July CET

[reef]

Not sure Stu, it was very warm across the CET zone last night.

Its very suprising that its only down as 14.7C though. Certainly quite a large section of the CET zone was in the high-teens last night. It could well be one of those days which is adjusted upwards when the final figures come in.

[Gavin P]

19.2C to the 1st

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Possibly the peak value for the month achieved on the 1st

Your hunch was right Stu. Fell to 19.0 yesterday, despite the very warm night overnight 1st/2nd.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[summer blizzard]

Big drop in the CET to 18.3C, 1.8C above average.

http://hadobs.metoff..._info_mean.html

With the pattern we have coming up, the CET will likely be in the 15.5C to 17.5C range at mid month.

[TonyH]

Large fluctuations more likely with the month only a few days old i suppose. Looks like it will tail off further this week but not going below 17c.

Dont see it below 17c by mid month with a warm end to this week.

[BornFromTheVoid]

17.4C to the 5th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Hard to say what will happen this month. The cooler atlantic weather never seems to make it as far as the south east, despite models persistantly showing the opposite. So above average looks likely for the next 4 days at least, after that, the possibility of something a little cooler though still relatively close to average.

[summer blizzard]

17.4C to the 5th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Hard to say what will happen this month. The cooler atlantic weather never seems to make it as far as the south east, despite models persistantly showing the opposite. So above average looks likely for the next 4 days at least, after that, the possibility of something a little cooler though still relatively close to average.

Indeed, both GFS and ECWMF seem to be consistently putting too much strength in the Jet Stream, as a result they are not getting east of the UK, however they are consistently making further inroads, so the high to the east will break down soon, though it may take a few more attempts.

[BornFromTheVoid]

17.1C to the 6th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was a 15.7C. Minimum for today is 14.7C so a slight rise likely for today. Small rises up until friday, then some large increases looking likely for the weekend. >18C by the 11th possibly.

[Roger J Smith]

You've probably heard on the news about the extreme heat in the eastern U.S. which has seen highs near 40 C in the major cities, and overnight lows at record high values too (28-29 C in NYC last night). Structurally, this heat wave is more similar to 1911 than other major heat waves such as 1936 (when the ridge was very pumped up over the Midwest) or even 1995. I was anticipating this in my North American forecast research and noting the general similarity to 1911, which is why I speculated on the value that I chose for this month (18.4) -- also somebody has to keep an eye on Craig. June was starting to look like that sort of top-ten heat potential developing too. Anyway, it may not turn out as hot as 1911 in the UK but the "quiet sun" seems to be very capable of generating maximum heat in 2010, given the readings earlier in Pakistan and now these U.S. readings, which are within 2-3 F of all-time records at many stations (probably only 1936 will stay ahead of them). The 1936 analogue was quite a bit different across the Atlantic with a persistent trough and cool, showery regime for the UK, so possibly this outcome in 2010 will be a compromise of those two similar N American patterns. But don't be too surprised if some more extreme heat develops in the UK later in the summer towards end of July and early August, I think it could get as high as 34-35 C if not record-breaking then above average in terms of the annual extreme.

[Lettucing Gutted]

What are the odds of July finishing below 17C making July 2010 the 4th sub 17C July in a row? Also if July 2010 finises below 16.8C it will be the 12th consecutive summer month to be cooler than September 2006.

[Stu_London]

What are the odds of July finishing below 17C making July 2010 the 4th sub 17C July in a row? Also if July 2010 finises below 16.8C it will be the 12th consecutive summer month to be cooler than September 2006.

Going purely on the latest ensemble data, I would rate sub 17 as something like 50/50 currently. Sub 16.8 obviously slightly odds against.

17.3 to the 7th after yesterday came in at 18.0

Last night was 14.4C so another rise looks quite likely tomorrow. The heat for the weekend looks pretty localised to the south east, but warm nights in the CET zone will probably keep the upward trend going until at least Sunday before we start cool off again

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks to me like we will be at 18.0C by the 10th and then 18.1 or 18.2C by the 11th. A relative cool down seems likely after that, so somewhere between 17.4 and 17.8C by the 15th methinks.

