Oceanic Debate

[Yorkshiresnows]

Fortunately, I've decided to buy a great big book on oceanography and will report back soon. I've also just this minute bought the normal selection of reviews on the subject to supplement the text (normal behaviour if you want to tell everyone the LI is good and everything else is not so good)

For those who wish to posit 'a few' then please refer back to Tamino's posts where 'a few' simply doesn't cut the mustard. Statistics is there for a a very (very!) good reason.

Report back soon <_<

Take care V.P. Text books on here just do not 'cut the mustard' !

Y.S

As for the hurricane season, well its probably more of a case...of dare I say it....the agencies not actually doing proper research on what could happen if the La Nina strengthens enough. In a mod/strong La Nina most seasons only get 12-14NS but they tend to feature quite a few beefy storms in those numbers. I've explained why in other places before but to put it simply the La Nina does not favour early development at all as we don't get the hybrid systems you get in neutral/El Nino years due to a more zonal flow.

So yeah its more of a case of the agencies under-estimating the La Nina in a big way, its REALLY becoming very impressive now in terms of the structure, probably has a reasonable shot at getting close to strong category if not into it and that will help to cool the globe I'd have thought over time.

Worth noting globally we are WAY down on the 2004-2006 period, I suspect the sun must be playing a role...

Hi Kold,

Yes, agree with all of the above. Second half year cool down is imminent in my opinion.

Y.S

[Yorkshiresnows]

Everything is primed for a big global cooldown in the next 12 months, the La Nina is looking VERY impressive right now, and the PDO looks like its going to stay negative for some time. The Atlantic should also lose its tropical warmth as the hurricane season kicks in...so we effecvtivly have 3 oceanic factors all cooling at the same time...

Probably have a shot at going as cold as we saw in 1992-1994 with the global cooling that occured IMO, esp if the Nina really powers up...

Hi Kold,

Further to your above post: Here's the latest from Roy Spencer's site:

"Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) measured by the AMSR-E instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite continue the fall which began several months ago. The following plot, updated through yesterday (July 29, 2010) shows that the cooling in the Nino34 region in the tropical east Pacific continue to be well ahead of the cooling in the global average SST, something we did not see during the 2007-08 La Nina event ; note the global SST values have been multiplied by 10):

Looks pretty impressive ?

Y.S

[Gray-Wolf]

Hmmmmm, gone from Nino' to Nina and most of the southern hemisphere's in winter......and is mostly ocean......

How are N.Hemisphere ocean temps doing???

Edited August 2, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[kold weather]

I'm willing to bet the disconitnue between the ENSO and Ocean temps this time round is nearly all due to the very warm Atlantic, with nearly the whole basin warmer then it was in 2007-08...so it'll probably take a good 6-12 months to get rid of a good part of that heat and cool the basin down but once that happens the temps will probably go below average globally.

[Yorkshiresnows]

I'm willing to bet the disconitnue between the ENSO and Ocean temps this time round is nearly all due to the very warm Atlantic, with nearly the whole basin warmer then it was in 2007-08...so it'll probably take a good 6-12 months to get rid of a good part of that heat and cool the basin down but once that happens the temps will probably go below average globally.

Hi Kold,

Yes, good points made. I guess that a lot will depend of whether the Hurricane season picks up and stirs the Atlantic pot .... so to speak. A higher frequency of storms should lead to a quicker cooling of the Atlantic ?

Y.S

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Kold,

Yes, good points made. I guess that a lot will depend of whether the Hurricane season picks up and stirs the Atlantic pot .... so to speak. A higher frequency of storms should lead to a quicker cooling of the Atlantic ?

Y.S

and a faster warming of the atmosphere?

[jethro]

Only if all the energy is trapped there,

[Gray-Wolf]

Does anyone know of a gas that could do such a thing?

EDIT: Check out the ocean side of this;

http://www1.ncdc.noa...2009-lo-rez.pdf

90% of all warming over the past 50yrs trapped by the oceans..........oh dear, once those deep ocean currents resurface, with their modified heat content, wee's a gonna fry!

Edited August 3, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[pottyprof]

Does anyone know of a gas that could do such a thing?

