General Storm Discussion Thread

[vortex_liam]

anyone seen paris All them lightning strikes?

[Coast]

Paris Webcam

Nick has highlighted the Paris outlook on the Convective forecast thread with a great Skew T sounding for them!!!

[Nick F]

Storms forming in the Paris Basin:

12z Trappes (Paris) ascent:

[Thundery wintry showers]

Ah gotta love Mr Fish, even he seems to 'want' a thunderstorm, saying that although the computer model keeps them out to sea that may not be the case

Michael Fish's forecasts for N-W strongly remind me of the "old-style" BBC forecasts of the 1990s in terms of presentation, while at the same time incorporating better graphics- best of both worlds really. Long may that continue!

I think France's thunderstorms look like passing away to the east- the band up the central strip is currently on a collision course for Kent but as the low pressure to the north moves east it will probably send the band eastwards with it.

[Harry]

Paris Webcam

Nick has highlighted the Paris outlook on the Convective forecast thread with a great Skew T sounding for them!!!

Lovely Cu field gone up for the Parisians!! Lucky sods!! We've got flat looking Cu mixed with Stratus and sunshine - by far the muggiest it has been so far this year!

Quite interesting that the anvils of the storms which have fired are spreading towards the NNW, towards Kent! This would indicate the presence of NNW upper steering winds, which could hopefully help push some storms closer our way, especially if more fire up to the West of the line which is exploding now...time will tell!

[Coast]

Lovely Cu field gone up for the Parisians!!

*** NexStorm TRAC Report generated 02/07/2010 15:57:47

Tracking 1 thunderstorms from IOW

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID E-4504 detected 15:28

Storm location bearing 127.4 dgr distance 218 mi

Last recorded activity 15:57

Intensity class Moderate

Intensity trend Intensifying

Current strikerate 9/minute

Peak strikerate 9/minute

Total recorded strikes 70

Cloud-Ground strikes 40 - 57.14%

Intracloud strikes 30 - 42.86%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 0 - 0.00%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 40 - 57.14%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 22 - 31.43%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 8 - 11.43%

-------------------------------------------------------

*** TRAC Report end - NexStorm V1.7.0.2612:PCI

which could hopefully help push some storms closer our way

Ever the optimist H !!!!!!

[Nick F]

Temperatures getting up to around 35C so far in central eastern France and towards Paris Basin:

[Coast]

Look at those DP's around Paris too!!!!

[ZONE 51]

its all exciting...so close..wont know till late really..

[Paul Sherman]

Looks like something might be trying to fire up near to Norwich on the latest Sat Pics.

Anyone near to Norwich or Yarmouth able to confirm.

Temps in Eastern Essex earlier were 84f with Dewpoints of 64f

Paul S

[Harry]

I am indeed an optimist Coasty though a realist, not particularly excited about prospects, but won't rule anything out when we have decent humidity and storms firing across the river!

We have Cu streaming in from SSW at the moment - alas, nothing Ac looking so clearly the lack of instability is present as suspected!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks like something might be trying to fire up near to Norwich on the latest Sat Pics.

Anyone near to Norwich or Yarmouth able to confirm.

Temps in Eastern Essex earlier were 84f with Dewpoints of 64f

Paul S

30C at Norwich Airport and there are some fairly large cumulus congestus just to the south-east at the moment, though no sign of anything particularly intense yet.

[ZONE 51]

could someone explain verlocity as i can see GFS shows it strong were this storm is thanks

[Paul Sherman]

I really do think that if anything is going to Fire in the Uk in thenext few hours it is going to be from Herts through Suffolk and Norfolk, Convective Temps have been breached here and it looks like some sort of Stalled Boundary is focusing Convection here.

Paul S

[vortex_liam]

And where in the UK are you!? Putting it in your profile so it appears by your name/avatar will be very helpful!

At least Tim's profile/avatar says where he is!

Ok, sorry i joined yesterday not used to the fourm yet ...

Have you seen by poole i've tracked that and it is getting weeker... Anyone in poole that could tell me if there was a chance it might fire up later on?

[Andy H]

I really do think that if anything is going to Fire in the Uk in thenext few hours it is going to be from Herts through Suffolk and Norfolk, Convective Temps have been breached here and it looks like some sort of Stalled Boundary is focusing Convection here.

Paul S

Not surprised the heat here in the last hour has got unbearable, but under clear skies at the moment, but so so humid, fingers crossed

[Harry]

Do we think further storms are likely to fire behind those which have erupted already, i.e further West?

As it stands, none of those are coming anywhere near close, even for a light show at the moment I'd say!

[vortex_liam]

The skys look stormy outskirts of london ( really a village)

EDIT: check these out http://img641.imageshack.us/gal.php?g=s8303309.jpg

[Mammatus]

xcweather reporting towering cumulus at Wattisham (16:50). Certainly a very muggy and hot afternoon here in Suffolk.

Seasons

[Neilsouth]

WOW!!!

I was at dover castle today and i could see the distant storms going up , but on my way back it was like an atom bomb in the distance.. Fully fleged anvil'd top and outspread , however i was not able to park aside and take a photo

[Coast]

Yep, been trying to think of superlatives to describe the current conditions down here - best I can come up with is oppressive!!! Currently the DP in Eastbourne is 17.0 DgC and we could do with a storm just to break the sticky heat!

[r6 steve]

Can anyone confirm if there has been any thunder/lightning in the Poole area?

Or has blizortung detector on the iow weather lightning detector gone nuts?

It says there has been lightning everywhere lol

[Neilsouth]

Peter Cockroft ( storms tonight )

[Harry]

Peter Cockroft ( storms tonight )

That was Nazaneen's thoughts for Kent too! Looks like I am going to miss this first wave (not left for Dymchurch yet) but am hoping some move up later...my luck will dictate that it is over now for E Kent but storms will push further west across W Kent and London area...

SO SO SO humid - it's not been this humid here now for quite some time!

WOW some huge new cells erupted of France on a slightly more Northerly track than the previous ones...I am hoping that some how they will ride along the front more Northwards, rather than get pulled back by the H over the continent! MCS looks quite possible also I'd say as two rather beefy look cells (possible supercells) are getting pretty close.

[Andy Bown]

The NW detector has sferics over the extreme SE corner recently, can anyone confirm?

Also, and completely unforecast, it seems that the front is reinvigorating with a pulse of rain moving up over Somerset towards Bath/Bristol and edging into the West Wiltshire area. Not heavy at the moment but it is heavier further to the South.

Has the front really not moved any further East since this morning?