Hurricane Alex

[Paranoid]

Up to 60mph now.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 281443

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 12

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

1000 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.3N 91.7W

ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WNW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO

ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF

BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST

OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO

GRANDE

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS

BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. ALEX IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE

ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA THROUGH

TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER

MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH

FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HEAVY RAINS COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN

VERACRUZ...AND SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[Iceberg]

Alex is suffering a bit atm from shear and associated lack of convection to the north and west. Also the lack of any really heavy precip is preventing pressure from dropping too much.

He should get a bit of diurnal strenghtening later once the heat of the day has started to pass.

A quick update re path, Corpus Chrisi looks to be the main area near to the Texas boarder.

Edited June 28, 2010 by Iceberg

[kold weather]

Pressure and structure looks pretty stable after a brief increase of shear. The LLC and MLC are slightly decoupled at the moment due to the NW shear but this is something that should decrease as the system starts to move away from Mexico. Shear values have been dropping at the rate of 25-35kts in 24hrs to the north so that would be suggestive that Alex should move into a more condusive region.

Recon has struggled to find anything to really justify 50kts recently according to recon, with pressures holding between 991-989 in general with small variations but not enough to suggest any major changes have been occuring. Surface winds generally suggests 45kts but then again there was a 66kt flight level wind earlier in the afternoon before the shear hit.

As stated earlier shear values are dropping very rapidly further north. Otherwise conditions aloft are pretty favourable for strengthening, and in some cases very favourable. Heat content rapidly increases as the system gets further north and the slow motion of the system is probably not helping its cause right now either. The inflow channels are taking drier air from both Mexico and Yucatan which is probably capping how strong the convection can get at the moment. Conditions should improve once this system reaches something like 20-21N and the system finally starts to get caught in firmer steering currents. I'd go for something in the range of 85-95kts right now, and I don't think a major can be ruled out though the exacts of the track are rather vital in that respect.

As for the track, models coming into better agreement now with a NNW motion followed by a bend back to the NW and eventually WNW in the next 36-84hrs or so. One uncertainty is just how fast the system moves. If it takes long enough to get moving there is a risk another upper trough will cause the upper ridge to weaken again and the system may gain latitude again...but for now thats an issue. Looks to me the idea of something between Texas and Mexico border is still looks the one to back, after a slightly more unstable set of models yesterday.

I'd imagine the system will be very similar to Hurricane Dolly from 2008 in terms of landfall location and possibly landfall strength.

[Gray-Wolf]

Looking at the moisture pouring off the north of Yucatan atm I wonder if we'll find the center form just off the NW tip of Yucatan?( and not down the coast where the system first popped off the land).

With the blob already in the Gulf (to the NW of yucatan) and the stuff about to find itself in the Gulf I wonder whether it'll drop off the surface pressure in that area enough to jump the centre up to the NE of the centres present location?

Edited June 28, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[Cookie]

Voluntary relocation for South Padre Island residents

South Padre Island Mayor is suggesting a voluntary relocation for residents.

Mayor Bob Pinkerton made the announcement Monday morning.

A hurricane watch in under effect for the coasts of South Texas and south of the border in Tamaulipas.

Tropical Storm Alex is expected to strengthen into a Category 2 Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Current projections show it is currently expected to make landfall south of Matamoros around 7 a.m. Thursday.

Mayor Pinkerton called Alex a "potentially dangerous storm" and urged citizens to stay informed through the media.

South Padre Island crews are already moving trash barrels, mobimats and flag signs off the beaches.

Cameron County Judge Carlos Cascos ordered a voluntary evaction of RVs and other high-profile vehicles from Island Blanc and Andy Bowie Parks on South Padre Island.

County officials are already preparing by filling sandbags and pre-positioning

http://www.valleycentral.com/news/story.aspx?id=475811

[summer blizzard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ft-l.jpg

Looking very messy, but once all the convection joins together, rapid development may occur.

[Cookie]

A Few Stats

Last June Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin: Allison 1995

Last June major Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin: Alma 1966.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

[summer blizzard]

Going to spin up very rapidly once convection wraps around!

[Iceberg]

Alex is good much better this morning compared to Yesterday. Some deep convection now within the centre and fully around it, this seems to be allowing pressure to fall again down to 985mb see below for the latest recon pass.

As NHC state this is very low pressure for a none hurricane and winds atm do not match the pressure.This might be due to the size of the system which is large for a TS and the extent of the TS winds.