EDIT: Check out the ocean side of this;

http://www1.ncdc.noa...2009-lo-rez.pdf

90% of all warming over the past 50yrs trapped by the oceans..........oh dear, once those deep ocean currents resurface, with their modified heat content, wee's a gonna fry!

Great stuff Ian. Will have a read tomorrow.

Just one thing...

This is the latest SST anomaly chart an looks virtually opposite from the charts on that pdf

[Gray-Wolf]

The report is for 09' P.P. (soz ,didn't make it clear?) so today's Nina' shows up well.

As for the Atlantic? where's all those 'Canes we thought we were due? will we ever shed that heat content or will the Atlantic form it's own Nino' signature/weather patterns?

As for the Arctic Rim? seems too well make up for the Nina' trace.....

Edited August 3, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[kold weather]

The heat in the tropics of the Atlantic will almost certainly fade in the next 6-12 months, even if the hurricane season were to bust. The Pacific tends to have a mirror image in the Atlantic after a period of time, as we saw this year and early in 2009 as well.

What IMO will happen is the QBO signal and the La Nina both are suggestive of +NAO and that usually is a cooling signal in the tropics. So that will cool down regardless IMO, probably will remain above average unless things seriously change. The subtropics will remain warm for a time yet as wil lthe Arctic and we will probably need a multi-year event to see big changes all over the Atlantic. With time with the tropics cooler the anomalies will ease away from the sibtropics as well ,but probably not totally.

This La Nina is really going gungs though right now, its becoming very powerful for the time of year, way more advanced then 2007 at this stage and the strongest at this stage since 1998/1999.

[Gray-Wolf]

The heat in the tropics of the Atlantic will almost certainly fade in the next 6-12 months, even if the hurricane season were to bust. The Pacific tends to have a mirror image in the Atlantic after a period of time, as we saw this year and early in 2009 as well.

What IMO will happen is the QBO signal and the La Nina both are suggestive of +NAO and that usually is a cooling signal in the tropics. So that will cool down regardless IMO, probably will remain above average unless things seriously change. The subtropics will remain warm for a time yet as wil lthe Arctic and we will probably need a multi-year event to see big changes all over the Atlantic. With time with the tropics cooler the anomalies will ease away from the sibtropics as well ,but probably not totally.

This La Nina is really going gungs though right now, its becoming very powerful for the time of year, way more advanced then 2007 at this stage and the strongest at this stage since 1998/1999.

Could it be that you are pinnig the way things 'used to work' on the the new workings KW?

[Yorkshiresnows]

Could it be that you are pinnig the way things 'used to work' on the the new workings KW?

Could be .... either that .... or your wrong !!

Y.S

[Gray-Wolf]

Could be .... either that .... or your wrong !!

Y.S

Oh Yes.......there is that!

[Yorkshiresnows]

Hi Folks,

Latest on the Ocean SST'S and the continuing drop into La Nina:

The following plot shows the global average SSTs continue to cool, while the Nino34 region of the tropical east Pacific remains well below normal, consistent with La Nina conditions.

Also see the below taken from Roy Spencers blog on the oceanic cloud cover. - http://www.drroyspencer.com/

Anomalously High Oceanic Cloud Cover

"The following plot shows an AMSR-E estimate of anomalies in reflected shortwave (SW, sunlight) corresponding to the blue (Global) SST curve in the previous figure. I have estimated the reflected SW anomaly from AMSR-E vertically integrated cloud water contents, based upon regressions against Aqua CERES data. The high values in recent months (shown by the circle) suggests either

(1) the ocean cooling is being driven by decreased sunlight, or

(2) negative feedback in response to anomalously warm conditions, or

(3) some combination of (1) and (2).

Note that negative low-cloud feedback would conflict with all of the IPCC climate models, which exhibit various levels of positive cloud feedback".

Y.S

Edited August 23, 2010 by Yorkshiresnows

[sunny starry skies]

It's a bit rich to talk about ocean 'cooling' on the downward limb from one of the highest peaks in ocean heat on record. A look at the trend shows steadily increasing heat content in the oceans:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Robust-warming-of-the-global-upper-ocean.html

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-intermediate.htm

But you're not really interested in trends, are you, Y.S.? You seem to prefer detrended measures such as AMO (detrended N Atlantic SST) or PDO (detrended and spatial measure of N Pacific SST), or an hypothesis that has repeatedly been shown not to work (negative cloud feedback).

