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Hurricane Alex


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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

Latest forecast show's the storm making a second landfall late Wed/Early Tues as a Cat 1 Hurricane.

So looks like the first system is going to be Hurricane! Exciting!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

They seem to be saying that what the update contains is pretty much a guess and best estimate. I am not sure I've heard them say that they can't reliably find the centre before !.

We really need recon, forgot to say recon is on it's way and is roughly half way there so not much longer too wait.

"THE CYCLONE COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH AND ALEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME BECOME A

HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY

FORECAST IS A BLEND OF BOTH THE LGEM AND DECAY SHIPS MODELS.

SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE A RELIABLE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION

CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290 DEGREES AT 9

KNOTS"

Edited by Iceberg
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Any update from recon?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

Wow, definitely a strong Tropical Storm now.

000

URNT12 KNHC 260857

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010

A. 26/08:30:00Z

B. 16 deg 45 min N

085 deg 36 min W

C. 925 mb 739 m

D. 34 kt

E. 088 deg 52 nm

F. 191 deg 38 kt

G. 088 deg 52 nm

H. EXTRAP 1006 mb

I. 21 C / 770 m

J. 22 C / 765 m

K. 22 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 13 / 9

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF305 0201A CYCLONE OB 12

MAX FL WIND 46 KT NE QUAD 06:07:20Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

MAX FL TEMP 23 C 087 / 52 NM FROM FL CNTR

I think they have recorded 45KT.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

Not as of yet. The intermediate advisory at 7 kept Alex at 45mph but i think given the level of convection and the general structure of the storm i expected higher. Perhaps they're waiting for word from recon and will put it in the 10pm advisory.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Looks like they were a bit conservative in the latest update. On the first pass so far into the centre we have sub 1000mb and still falling.

180700 1746N 08704W 9244 00719 0030 +221 +211 150020 021 027 000 03

180730 1745N 08706W 9252 00709 0030 +220 +215 144016 017 030 000 03

180800 1744N 08707W 9244 00716 0031 +219 +215 138018 019 031 000 03

180830 1743N 08709W 9249 00714 0029 +222 +213 125018 019 031 000 03

180900 1742N 08710W 9248 00714 0029 +225 +211 129019 020 031 000 00

180930 1741N 08711W 9248 00712 0029 +225 +211 133019 019 030 000 00

181000 1740N 08712W 9248 00714 0026 +230 +211 128019 019 030 000 00

181030 1739N 08713W 9246 00715 0026 +231 +210 124020 021 029 000 00

181100 1737N 08714W 9245 00715 0025 +235 +208 122021 021 030 000 03

181130 1736N 08715W 9248 00712 0025 +238 +204 121023 024 032 000 00

181200 1735N 08716W 9248 00712 0024 +243 +199 122023 023 033 000 00

181230 1733N 08717W 9245 00713 0021 +244 +201 111020 021 034 000 03

181300 1732N 08718W 9252 00706 0022 +240 +196 114022 024 036 000 00

181330 1730N 08718W 9250 00707 0020 +246 +183 114025 026 039 000 00

181400 1729N 08719W 9248 00707 0021 +238 +181 116030 031 039 000 03

181430 1728N 08720W 9247 00708 0022 +228 +192 114030 034 037 000 03

181500 1726N 08720W 9248 00704 0023 +210 +209 113036 036 034 002 00

181530 1725N 08721W 9246 00702 9990 +192 +999 104034 035 039 003 01

181600 1723N 08722W 9250 00696 9990 +194 +999 106031 032 037 005 05

181630 1722N 08722W 9248 00694 9990 +194 +999 116029 030 037 003 05

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Lowest looks like 998.7 so far , but they are still having a good look.

Those wind values (if accurate) are amazing, the 46 and 67 are pretty much your surface winds in kts.

Worth keeping an eye on this recon.

