Convective Outlook

[Lynxus]

There is the convergence zone Will i do well from that? hard to predict but i think the convergence zone is running through the midlands down into the bristol channel can anyone back me up on this. Gloucestershire could do well in the setup i hope

Whats the date and time o fthat model mate?

Metmonkeys convective forecast is good ( infact, its pretty much inline with the convergence zone. )

http://null.co.uk/?page_id=7

I love the part at the bottom " Latest Lightning Hotspot = Gloucestershire & South Midilands "

Giggity

Dogs et-al, BRING IT ON!

Sidenote: N-W, We need a Gloucetershire Group to have next to our avatars, I swear theres more of us than the kent lot. ( And we are more friendly , teheheheh )

Edited June 7, 2010 by Lynxus

[twister2005]

WOW if that was to come true

[Lynxus]

WOW if that was to come true

And i finish work at 15:30 tomorrow. YEAHHHhhhhhhhhh baby

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

Well hope it comes true as im currently working and living in Cheltenham working for the conservation love a good thunderstorm!

[Wilxy]

Whats the date and time o fthat model mate?

Metmonkeys convective forecast is good ( infact, its pretty much inline with the convergence zone. )

http://null.co.uk/?page_id=7

I love the part at the bottom " Latest Lightning Hotspot = Gloucestershire & South Midilands "

Giggity

Dogs et-al, BRING IT ON!

Sidenote: N-W, We need a Gloucetershire Group to have next to our avatars, I swear theres more of us than the kent lot. ( And we are more friendly , teheheheh )

Tomorrow at 3pm latest run.

[twister2005]

i am off work 2moro got to go to the dentist so thats worked out well bring on the storms

[Mesoscale]

Whats the date and time o fthat model mate?

Metmonkeys convective forecast is good ( infact, its pretty much inline with the convergence zone. )

http://null.co.uk/?page_id=7

I love the part at the bottom " Latest Lightning Hotspot = Gloucestershire & South Midilands "

Giggity

Dogs et-al, BRING IT ON!

Sidenote: N-W, We need a Gloucetershire Group to have next to our avatars, I swear theres more of us than the kent lot. ( And we are more friendly , teheheheh )

im right on the pink line so does that make me still 30+% risk? or 15+%?

constant light rain ehre now looks like the MCS < lmao has got to me from the SW!

Edited June 7, 2010 by Mesodiscussion

[Wilxy]

If tomorrow has good storm potential around the region, i might haved to go on a bit of a chase. At the moment id go for gloucestershire- oxfordshire area.

[Costa Del Fal]

Indeed, south Midlands and north and east up towards eastern England are most favoured areas tomorrow. Low-level convergence and trough will provide focus for showers and thunderstorms across these regions, and also given that best CAPE values are progged here, too, thanks to decent low-level moisture from the south-west coupled with upper cold pool. Think the risk for storms across south Midlands will be greatest around mid afternoon, and around mid-late afternoon further east.

Parts of central Midlands and north Midlands look to be a little too far north in terms of chances of a thunderstorm, but showers should become prevalent towards late afternoon and into evening. Thought I'd add that, even though vertical wind shear is weak at best and organised or severe threat is unlikely, there's still a risk of a weak, short-lived tornado along covergence zone in the stronger updrafts that form.

Id say Central Midlands certainly with in the firing line especially after Midday though i agree North Midlands a no no.

The latest Meto maps clearly show most cells over Southern and Central Midlands.

Edited June 7, 2010 by Blizzards

[lfcdude]

its looking good for wiltshire 2mor? im shoked haha

Edited June 7, 2010 by lfcdude

[Andy Bown]

im right on the pink line so does that make me still 30+% risk? or 15+%?

22.5% !!!!