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd not worry about the 'grave diggers' SSS (folk whose overt opinions do no more than dig their own graves for them to occupy later as the proof becomes undeniable).

I'm sure your suspisions about where we (as a planet) are headed as a direct concequence of increasing our ability to trap heat on the planet are well within 'the ball park' of reality....unlike others views.

We are talking vast amounts of energy and vast reserves of ocean so change will appear cripplingly slow and masked by natural fluctuations in the surface layers. Just as with the atmosphere these 'natural' masks will become less and less noticable over time as the heating builds and it's influences manifests in an unmistakeable way.

Sadly ,until such a time that events render denial a moot point, we have to endure the human reluctance to embrace their issues and their willingness to displace as a form of natural defence (I call it "El Barto" or "I didn't do it!")

[Yorkshiresnows]

It's a bit rich to talk about ocean 'cooling' on the downward limb from one of the highest peaks in ocean heat on record. A look at the trend shows steadily increasing heat content in the oceans:

http://www.skeptical...pper-ocean.html

http://www.skeptical...ntermediate.htm

But you're not really interested in trends, are you, Y.S.? You seem to prefer detrended measures such as AMO (detrended N Atlantic SST) or PDO (detrended and spatial measure of N Pacific SST), or an hypothesis that has repeatedly been shown not to work (negative cloud feedback).

SSS

I'm just posting what are the latest charts and illustrate the oncoming La Nina quite well. They are taken from satellite measurements

The cloud feedback issue is not something that has been debunked. It is a theory that may well have a role. The IPCC admit as much with statements in the fourth summary report of to the effect of cloud feedbacks being of some uncertainty.

The data shown is interesting to me. If you wish to ignore it then that's fine. Its a free world but I have every as much right to post on here as you do.

Y.S

[Gray-Wolf]

Very interesting to see the scale of warming across the bottom of the ocean. When this arrives back up top it will really start to add into the global heat budget! If folk need to find 'missing heat' then look no further than the abyssal plain.

[jethro]

How about everyone has another look at the code of conduct before making any more posts. The level of snide bickering is on the increase folks, it does none of you any favours; either adjust your tone or accept your posts will be deleted and you'll be prevented from posting more in this area.

[arcticadventurer]

NOAA have predicted a strong La Nina.

Edited August 24, 2010 by arcticadventurer

[Gray-Wolf]

NOAA have predicted a strong La Nina.

Let us see if it pans out but ,and maybe more importantly, how it's effects manifest back to back with the hottest period measured so far? (and some of that during one of our 'better' winters...... so let's 'look' global even if we feel it 'local'........it's a big world so lets not judge it by our own neck of the woods....)

Edited August 24, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[jethro]

Let us see if it pans out but ,and maybe more importantly, how it's effects manifest back to back with the hottest period measured so far? (and some of that during one of our 'better' winters...... so let's 'look' global even if we feel it 'local'........it's a big world so lets not judge it by our own neck of the woods....) :o

Hmmm, do I detect a little bit of changing the argument to fit here?

So, if we get a cold winter again it's not significant but Russia having a hot summer is :lol:

[arcticadventurer]

Let us see if it pans out but ,and maybe more importantly, how it's effects manifest back to back with the hottest period measured so far? (and some of that during one of our 'better' winters...... so let's 'look' global even if we feel it 'local'........it's a big world so lets not judge it by our own neck of the woods....) :lol:

[/quote

All I said was NOAA have predicted a strong La Nina nothing else

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Very interesting to see the scale of warming across the bottom of the ocean. When this arrives back up top it will really start to add into the global heat budget! If folk need to find 'missing heat' then look no further than the abyssal plain.

Hi GW,

Are you missing a link there? It WOULD be interesting if you could point us at the details

How about everyone has another look at the code of conduct before making any more posts. The level of snide bickering is on the increase folks, it does none of you any favours; either adjust your tone or accept your posts will be deleted and you'll be prevented from posting more in this area.

thanks Jethro,

At times it seems that both sides need a prod