July CET

[Derp Patrol]

Very warm this week in the SE but it seems like its been balanced out somewhat by the northern part of the CET zone not being quite so warm....so whilst warm I wouldn't say the CET has been more then above average.

There is a synoptic change afoot now and the broad pattern is shifting to something close to average, if not a little below in the next 10 daysbut that being said I think the high pressure cell may well end up ridging stronger into the country then some of the models are expecting right now, and I think this month will probably end up something between 17-17.5C.

This is why I do not like using CET in itself to measure how good a summer is! I imagine the mean temp so far for some areas in the south is way over 20C, and some areas further north below 15C, it does not tell the picture of how good this month has been in the south and how poor it has been in the north.

[BornFromTheVoid]

17.9C to the 11th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 18.0C. Minimum for today is down as 12.9C but maxes look like being around 20C, possibly less, so a small drop by tomorrow.

[summer blizzard]

CET should have dropped back to around 17C by the 20th, however for the last third of July the models are still divided, even in the higher resolution timeframe, slightly above average is odds on.

[damianslaw]

This is why I do not like using CET in itself to measure how good a summer is! I imagine the mean temp so far for some areas in the south is way over 20C, and some areas further north below 15C, it does not tell the picture of how good this month has been in the south and how poor it has been in the north.

True words. The CET is an average mean temp for the whole of england and wales and because of this reason often masks the reality. So far this month we have seen a marked split between the very warm south and relatively near average north. This week is going to see a bit of a balancing act.

[Optimus Prime]

Going to be a little bit interesting to see whether July can beat the current warmest month since August 2006 which was September 2006 at 16.8c. August last year came close at 16.6c. Even so neither of those figures are all that warm really and should be easily beaten.

[BornFromTheVoid]

17.7C to the 12th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at a fairly low 15.3C, mainly thanks to a max of just 17.8C lowest, since the 14th June.

Minimum for today is down as 11.7C and maxes look like being around 20C so another small drop likely, probably 17.5C by tomorrow.

[Gavin P]

Unless the sun breaks through this afternoon, I can't see temps getting to 20c. 17-18c will be the max, I think. Its actually felt rather cold here this morning.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Seems you could be right, though we still have much of the day to go. Perhaps the GFS over doing the temperatures for once!?

[TonyH]

No signs of much change in the realistic time frame with average to warm rest of this week thanks to a S/SW flow, sunny intervals, and some very mild nights. It will be difficult for a sub 17c to occur.

[BornFromTheVoid]

17.5C to the 13th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Minimum for today down as a very mild 14.7C, and maxes look set to be around 20-21C, so probably not much change by tomorrow, though a small change of moving up to 17.6C. After that, it looks like a general cooling trend to the 18th, where we should be down to around 17.1C or so. Things might turn slightly warmer after that so probably around 17.2 by the 20th.

[BornFromTheVoid]

17.5C to the 14th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Minimum for today is 13.9C, but maxes look around the 19/20C mark so we may drop to 17.4C by tomorrow.

[summer blizzard]

CET should fall back to 17C over the next five days, afterward the models diverge with ECWMF keeping a consistent cool theme and GFS bringing back the warmth.

[summer blizzard]

CET stayed at 17.5C to the 15th, though given the model outputs for the next week or so, i would expect some drops from tuesday onwards, slightly below average is still on dependant on what happens in the last few days of the month, though i would rule out a CET value above the current 17.5C.

[BornFromTheVoid]

17.4C to the 16th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at 15.9C. Minimum for today is 11.3C, so with maxes around 19C, will probably be down to 17.2C by tomorrow.

[Milhouse]

17.4C to the 16th

http://hadobs.metoff..._info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at 15.9C. Minimum for today is 11.3C, so with maxes around 19C, will probably be down to 17.2C by tomorrow.

Still a fair few ups and downs before the month is out i reckon. A slight rise Sunday to Tuesday followed by a fall again during next week should see us at about 17.2c going into the final week. Models are pointing at a warmer last week to the month so above 17c looks likely at this stage, which would be the warmest since September 2006.

[Kentish Kiwi]

From what I'm reading of the situation, my guess of 16.9 may end substantially too low (ie something more around 17.5), with the next few days likely to be around 17.5(?) and then a possible warm end to the month...

[The watcher]

At the minute it looks like anything between 16.8c and 17.5c could be spot on.

[Stu_London]

17.2C to the 18th

This week looks neutral with a warm start being cancelled out by a cooler spell midweek before signs of a slight warm up at the weekend.

the landing zone for the whole of the month is probably in the range of 16.7C-17.7C

[damianslaw]

17.2C to the 18th

This week looks neutral with a warm start being cancelled out by a cooler spell midweek before signs of a slight warm up at the weekend.

the landing zone for the whole of the month is probably in the range of 16.7C-17.7C

Yes it looks like the locally very warm start in the SE will be cancelled out by some quite cool weather by Friday as we see some cold uppers. BBC suggesting 20 degree max in Londo in Friday and only mid-high teens elsewhere preety poor for late July.

Anyone else spot the sub 528 dam cell in the Norweigen Sea on Wednesday suggesting come very cold upper air is descending down in the northerly flow later this week.

[summer blizzard]

Looks like GFS has won with the ECWMF completely backing off a heatwave. With this in mind, and a front over England on Friday, i do not think the final CET will be any higher than it is now, though only a 25% chance it will drop as far as 16.4C (below average).

[Stu_London]

CET to the 19th - 17.3C

Small rise likely for the 20th on the back of a warm night, then totals could start to fall back again.

[coram]

CET to the 19th - 17.3C

Small rise likely for the 20th on the back of a warm night, then totals could start to fall back again.

Stu,

Do you think that if there is an adjustment at the end of the month, that it will be upwards or downwards? It seems to me that when there are cold nights that the adjustment is downwards, and therefore, because there have only been warm nights this month, the adjustment would be more likely to be upwards. What do you think?

[Stu_London]

Stu,

Do you think that if there is an adjustment at the end of the month, that it will be upwards or downwards? It seems to me that when there are cold nights that the adjustment is downwards, and therefore, because there have only been warm nights this month, the adjustment would be more likely to be upwards. What do you think?

upward adjustments are just about unheard of as far as Hadley goes. I do recall some (not many) months, where there has been no adjustment - these might tie in with mild/warm nights.

[The PIT]

Could be some interesting variations across the country at the end of this month. We were following CET pretty closely but cooler air has pushed us back down towards average.

[The PIT]

Back up to 17.4C to the 20th.