Alot of those 999 will be missing data my the way, but there is still a large 1000-999 or so centre

182100 1710N 08720W 9244 00677 9989 +203 +203 269011 013 033 007 05

182130 1709N 08720W 9239 00680 9987 +199 +199 258015 016 030 003 05

182200 1707N 08720W 9250 00674 9994 +200 +200 252016 017 032 004 01

182230 1706N 08719W 9242 00689 9997 +216 +216 247017 018 029 000 00

182300 1704N 08719W 9253 00682 0005 +210 +210 247016 017 032 001 00

182330 1703N 08719W 9248 00693 0009 +207 +207 268013 015 030 003 00

182400 1701N 08719W 9244 00696 9990 +202 +999 272014 016 032 007 05

182430 1700N 08718W 9273 00661 9990 +196 +999 244018 025 035 007 01

182500 1658N 08717W 9212 00720 9990 +193 +999 270031 038 041 010 01

182530 1657N 08716W 9257 00690 9990 +192 +999 248035 037 046 012 01

182600 1656N 08715W 9237 00707 9990 +181 +999 219053 059 067 034 05

I can only say wow at those wind readings.

Looks like a very large sub 1000mb pressure zone now with strengthening winds, the centre is still huge but is getting better organised.

Such a large centre will help it as it passes over land, but it's still not beyond the realms that this might be a boardline hurricane before hitting the Yucatan, lots of 50-60kts surface winds (some of them rain contaminated but not all of them surely)

182700 1653N 08714W 9245 00705 9990 +179 +999 215044 046 066 045 05

182730 1652N 08714W 9251 00707 9990 +179 +999 221049 051 060 037 05

182800 1651N 08715W 9257 00697 9990 +179 +999 223051 052 062 034 05

182830 1650N 08716W 9235 00717 9990 +180 +999 222053 053 059 029 05

182900 1649N 08716W 9251 00703 9990 +180 +999 225052 052 056 018 05

182930 1648N 08717W 9245 00709 9990 +180 +999 230048 048 055 019 01

183000 1647N 08718W 9251 00704 9990 +180 +999 233047 048 059 022 05

183030 1646N 08719W 9246 00710 9990 +180 +999 237045 045 056 025 01

183100 1646N 08719W 9250 00709 9990 +180 +999 237043 044 058 026 05

183130 1645N 08720W 9246 00714 9990 +180 +999 237040 041 056 027 05

183200 1644N 08721W 9248 00713 9990 +178 +999 241041 041 052 030 01

183230 1642N 08722W 9248 00715 9990 +175 +999 251038 039 057 025 01

183300 1641N 08723W 9244 00718 9990 +176 +999 248038 040 058 026 05

183330 1640N 08723W 9244 00720 9990 +180 +999 248040 041 056 032 01

183400 1639N 08724W 9251 00712 9990 +179 +999 250039 040 053 030 05

183430 1638N 08725W 9245 00721 9990 +180 +999 249038 038 051 021 05

183500 1637N 08726W 9246 00722 9990 +180 +999 246038 039 049 017 01

183530 1636N 08726W 9250 00719 9990 +185 +999 246038 039 047 013 01

183600 1635N 08727W 9247 00723 9990 +187 +999 247038 038 045 008 01

183630 1634N 08728W 9246 00725 9990 +187 +999 246038 038 044 008 01

Edited by Iceberg
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

REcon suggests Alex is south of the forecast track at the moment, which means a landfall on Belize is pretty much certain...

Models stil ladjusting southwards, looks like a S.Mexico landfall now given the trends that have occured, as expected the NHC track is slowly adjusting southwards...

Anyway recon finding some decent pressures, lowest so far is 998.7mbs as Iceberg said, though quite a lot of reports of 999mbs. System still looks like it may have a slightly messy circulation but the presentation is pretty explosive, if it had another 12hrs I'd have no doubt it could be a hurricane.

Ironcally its probably better for its chances though if Alex doesn't try to develop an inner core, because a weak inner core would probably really struggle to redevelop quickly enough in the BoC with a system that has such a large broad low...Its easier in this set-up for it to build a fresh inner core than to try and fill the gaps in a ruined core...

Finally, NHC are going up this system to 50kts based on latest recon next advisory...I'll update again later tonight on my thoughts.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Definately, going from the vortex taken, it looks just shy of 55Kts for the surface, so somewhere between 50-55kts for the next advisory unless stronger flight winds of 65Kts+ are found.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010

A. 26/18:20:40Z

B. 17 deg 11 min N

087 deg 21 min W

C. 925 mb 669 m

D. 39 kt

E. 007 deg 18 nm

F. 175 deg 43 kt

G. 058 deg 74 nm

H. EXTRAP 998 mb

I. 24 C / 766 m

J. 23 C / 760 m

K. 21 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 134 / 09

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF302 0301A ALEX OB 07

MAX FL WIND 43 KT NE QUAD 17:52:20Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 59 KT S QUAD 18:26:10Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

MAX FL TEMP 25 C 008 / 19 NM FROM FL CNTR

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Well they put the 18z best track estimate at 50kts Iceberg and given the 59kts found at flight level unless something higher is found they will probably go with 50kts and 998mbs...

