, which may prevent showers from getting very far east across the region- touch and go whether this effect is pronounced as far west as Norwich though. I don't expect there to be anything at, say, Lowestoft though.

My family have a caravan in Dymchurch (Kent) and frequently growing up, the summer months would deliver diurnally driven thunderstorms quite regularly (by UK standards). What I often noticed was that the sea breeze tended to intensify them some what (producing two robust funnel clouds in one storm), as the storms would generally move in from a WSW direction, hit the sea breezes blowing in from the SE and bingo, low level wind shear - the downs would enhance this somewhat too IMO, organsing the cells for a short while and making them very entertaining :)

So too was the case yesterday, the Thames Estuary (S Essex/N Kent) along with E Kent bagged some storms, which only really formed as they began closing in on the coast.

Woudn't rule out EA tomorrow at all (based on that logic) and hence why I've shaded it red for being in with a high shout.

Agree with Weather09 also, I think Birmingham area should've perhaps been red also on my map (though there are no cities marked on there so thought it was included lol)

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts

I thought that after yesterday there was no chance of any storm for a while, but it's good to see that there is the possibility of more tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich

These are my thoughts for tomorrow (at present)...these setups can favour the SE (Kesurex) zone despite time and time again being overlooked by the MetO. I would expect that as the day wears on tomorrow, some storms will organise into lines and affect wider areas.

My red zone is where I think stands the best chance of seeing thunderstorms, with orange being a decent chance and yellow in with a shout.

I'm back in Kent now for the summer, and I agree that westerly type scenarios are often better for my location. Won't be best pleased if Norwich bags all the storms though! :blush:

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Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

Would be good if us in the southwest got some storms! But is that looking less likely now?

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Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

Looks like my best chance of storms is for tommorow as im just inside the red area harry shaded on his map!

Ive missed out so far, not bagging one storm!! I reckon theres a witch around here who doesn't like storms so she does her voodoo magic and they don't come this way! haha!

Good luck for anyone in the north today guys i hope you get a good few rumbles! yahoo.gif

Edited by Mesodiscussion
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I'm back in Kent now for the summer, and I agree that westerly type scenarios are often better for my location. Won't be best pleased if Norwich bags all the storms though! :blush:

7th August 2008 from a westerly type scenario was a beauty- a big storm cell pushed slowly east towards Norwich, with a prolonged lightning display out to the west. The cell fizzled once it reached Norwich itself (although there was some heavy rain) but the lightning display was up there with the storms you sometimes get on the continent.

As for the southwest you may well get the problem that the SW becomes a breeding ground for storms further east, as often happens. There may be a chance of some convergence lines setting up which can sometimes result in storms in the SW.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

As I think Harry mentioned earlier, 12z GFS still shows that we *may* see the SE corner get clipped Thursday evening/night by storms over Nern France moving north as plume of warm moist air with high WBPTs advects north over France and destabilises near LP/trough.

Chances are though, the usual adjustment east nearer the time will take the potential away with further runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

Oh and i like the way people are complaining about how humid it is when its 16C out rofl.gif

Places in texas are 40C+ at the moment stop complaining! :blush:

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich

7th August 2008 from a westerly type scenario was a beauty- a big storm cell pushed slowly east towards Norwich, with a prolonged lightning display out to the west. The cell fizzled once it reached Norwich itself (although there was some heavy rain) but the lightning display was up there with the storms you sometimes get on the continent.

As for the southwest you may well get the problem that the SW becomes a breeding ground for storms further east, as often happens. There may be a chance of some convergence lines setting up which can sometimes result in storms in the SW.

I presume that came from the event that occurred in Kent on 6th August 2008 (Wednesday night) - I have to agree with your description, those storms were amazing, the best I've seen in this country with constant fork lightning which lasted for several hours.

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

NMM 12z has a convergence line slap bang over the Midlands for much of tomorrow afternoon. :blush:

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Untitled-2.jpg

There is the convergence zone Will i do well from that? hard to predict but i think the convergence zone is running through the midlands down into the bristol channel can anyone back me up on this. Gloucestershire could do well in the setup i hope :blush:

Edited by weathercoxy
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