[dogs32]

If tomorrow has good storm potential around the region, i might haved to go on a bit of a chase. At the moment id go for gloucestershire- oxfordshire area.

yes its definately a Glouc main event

I 'ii name the storm Jane Louise

Edited June 7, 2010 by dogs32

[A.J]

Damn....looks like 'not a lot' here then....the good news is that I'll be able to lower my electricity bill though as I wont have to turn on the Penkridge storm shield...That'll save some serious mega-wattage

[Ian Fergusson]

Brief note for those of you in my region (West Country, especially parts of Glos, Wilts, W/S Som) - - our very latest UKMO high-res modelling (UK-PP) and NAE assessment from the very nice Chief Forecaster at Exeter continues the theme I emphasised for y'all yesterday re Tuesday's potential.... some potent deep convection from early morning onwards; tending to wane later through the day so I'm expecting the most vigorous 'action' to be largely earlier as opposed to later in the day. T-storms with hail expected and this is well signalled in simulated profiles. Clearly, not all districts will see the heaviest downpours, but the current UKMO Advisory says enough regarding the regional thrust of things.... off to bed now; up at 0255 for early shift! And I'm genuinely delighted!

Ian

Edited June 7, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[Costa Del Fal]

Damn....looks like 'not a lot' here then....the good news is that I'll be able to lower my electricity bill though as I wont have to turn on the Penkridge storm shield...That'll save some serious mega-wattage

Wouldnt rule out something near you AJ even if your risk is lower. Plety of downpours and scattered non severe storms quite possible over much of the Midlands apart from the far north with downpours and local storms also in East Wales, parts of the SW, East Anglia and parts of the SE and CS England.

Edited June 7, 2010 by Blizzards

[dogs32]

thanks for keeping us all updated on the latest Ian

[Lynxus]

Thanks Ian,

Shame im at work. Lucky i sit next to a window though

Fingers crossed. Ill park my car under a shelter to stop the golf ball sized hail from breaking it.

[Wilxy]

Nice to see are region getting some of the action tomorrow latest gfs will be intresting to see where that convergence zone is, for my sake id rather have it slightly further south for my reason's but good luck to everyone.

[dogs32]

Thanks Ian,

Shame im at work. Lucky i sit next to a window though

Fingers crossed. Ill park my car under a shelter to stop the golf ball sized hail from breaking it.

I heard there are baseballs for your area

[Wilxy]

I hope gloucestershire sees some good storms tomorrow cause i heard you havn't done that well over the last few years correct me if im wrong?

[Lewis]

Looks like it's going to be a case of frontal rainfall for me throughout this week. I would probably say it won't brighten up until Wednesday Thursday, which will make way to Sunny spells and showers.

The front stalls over my area during the early hours of tomorrow morning, and stays there throughout the whole day. It all depends how for North it will get but i reckon it will probably sit from around liverpool/manchester northwards, before starting to fizzle out late afternoon onwards, even then with convection kicking off early for Southern parts, once they start to shift Northwards they will quickly deminish to sharp showers around Lincolnshire (with the possible thundery mix) any more of a Northwards shift to these parts would simply kill them off with no mid level CAPE, nor surface based, and of course dew points, and temps will be too low for the showers to keep their energy.

Paul Hudson tonight on Look North said that Lincolnshire may well see some heavy showers 2-3pm onwards, as the front clears from here by then, which should give some hope for convection thanks to some sunny spells.

After looking at the models, the GFS is going for a cooler period then what it was showing towards the end of last month and the start of this month. A typical N/NE'rly scenario which will bring plenty of low cloud once again to these regions, I would not call it a brief transition to cooler weather, it seems to stay like it throughout the whole run (until it of course goes cuckoo slapping a massive low pressure right over us).

I would say the areas below should be very good for storms tomorrow, could even be one or two funnels thrown in, and possibly a small tornado, although the latter less likely as wind shear and instability to create a tornado usually exists only ahead of a cold front and low pressure system.

I'm going to stick my neck out, and I think they will be a funnel cloud or possible tornado around the Market Harborough/Corby/Kettering area (just WSW of Peterborough) or SSW of Leicester

EA is a tricky one, but i think the boundary line is just East of Cambridge, these areas pick up a stiff old sea breeze (E/SE) wind, so it will prevent showers from pushing East/N'Ewards.

Stay safe tomorrow, but enjoy!

Edited June 7, 2010 by North Sea Breeze

[Rob]

Am hoping for some storms here in Maidstone, it's been pretty much storm free apart from 1!! rumble of thunder yesterday, although i am remaining doubtful that tomorrow will produce anything here other than rain!

[Mesoscale]

i hope the convergence zone is lower too not one storm here this year! so im in need of a fix!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I have a feeling we'll miss out, fingers cross though

[Wilxy]

I have a feeling we'll miss out, fingers cross though

Did you see ian's post earlier if not go back and check it