Strengthening at a decent clip at the moment though not quite upto RI levels, but its to be expected that its strengthening, you don't get such explosive convection and not see strengthening, at least upto say 60-70kts, afterwards the sturcture does tend to make more of a difference...

Just good to have something to track in the Atl basin again, probably one of many.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

FWIW recon just found a pressure of 995.2mbs, which is a big drop and probably not far off from rapid strengthening occuring right now...I wouldn't rule out getting to 55-60kts before landfall...the Sat.presentation is VERY impressive right now with a big circular ball, with some very deep convection aloft right now and it probably is getting help from the curvature of land...

Make no doubt about it this system would likely be a hurricane if it had another 6-9hrs offshore, as it is probably will be inland in about 3hrs time, I'd guess at 60kts given the explosive development that is occuring right now. Landfall should occur in N.Belize with recon showing the cente rhas wobbled WNW/NW in the last hour.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Latest D: surface estimate from the Vortex recon is 56Kts so certainly at 55kts atm.Vortex Data Message

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000

URNT12 KNHC 261919

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010

A. 26/19:08:30Z

B. 17 deg 19 min N

087 deg 28 min W

C. 925 mb 655 m

D. 56 kt

E. 182 deg 29 nm

F. 237 deg 52 kt

G. 181 deg 26 nm

H. EXTRAP 996 mb

I. 19 C / 755 m

J. 24 C / 764 m

K. 22 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 9

O. 0.02 / 4 nm

P. AF302 0301A ALEX OB 09

MAX FL WIND 52 KT S QUAD 18:59:50Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

Edited by Iceberg
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Posted
  • Location: Boston, Lincolnshire, UK
  • Location: Boston, Lincolnshire, UK
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS

ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST. ALEX HAS

INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. HOWEVER...ALEX SHOULD

DECREASE IT FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE

CENTER OF ALEX WILL REACH THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. ALEX

IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY

MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ALEX MOVES

INLAND LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER

LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM

PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

Still 45 MPH.

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

That one was from the update at 7pm. We should have the next update in an hour or so and then we can find out what the NHC has made of Alex.

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

Up to 65mph.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 262031

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

400 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS A STRONGER ALEX...WEATHER DETERIORATING

FAST IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.3N 87.8W

ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF

MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN

* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF

HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST. ALEX IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS

TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE CENTER. NO

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE ALEX MOVES INLAND

...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER

YUCATAN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ALEX MOVES OVER THE

GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS

996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF

4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...MUCH

OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE

RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BELIZE

AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. WINDS WILL

BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT IN THE BAY ISLANDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST

OF HONDURAS.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Bursting towards a landfall means it will probably strengthen onto landfall, which probably means winds in the 55-60kts are quite possible and it may well make landfall just shy of hurricane status...quite an impressive climb.

Usually bursting storms tend to hold onto thier energy across land very well becuase it means the atmosphere is already unstable and its far easier to keep the energy going in that way. So whilst it will weaken the system may do surprisingly well inland as long as it doesn't spend too much time inland...

Once it emerges conditions aloft look decent so I'd expect strengthening and it probably has the time to become a hurricane before a second landfall. Track to me looks like a WNW as an upper trough digs down from the NW states and slightly weaknes the upper high pressure ridge which induces a very slight northerly lift of the track towards a WNW/NW direction for about 24-36hrs before the upper high exerts its strength again and bends the system back towards the west.

How strong it becomes really does depend on how much latitude the system can gain over the next 36hrs or so, there is a small chance it never even makes it into the BoC if it stays on its current heading...

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

One quick last post...

Structure has improved yet further in the last few hours, probably is undergoing a brief phase of RI in the final hours before landfall as the land fricition helps to tighten up the system.

