Major Hurricane Celia

[Paranoid]

Aye, the conditions are too good there to tell whether the system is annular or not. I imagine it merely has the appearance of an annular hurricane given the forecasted weakening from now on.

[summer blizzard]

Certainly a beautiful system and certainly undergoing rapid devlopment, a 14mb pressure drop occured in the past six hours!

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/?sst

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/nepac_sst_oper0.png

Looks like its going to get too far north before its westward turn to survive as a hurricane, although it is plauable that Celia will make it near Hawai still Tropical, and have a chance to develop once it passes Hawai.

You can also see what will happen to 93L if it gets into the Gulf, those dark reds are 30C.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/rb-l.jpg

Outer eyewall is massive, could well tighten to make category 5 before weakening, at the very least it should hold its strength a while.

FWI, i'd say its annular.

[Somerset Squall]

Celia certainly does look impressive. I think also that she could stregthen further, and whilst cat 5 is not forecast by any models it is not impossible. However, my personal hunch is that Celia will peak at a mid-range cat 4.

[Somerset Squall]

Well scrap that! Celia has gone mental overnight and has become the third cat 5 of the year, with intensity rocketing up to 140kts!!

[Paranoid]

Still at Cat 5 for the last advisory, would have posted it earlier but forum was down.

000

WTPZ34 KNHC 250840

TCPEP4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 25

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010

200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...CELIA STILL A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...WEAKENING EXPECTED LATER

TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.4N 117.0W

ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.34 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST. CELIA IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. CELIA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. THE HURRICANE IS APPROACHING COOLER SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140

MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[kold weather]

Yep category-5 Celia, only the 2nd to ever form in a non El Nino year!

Celia has looked stunning overnight with pretty much zero changes to the structure, this is a classic sign of it being Annular...what a great benchmark that has been set for the atlantic!

[Iceberg]

Total agree, don't bother with Pacific ones normally but this is a thing of pure beauty.

The RI shows that storms should never be underestimated, models show very rapid degredation though unfortunately, can't wait for a good Modis picture of it.Classic saw blade.

[Paranoid]

Down to a Category 4 but still very strong.

000

WTPZ34 KNHC 251432

TCPEP4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 26

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010

800 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...CELIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...FURTHER

WEAKENING EXPECTED ...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.8N 118.1W

ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST. CELIA IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. CELIA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. THE HURRICANE IS APPROACHING COOLER SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140

MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[Cookie]

She is breath taking some images

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Celia is weakening at a fair pace, intensity has dropped to 115kts, making her a low end cat 4. Looks like some dry air is filtering into the northern quadrant of the hurricane, which is reducing convection. The eye is now enlarged and is not as well defined as earlier. Stable air and cooler sea temperatures should continue to weaken Celia until dissipation in about 4 days time. Thanks for posting all the images Cookie, certainly a stunning storm and a surprsing one too, two years in a row with a cat 5 now! Celia was joint strongest June hurricane, tied with Ava in 1973.

[Somerset Squall]

Celia is rapidly weakening and will become a remnant low sooner rather than later. Over the last 24hrs, convection has continued reducing as the system encounters stable, dry air and cool sea temps. Intensity has decreased to 45kts, and the storm will continue to spin down as the convection can no longer support a strong LLC.

[Cookie]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 15.9N 123.4W 45 KT

12HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 124.1W 35 KT

24HR VT 28/0600Z 16.0N 124.7W 30 KT

36HR VT 28/1800Z 16.0N 125.3W 25 KT

48HR VT 29/0600Z 16.0N 125.8W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72HR VT 30/0600Z 16.0N 127.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[summer blizzard]

Still looks quite organised, just literally getting smaller and winding down.

[Somerset Squall]

A large burst of convection fired up over Celia last night, which has allowed the storm to remain a 35kt tropical storm. Convection has come and gone through the day, and Celia now consists of a completely exposed but still strong LLC. Unless convection comes back, Celia could degenerate into a remnant low tomorrow. Celia has practically slowed to stationary in a very weak steering environment- in fact, a slow eastwards drift has been reported. Shear is low over the storm, but the air is still very stable as shown by the stratocumulus clouds to the northwest, and waters are a cool 25C. Bursting convection cannot sustain a tropical storm for ever, and further weakening and eventual dissipation is likely. However, the convective burst last night has certainly prolonged Celia's life.

[Somerset Squall]

Convection has not fired at all over the LLC of Celia in the last 24hrs, therefore Celia has been declared a remnant low. A slow east-northeasterly drift is forecast as the LLC dissipates fully over cool waters and dry air. Regeneration is not expected.