Convective Outlook

[Stuart]

Storm Forecast Issued: 2010-06-07 22:20:00

Valid: 2010-06-08 00:00:00 - 2010-06-08 23:59:00

Regions Affected

East Anglia, Midlands, C + S Wales, SE, CS & SW England (all of England and Wales south of Mersey-Humber are included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

Low pressure "Doris" becomes centred over the south Irish Sea on Tuesday, dominating the weather across the United Kingdom.

South of a north-ward moving occlusion, located over northern England, southern Scotland and Northern Ireland, numerous showers and local thunderstorms are expected to develop as a result of daytime heating and instability. It seems likely that the showers may form distinct lines along convergence zones, particularly in a SW-NE orientation over the Midlands.

Light winds will ensure that any showers are slow moving, with the potential for a weak convergence-type funnel possible. Showers will generally decrease in coverage from the south later in the afternoon and become increasingly isolated through the remainder of the evening hours.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/mode-forecast/id-298/

[Lynxus]

So.. Wheres these storms then? lol

Currntly moderate rain, Windy and just plain damp.

Fingers crossed guys.

Looking at a good 1000kj for midday

Infact, My fingers cant come uncrossed, They seem to of fused into this position.

Annoyingly, The charts shows the convergence line further north now?

Edited June 8, 2010 by Lynxus

[dogs32]

looks like some heavy showers growing over Devon ...destination Lynxus

[dogs32]

Heres hoping aye mate.

good chance today,But I doubt your get your golf ball

Edited June 8, 2010 by dogs32

[DanN]

I think Fairford is down Gloucester way? Looks good for later along with Cambridge maybe?

[Coast]

So what are the prospects today then?

ESTOFEX say:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Tue 08 Jun 2010 06:00 to Wed 09 Jun 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 07 Jun 2010 21:08

Forecaster: KOROSEC

SYNOPSIS

Weak geopetential heights are placed over much of Europe while a large trough over western Europe slowly shifts southwards and transforms into an upper low towards the Wednesday morning. Another short-wave trough continues eastwards from Baltic states into NW Russia. At surface, a frontal boundary extends from NW Russia into central Europe where it advects northwards as a warm front during the second half of the period. Another front extends from the large surface low over UK SW-wards across central France into Iberian peninsula. The third front races onto western Iberia overnight when the upper low/new system approaches.

UKASF showing:

Others:

and currently:

[Lynxus]

I think Fairford is down Gloucester way? Looks good for later along with Cambridge maybe?

Yeah fairfords close enough.

[twister2005]

morning looks like we could be in a good position today, makes a change

[Coast]

Can we please keep this thread specifically to convective discussion, there is a general weather discussion/weather banter thread available here for chat: forum.netweather.tv/weather-banter

Can you also put your storm reports here: forum.netweather.tv/storm-reports

[Lynxus]

Coast, Do you think the potential has moved further north than predicted yesterday?

[A.J]

Looks like the latest NMM hi-res model still, as last night, wants to take the highest CAPE & Lift values, as well as wind convergence zones around 50-75 miles further north than GFS....We'll wait and see!

[azores92]

Looks like the latest NMM hi-res model still, as last night, wants to take the highest CAPE & Lift values, as well as wind convergence zones around 50-75 miles further north than GFS....We'll wait and see!

fingers crossed! pretty miserable here at the moment, caught under this heavy burst of rain moving through the central midlands, delivering quite a lot of rain in a short space of time. 9mm so far here today.

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks like the latest NMM hi-res model still, as last night, wants to take the highest CAPE & Lift values, as well as wind convergence zones around 50-75 miles further north than GFS....We'll wait and see!

Indeed, even if the GFS was right, we are hardly in a bad position but the NAE and NMM are more accurate so lets wait and see.

[Neilsouth]

At the moment , too much cloud!

[Guest]

 The Met Office forecast says thundery showers this afternoon for the Peak District. That's as far north as the word 'thunder' goes today 

[Kain]

Its been raining here since about 2.30am this morning, the carpark is flooded and the drains can't cope too well, if we have some good storms after there might be a fair few flash floods around today.

Hopeing for some cracking storms today =)

[Harry]

 The Met Office forecast says thundery showers this afternoon for the Peak District. That's as far north as the word 'thunder' goes today 

Nah the thunder risk will go further North than that IMO.

There is a lot of cloud around though as NeilSouth says, though satellite image shows clearing skies advancing from the South and SW...based on that I'd think we'd start to see the first showers kicking off from the SW by late morning.

On another note, Rob McElwee gave a rather pleasing forecast last night, mentioning of the return of warmer humid air by Thursday - quote "we could see the warmth return by Thursday, in the form of more thunder"...GFS certainly improved on that front showing the CAPE spilling in to the SE corner with then any storms likely to drift West (Stormyking could be in luck based on current models)...but still a bit far out IMO to get excited as it is quite a dynamic setup over the coming days and likely to change.

[Costa Del Fal]

The current area of Heavy rain should be gone by around 11am. You can see the showers are right behind so lunch time onwards we should see the fun begin.

[Lynxus]

Some very odd cloud formations round here.

Its got more humid than it was this morning, Wind has died down and its getting warmer.

Ian's forecast this morning still states for round here seeing some good showers.

While GFS etc show some movement further north, I do trust Ians forecast and his own guess work as he has been right on a lot of occasions ( In winter and recently with these storms )

[Costa Del Fal]

Nice to see the lightning symbols on the BBC local forecast this morning.

[Kain]

Some very odd cloud formations round here.

Its got more humid than it was this morning, Wind has died down and its getting warmer.

Ian's forecast this morning still states for round here seeing some good showers.

While GFS etc show some movement further north, I do trust Ians forecast and his own guess work as he has been right on a lot of occasions ( In winter and recently with these storms )

Get some pics mate, we like oogling over pics

Just solid wall to wall grey here at the moment, and still chucking it down

[Lynxus]

Get some pics mate, we like oogling over pics

Just solid wall to wall grey here at the moment, and still chucking it down

Wish i could, But im at work

I suspect im on the very far back edge of the heavy rain heading north.

Hopefully it will clear up a bit soon to allow some decent convection. But from what i understand the instability above and the convergence zone being quite strong should give us some good cells even without hot weather.

[Coast]

GFS, up and coming:

[Kain]

Wish i could, But im at work

I suspect im on the very far back edge of the heavy rain heading north.

Hopefully it will clear up a bit soon to allow some decent convection. But from what i understand the instability above and the convergence zone being quite strong should give us some good cells even without hot weather.

Ahh bummer

And yp your right, its going to be one of those setups where heating is not really needed because of all the instabilty and convergence. Pretty cool really, because at the moment, if around here relied on surface heating we would be all moaning that its a non event lol.

Kain

[Marcus_surfer]

Bright spells trying to break out, feeling warm and humid. I think i will miss out here, with any activity further north.