Dvorak estimates are now at 65kts, so the NHC will at least raise the system upto 60kts next advisory if its not inland and there is a chancer they may even go to hurricane strength, though I think they may well favour going upto 60kts given its more or less inland.

Very impressive system, considering it was only progged to be 40kts and LF according to the NHC, its got a good deal stronger then that, which is what happens when you have good conditions aloft and explosive heat content.

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

Alex had made landfall overnight, now crossing the Yucatan Peninsula as a Tropical Storm, but soon expected to downgrade to a depression (by next advisory at 1pm uk time).

He looks to move into the gulf of mexico late today where he will rapidy develop to a Category 2 Hurricane before making his second landfall in the North of Mexico late Thursday, the track shows that he could cross over into the the Pacific Ocean as a depression, if this happens it could develop rapidly again as a Pacific Storm, most likely to Major Hurricane status as conditions seem favourable.

Very intestesting first storm!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Very much rob, I had a quick look at Alex earlier and thought he seemed to look very good for a cane over land.

Then saw this update from NHC 30 mins ago. Which talked about eye features, more like a hurricane, banding features etc.

"RATHER THAN BECOMING DISORGANIZED AFTER MOVING INLAND...RADAR AND

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS ACTUALLY BECOME MUCH BETTER

DEFINED. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN BELIZE RADAR DATA AND

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED

SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF -80C AND COLDER TOPS

ENCIRCLING THE RADAR CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN

REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE

DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICTIONS OF

ALEX LOOKS MORE LIKE A HURRICANE THAN A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM."

It's clear that thanks to it's initial size and make up Alex is not starving as he crosses the Yucatan, all it's rally doing is tightening him up ready for entry into the GOM. NHC have duly raised there estimate to a CAT 2 storm and a CAT 3 is not beyond the realms of possibility either. Having the first named storm of the season a Hurricane and possibly a major one.

Path is still highly debatable with two distinct camps as NHC go on to say.

Heres the Radar pic with the eye feature at 18.3N 89.5W

post-6326-078340700 1277631021_thumb.jpg

post-6326-079086800 1277631238_thumb.gif

Edited by Iceberg
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Usually bursting storms tend to hold onto thier energy across land very well becuase it means the atmosphere is already unstable and its far easier to keep the energy going in that way. So whilst it will weaken the system may do surprisingly well inland as long as it doesn't spend too much time inland...

Well this is what I posted last night, I expected Alex to hold its energy but I'll be frank and say I didn't expect the structure of Alex to carry on and tighten a good 6hrs into land. This is a *very good* sign for what will happen when it gets out to water, with it still having plenty of energy and the core being small (though the actual system is quite large) I'd expect this to ramp up quite nicely.

How strong will it get, I see no reason why we don't get upto cat-2 as the NHC have called for, esp if it does take the more northerly route. Conditions aloft are very condusive with a strong upper high aloft over the sytstem finally vertically stacked with the system and some great upper divergence over the system. Heat content should support a cat-2/3 quite readily throughout a good chunk of the basin, therefore I wouldn't rule out a major hurricane at all...

Models still flip-flopping all over the place with some real uncertainty over what exactly Alex does. For now it is tracking just shy of NW across Yucatan at a decent clip. It is taking more or less the shortest route to water with the convective burst last night proving a good indcator of direction of movement...I'm becoming much more concerned about a Texas threat now, quite a few of the big models are now rather close to Texas and the GFS/CMC are in fact not even that far away from LA and the big oil spill...a large major hurricane (which is possible...) would certainly test out some of the theory of what a hurricane would do to the oil spill. That being said I'd still suggest the most likely option is njust south of the Mexico border, possibly a MW/TX hit which would mean Brownsville is at threat. The best case for land is if this system hits in a similar area to Bret in 1999.

My own personal analog would be the June 1921 hurricane, look it up and see how close it has been to Alex thus far, that one was just shy of cat-2 at 90mph...

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

May be worth noting that if Alex reaches hurricane strenth, it will be the first A storm to reach hurricane strength since 2004. Co-incidentally, that storm was also called Alex and reached Category 3.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN

HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN

SOLUTION...BUT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE WILL BE REQUIRED TO

CONFIRM THAT TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF

AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE

CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. NOTE...IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE

MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5

DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.

:lol: :D

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