General Storm Discussion Thread

[Ross B]

Had a quite strong shower here not that long ago (Which seemingly formed out of nothing) No thunder/lightning though. Quite interesting to note despite being really quite breezy all day long? The wind has died back to nothing like it was yesterday. No more showers looking like they are on the horizon (For now)

Yep, I drove through that one on the M77 which was fun! The only thing missing from it was the thunder and lightning, visibility was very poor from the torrential rain. It's not really helped the dry conditions, it might make the grass a little greener for a few days...

[MP-R]

Quite a few heavy showers across parts of Scotland today - some of them accompanied by some thunder and lightning, particularly over western and northern areas of the country. Much further south and east towards north-east Midlands and eastern England, convection not really getting going looking at Satellite loop.

Though having looked at Sat24, there look like some monster storms going up over France and Spain at the moment - lots of clusters and spreading anvils, quite an impressive radar picture.

[twister2005]

If only they were heading this way !

[scud]

Though having looked at Sat24, there look like some monster storms going up over France and Spain at the moment - lots of clusters and spreading anvils, quite an impressive radar picture.

Funnily enough,i was just looking at the SAT24 radar before i saw this post and i can concur

[Joey.G]

Though having looked at Sat24, there look like some monster storms going up over France and Spain at the moment - lots of clusters and spreading anvils, quite an impressive radar picture.

I was just looking at that, loads of towers mushrooming up and anviling out all over Spain & Portugal. One week till im in the South of France with a car

[Lewis]

Another dissapointing day, i agree with Weather09 with regards the GFS over doing the moisture and cape values. They may have been there, but they was no trigger.

Hit 31c here today, it was very hot.

At around 5-6pm convection tried kicking off, but it couldn't really get going.

Not looking good with regards storms in the near future (next week) GFS showing the warmer moist air over the near continent getting shunted back into eastern europe with a less milder atlantic influence with some strong winds for us.

Regards

L

[sunny scunny]

Hit 31c here today, it was very hot.

It's very unlikely that the temp reached 31c in your area today.i'd say it's more likely that the max temp was around 28c.

[Lewis]

It's very unlikely that the temp reached 31c in your area today.i'd say it's more likely that the max temp was around 28c.

2 weather stations and a car temp gauge on the dash.

Car read 31c

Wether station number 1 (in the sun showed 33c)

Weather station number 2 (out of the sun) showing 30-31c

[GreyCrag]

The good news at least is that forcing of the LP system to the West of Ireland is prepping up the showers over Portugal and Spain at the moment, this moisture will run along the stream overnight and destabilise the airmass over the UK somewhat by tomorrow ahead of the LP's arrival.

It wont give the UK a outbreak of storms, but a good zonal area for deep convection to initiate and bursts of IC type lightning to be expected with this "plume" becoming embedded in the system. Its a low chance as the dry-air is also out over the Bay of Biscay somewhat hampering things, but if the cap can become eroded overnight then it's a heads up.

[Costa Del Fal]

the thing is Blizzards I have seen no TS forecast before over the yrs.....And they do catch the weather forecasts out from time to time....

not often but they do happen..

with any heavy rain I always keep a open mind and a eye on things..

Well we can hope but to see a drop of rain here would be a start.

[r6 steve]

im bored of this dry weather maybe being a biker i should be enjoying it but we need a bit of exciting weather i even got excited seeing a cumulus cloud.

its not very nice knowing to the south of us over France they had some great storms yesterday, i just wished they moved north!!

Just to see a raindrop is as rare as seeing rocking horse s**t lol

[Mad Murdoch]

Isle of Wight lightning Tracking 1 thunderstorm

http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm

[Coast]

Isle of Wight lightning Tracking 1 thunderstorm

Cheers Kel, seems to be somewhere near Caen, but the webcam shows it is a beautiful sunny day there!!! I'l keep an eye on that one in case it does a sneaky!