[summer blizzard]

Looks to me as though the CET will be 17.4C to 17.6C by the 15th. A downward trend to under 17C looks likely by the 20th, however ECWMF and GFS then diverge.

Anywhere between 16C and 18C looks a possibility for the moment, so 25% chance of a fourth below average July.

[Kentish Kiwi]

Looks to me as though the CET will be 17.4C to 17.6C by the 15th. A downward trend to under 17C looks likely by the 20th, however ECWMF and GFS then diverge.

Anywhere between 16C and 18C looks a possibility for the moment, so 25% chance of a fourth below average July.

Have we had a below average July for the last three years in a row?!

[North-Easterly Blast]

Have we had a below average July for the last three years in a row?!

July 2009 was below the 1971-2000 average, but still close to the 1961-90 average.

July 2008 was below the 1971-2000 average, but above the 1961-90 average.

Julys 2008 and 2009 may have been slightly below the most recent average, but by historical standards they were both average or a shade above.

Only July 2007 was below the 1961-90 average in the last three years.

It is true that since the mid 90s despite most months in the year being mostly above average, July has seen more of a mix of temperatures. Obviously 2006 was the hottest ever, but there have also been some Julys that were below the 1961-90 average. 2007 was the last occasion, and before that in 2004, 2000 and 1998.

[Stu_London]

17.4 to the 8th

Not sure we will be hitting 18 over weekend especially as last night was slightly cooler than recent nights at 13.7

[BornFromTheVoid]

17.4 to the 8th

Not sure we will be hitting 18 over weekend especially as last night was slightly cooler than recent nights at 13.7

It will be a close call. The maxes for today are quite high and we only need today and tomorrow to average 20.2C to reach 18C.

I think we might just scrape it!

[BornFromTheVoid]

17.6C to the 9th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 19.1C. The minimum is down as 15.5C, so very mild. But it isn't looking like enough to reach 18C, might not even reach 17.9C! Seems the GFS temperatures have been more accurate lately, I've been over compensating the max temperatures a bit lately. Still yet to record and +20C day this year.

[damianslaw]

Suspect we will be somewhere close to the mid 17's come mid point of the month, maxima next week doesn't look particularly high but mins will continue to keep the CET values up.

At this stage a safe bet is an above average CET month.

Would be interesting to see what the Scottish CET value is so far, temps in much of the northern half of the country have been preety average so far.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Agreed.

For Ireland anyway, most stations are running above average but just by around half a degree in general. Definitely no threat of water shortages after today!

[BornFromTheVoid]

12z GFS is a little cooler than the last few runs and would have us at about 17.3C by the 15th.

[summer blizzard]

Both GFS and ECWMF have regressed and kept the negatively tilted Azores High with cool zonality taking hold, as i said before, if cold zonality does come for the last third of July, we could see a slightly below average July CET, similar to the last three years (well, actually July 2007 was well below at 15.2C).

[Derp Patrol]

I think the CET will end up at about 17C.. I'm not sure what the mean temp has been here this month so far, but I'm guessing about 21C, maybe higher.... the average here is 18.5C for July so it's been a good month here

[Stu_London]

Quite a cool week in the offing with Monday night looking notably cool for the time of the year.

A good chance that we could be sub 17 by the 18th of the month.

That would leave a below average month as a possibility, although I fancy we will see another warm spell in the final 3rd.

16.5C to 17.5C is probably the most likely at the moment. Monday night aside, very cool nights are pretty rare in high summer and if the sun comes out, it is generally warm, to there are limitations to the downside.

[BornFromTheVoid]

17.9C to the 10th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 20.4C, so first day over 20C of the year. Minimum is down as 14.9C for today, but maxes look lower than lately so probably not much change by tomorrows update.

[kold weather]

Very warm this week in the SE but it seems like its been balanced out somewhat by the northern part of the CET zone not being quite so warm....so whilst warm I wouldn't say the CET has been more then above average.

There is a synoptic change afoot now and the broad pattern is shifting to something close to average, if not a little below in the next 10 daysbut that being said I think the high pressure cell may well end up ridging stronger into the country then some of the models are expecting right now, and I think this month will probably end up something between 17-17.5C.