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Met Office Hurricane Forecast


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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Our latest forecast confirms the North Atlantic tropical storm season looks set to be active this year.

The Met Office prediction of 20 tropical storms between July and November, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 13 to 27, is well above the 1990–2005 long-term average of 12.4.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is a measure of the storm lifetimes and intensities as well as total numbers over a season. This year’s most likely ACE index is 204, with a 70% chance that the index will be in the range 90 to 319 — this is again well above the 1990–2005 average of 131.

This would make it one of the most active tropical storm seasons on record. In the last 40 years, only 2005 has seen more storms in the July to November period with 25 recorded, and only three seasons (1995, 2004 and 2005) have recorded a higher ACE index than 204.

For the past three years, the Met Office forecast has given good indication of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and was able to identify the relatively quiet seasons of 2007 and 2009 from the active season of 2008.

Matt Huddleston, Principal Consultant on climate change at the Met Office said: “North Atlantic tropical storms affect us all through fluctuating oil, food and insurance markets. The Met Office forecast has demonstrated its benefits over recent years through the accuracy of its predictions.â€

This year the Met Office has moved to a new prediction system called GloSea4. The new generation model has better representation of the complex physical processes that cause tropical storms and hurricanes to form, which should further improve the accuracy of the forecast.

The forecast also uses information from the seasonal prediction system of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

One of the key indicators for a tropical storm season is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which affects sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and, remotely, conditions in the North Atlantic.

Therefore, it is vital to be able to accurately predict the ENSO cycle and GloSea4 has shown good skill in such predictions.

Forecasts and background information on tropical storms can be found on our tropical cyclones pages.

Our Climate Services for Reinsurance provide expert advice on tropical storms.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100617.html

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

another forecast of well above average activity. Also unlike their seasonal forecasts over the past year or two this area has been well predicted by them.

I think, even hurricane fans, we must all hope that the oil head has been thoroughly capped before any get near that area and that as much as possible of the oil slick can be kept of the beaches-a faint hope perhaps. (I am referring to the oil NOT posters!)

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

here is what the have gone for in previous years.

2009 6 tropical storms / ACE 60 (observed 9 / 51)

2008 15 tropical storms / ACE 147 (observed 15 / 143)

2007 10 tropical storms (observed 12)

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

I can't remember the last time the METO forecasted an ACE score this high before.

This is as big a wake up call as anybody in the threat zone is going to get pre-season.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Can't really argue with the ideas brought up by Met Office.

I personally wouldn't go as high as 20NS between July-November, I think this maybe more the type of season with many long range systems, which tend to prevent monster number seasons, 1995 being the exception to that idea.

What I do agree with though is the ACE being around 200, quite a few seasons that have evolved in a broadly similar way such as 1998 ended up with very large ACE totals and I suspect the same thing will occur this season, and given an early uptick in the wave train I'm still very comfortable with say the 16-19NS range.

If your going to get a very large season, typically July will get 3-5 NS and on average the top 8 busiest seasons (16 storms and above) will have reached thier 5th storm by the start of August, so if June has nothing then July will have to chip in to keep up with the average of those seasons...

Of course the caveat is you can still get a huge season even if June and July had nothing, as 2004 showed...and FWIW if we don't have at least 2-3 storms in July I'd be somewhat surprised, and the odds of a major hurricane in July are much higher then normal as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet, North London
  • Location: Barnet, North London

And I'm worried for all the people in Haiti living in temporary camps after the Earthquake.

A direct hit will make all of them homeless again.sad.gif

Steve M

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

And I'm worried for all the people in Haiti living in temporary camps after the Earthquake.

A direct hit will make all of them homeless again.sad.gif

Steve M

Also the Gulf if BP don't the leak sorted out.

You watch it'll be the quietest one on record and everyone goes away scratching their heads.

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Posted
  • Location: Boston, Lincolnshire, UK
  • Location: Boston, Lincolnshire, UK

If this is going to be a record-breaking season, you'd have thought we'd have had a decent system by now - I just can't see how this will be an above-average season.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

most hurricanes don't form this early K, July onwards is the most favoured time

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

most hurricanes don't form this early K, July onwards is the most favoured time

Indeed, even the record breaking 2005 had only had one tropical storm at this time, with the first hurricane not occuring until July.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Worryingly BP reckon they won't have the leak fixed until August. Do they have that much time???

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

This will probably be the type of season where the normal August ramp up will occur in middle-late July, so I'd expect at least a few systems before August and quite possibly a few more then a couple. I'm also somewhat expecting a Major Hurricane in July but that rather depends on the tracks any systems decide to take.

I'd be surprised that being said if this does ramp up anywhere close to 2005 type levels, but really you don't need those sorts of numbers to have a mental and damaging season...

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