EDIT: It's directly over Le Mans

[r6 steve]

coast do you recon any could make it up over the channel? im guessing with really cold winter the channel will take that bit longer to warmup to let the storms breathe and grow!! not to mention

all the other factors!

i have just noticed the storm chance has increased for here only 6% later lol and also tomorrow now up to 30/35% but im willing to bet that it will change by then!

[Nick F]

coast do you recon any could make it up over the channel? im guessing with really cold winter the channel will take that bit longer to warmup to let the storms breathe and grow!! not to mention

all the other factors!

i have just noticed the storm chance has increased for here only 6% later lol and also tomorrow now up to 30/35% but im willing to bet that it will change by then!

About as much chance of storms towards Loire Valley now getting to the Channel as England has of winning the next world cup! Unfortunately the steering winds are blowing from the WSW - so no chance.

Looks to be dry for southern and southeastern areas until at least Thursday/Friday.

[r6 steve]

lets hope for the end of the week even if its just rain!!

[Coast]

About as much chance of storms towards Loire Valley now getting to the Channel as England has of winning the next world cup!

What Nick said!!!!! (but not as eloquently!!)

*** NexStorm TRAC Report generated 28/06/2010 13:45:39

Tracking 1 thunderstorms

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID N-3129 detected 11:31

Storm location bearing 157.9 dgr distance 181 mi

Last recorded activity 13:43

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend No change

Current strikerate 2/minute

Peak strikerate 8/minute

Total recorded strikes 153

Cloud-Ground strikes 44 - 28.76%

Intracloud strikes 109 - 71.24%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 5 - 3.27%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 39 - 25.49%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 77 - 50.33%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 32 - 20.92%

-------------------------------------------------------

*** TRAC Report end - NexStorm V1.7.0.2612:PCI

Heading very slowly in the wrong direction

[ZONE 51]

looks like the SE misses out again of anything..our turn will come ..i still give it 1% chance of a storm tonight somewere in se england as things change!

[Andy Bown]

looks like the SE misses out again of anything..our turn will come ..i still give it 1% chance of a

storm tonight somewere in se england as things change!

You talk about the SE missing out again as if it's a narrow miss, when in reality there is only a

slender chance of any place in the UK getting anything!

[Nick F]

12z GFS still showing some potential instability tonight across N Wales and N England, as cold front/upper trough destabilises warm moist Tm air advecting NE:

Some modest deep layer shear ahead of the upper trough may allow orgainsation into multicellur convective mode. So could see some excessive rainfall and small hail from the stronger cells.

[gpspete]

this link shows a fairly good accurate view of lightning it is Triangulated, collated and time stamped with gps or internet timing by a special program, from several boltek lightning detectors to try and make it more accurate

http://www.strikesta.../sslt/sslt.html

you can zoom in when you scroll over it

[Stuart]

I still got my hope up for storms for the end of the week as a less warm air move in from the west

[gpspete]

I have my suspicions that we are in for a long hot summer with perhaps the odd thundery day (night) thrown in perhaps with high pressure over the near continent we may get a long hot fetch from the south east bringing very hot weather and the odd continental storm with immbedded with in the 100f temperatures we are going to get.

Hopefully making this statement will make our weather behave in a more active mode and bring us a breakdown in this weather with lots of cold fronts hitting warm air an give us some nice thunderstorms like we seemed to have before global warming become all the rage

[Thundery wintry showers]

In addition to Nick F's post above, GFS 12Z introduces storm chances for Friday as the weakening frontal system moving east is projected to trigger some showers which may be heavy and thundery:

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100628/12/96/ukprec.png

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100628/12/96/ukstormrisk.png

At the moment CAPE and 850-500hPa lapse rates are projected to be highest over East Anglia, so perhaps the whole thing would have to shift west a little for more of the country to be in on the action:

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100628/12/96/ukcapeli.png

Personally I was amazed on the earlier runs to see no potential at all shown for Friday, but we also have to bear in mind that this is only one run and not necessarily indicative of a trend. Worth keeping an eye on nonetheless.

[anvilhead]

is that some sort of meso low heading into south wales at the moment ? looks like it from the radar