** just added some more recon which shows flight winds above 70Kts, upto 73kts, using the 10% rule this would equate to 65Kt surface winds and hurricane status, but personally I would be more conservative and say that 75-80kt flight winds are needed, still that will be enough to increase Alex to 60Kts just shy of a HURRICANE.

Also interesting from the NHC is the almost due north progression of Alex atm, this will change,but the question is when ?.

The chances of a Texas landfall continue to increase as it heads north atm.

BTW Alex does look messy, but thats more to do with the high WV and instability and quite outstanding outflow he has always had.

"ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ALEX CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE

RAGGED-LOOKING...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE

THAT THE STORM IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL

WINDS WERE 68 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED WINDS WERE 53 KT.

AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOWED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

HAS DROPPED TO 985 MB...A RATHER LOW VALUE FOR A TROPICAL STORM.

BASED ON THE WIND MEASUREMENTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55

KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE

STORM HAS DRIFTED MOSTLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4. "

052200 2115N 09154W 9247 00588 9885 +235 +215 309031 032 037 001 00

052230 2117N 09153W 9244 00586 9880 +230 +216 316028 030 034 001 00

052300 2118N 09152W 9244 00580 9873 +231 +218 318024 026 032 001 00

052330 2119N 09151W 9245 00574 9868 +228 +219 310017 019 026 000 03

052400 2120N 09150W 9245 00570 9863 +231 +220 302015 015 024 000 00

052430 2121N 09149W 9244 00567 9858 +232 +221 296013 014 022 000 03

052500 2123N 09148W 9249 00557 9855 +228 +222 286007 011 021 000 00

052530 2124N 09147W 9244 00561 9853 +226 +223 288003 005 022 001 00

052600 2125N 09147W 9244 00559 9851 +227 +222 133002 003 024 000 03

052630 2127N 09146W 9243 00559 9849 +225 +222 131005 007 021 000 00

052700 2128N 09144W 9246 00554 9847 +225 +222 135013 016 021 002 00

052730 2129N 09143W 9246 00552 9847 +220 +220 135022 024 026 000 00

052800 2130N 09142W 9247 00554 9851 +216 +216 138028 030 030 003 00

052830 2131N 09141W 9247 00558 9856 +211 +211 139032 034 035 004 00

052900 2132N 09140W 9247 00562 9859 +219 +214 139037 039 038 003 00

052930 2133N 09139W 9248 00566 9866 +216 +210 140043 046 047 005 00

053000 2134N 09137W 9248 00572 9875 +198 +198 141057 060 052 009 00

053030 2135N 09136W 9248 00575 9882 +192 +192 141063 067 057 014 03

053100 2136N 09135W 9251 00576 9888 +190 +190 136068 068 061 022 03

053130 2137N 09134W 9246 00590 9897 +189 +189 138068 069 062 020 00

053200 2138N 09133W 9246 00596 9905 +189 +189 141069 073 055 010 00

053230 2139N 09132W 9248 00603 9913 +193 +189 137069 070 053 012 00

053300 2140N 09131W 9255 00601 9920 +187 +187 131066 067 055 025 03

053330 2141N 09130W 9244 00614 9927 +175 +175 135066 068 058 037 03

053400 2142N 09128W 9244 00620 9934 +170 +170 138068 068 056 035 03

053430 2144N 09127W 9243 00625 9938 +176 +176 142067 069 054 022 03

Anyway well done Alex as this is a fantastic TS/Cane to have for the start of the season.

[Iceberg]

Even more 70+Kt winds found all just shy of hurricane status, still Alex is intensifying atm and with quite a substantial set of strong winds to the NE Recon *might* just find strong enough winds before they got back to base, regardless of this a Hurricane in the next few hrs looks likely.

[Iceberg]

Forgot to add that recon went back to base after that fly by, so no more recon until lunchtime.

[Iceberg]

Alex is on the verge of being the first season Hurricane.

The latest update from the NHC is below and talks about an eye like feature forming.

Also concerningly is the path and current direction of Alex which is NOT what the models are predicting, NHC go on to say that they think the more northward motion will continue for another 6-12 hrs. Anyway 60 kts now just shy of hurricane and still strengthening.

Once the eye develops over the next couple of hrs there is the *possibility of some rather more rapid intensification occuring rather then the gradual, possibly a 25mb fall over 24 hrs. Recon will be increasingly interesting starting in a couple of hrs.

A 0525Z AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FLIGHT FOUND TWO PEAK 925 MB

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KT LOCATED ABOUT 20 AND 45 NMI NORTHEAST

OF THE CENTER. RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS ALONG THAT LEG WERE

AROUND 57 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 985 MB. SINCE THAT

RECON FLIGHT...DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE

SMALL DEVELOPING EYE HAS ALSO INCREASED. SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB.

BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET

AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/07 BASED ON RECON AND MICROWAVE

SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL

GUIDANCE SUITE...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS...HAS SHIFTED

SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALEX HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF MAKING ANY

SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PROGRESS LIKE THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFS...AND

GFDL MODELS HAVE BEEN AND ARE STILL FORECASTING TO OCCUR. THE

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...ON BUILDING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALEX OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IS

EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR

WESTWARD TRACK WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONGLY ELONGATED IN A

NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION. THIS IS A GOOD SHORT-TERM MOTION INDICATOR

...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION VECTOR WOULD KEEP ALEX ALONG OR

JUST OUTSIDE THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SINCE THERE

IS NO OBVIOUS PHYSICAL JUSTIFICATION TO SHIFT THE TRACK SOUTHWARD

AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE

PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

MICROWAVE DATA FROM 0114Z SSMIS AND 0243Z AMSU OVERPASSES INDICATED

A SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE VERY NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL RECON CENTER

POSITION. THIS INDICATES THAT ALEX HAS A NEARLY VERTICALLY ALIGNED

INNER CORE CIRCULATION...WHICH WOULD FAVOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION

GIVEN THE VERY CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS THAT

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL IN

ABOUT 48 HOURS.

[Iceberg]

Recon are back in and have recorded the following pressure of 982.8mb on the first pass so approx 3mb lower than earlier.

112800 2223N 09233W 8428 01350 9829 +200 +184 173011 013 019 004 03

112830 2223N 09235W 8430 01346 9828 +199 +187 189005 008 021 003 00

Alex is still intensifying.

For info

Cat 1 is roughly 987mb

Cat 2 roughly 975mb

Cat 3 roughly 960mb

Cat 4 roughly 948mb

The above is of course very rough as it depends on the gradient etc and Alex does not have a big gradient due it's large pressure size.

[dallas]

Ref the direction Alex is likely to take, I imagine the concern if it keeps a northly direction is that oil spill?

[Iceberg]

Ref the direction Alex is likely to take, I imagine the concern if it keeps a northly direction is that oil spill?

The oil spill should be safe now, there was a real danger a few days ago that it might end up that far north, but now northern Texas is probably as far north as it might realistically go, thankfully !

[dallas]

Good news for them on what could be a busy season, notice a few tropical waves around the Atlantic at the moment

[Iceberg]

Alex is slowly starting to get it's inner centre/eye sorted out.

The latest Vortex shows that this is starting to happen, with a stronger eye wall developing, the temperature differential is starting to increase as well now 3C (a weak eye should have a 5C or so temp difference between I and J.)

Sorting out the eye is not a straight forward thing for a Hurricane to do, Alex might or might not manage to do it, if it doesn't then pressure decreases will be minimal from now on, if it can do it a good job of gaining a strong walled eye then we get in to the possibilities of RI.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010

A. 29/11:29:00Z

B. 22 deg 22 min N

092 deg 37 min W

C. 850 mb 1276 m

D. 57 kt

E. 087 deg 19 nm

F. 145 deg 70 kt

G. 063 deg 68 nm

H. 983 mb

I. 17 C / 1521 m

J. 20 C / 1525 m

K. 18 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 0 nm

P. AF306 0801A ALEX OB 05

MAX FL WIND 70 KT NE QUAD 11:05:30Z

MAX FL TEMP 21 C 089 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR

RADAR SHOWS PARTIAL EYEWALL NE AND MULTIPLE THIN SPIRAL BANDS

[Iceberg]

Just having a quick look and we have been monitoring this system on NETW since the 12th of June (half a month now ! )

We had 92L which developed well as one of the most easterly features in June.

It then hit a wall of shear before entering the Caribbean.

The circulation around 92L slowly died from the Shear but the convection and instability of 92L created 93L which eventually turned into TD1 and now Alex.

Amazing really how long these things take to play out.

I would say though that the likes of ECM had Alex as a hurricane in the GOM 8-9 days out.

[dallas]

Also have not heard any issues with saharian dust yet

[kold weather]

Its getting there Iceberg, convection blowing up over the center and there does seem to be a developing eyewall...that being said the system does still seem to be lopsided which isn't quite the apperence that would suggest big strengthening bursts but rather steady strengthening. I'd imagine the new burst will go some way to sorting out that issue. In its current state a max strength probably would be 75-80kts, if it can sort out a proper eye and tuck itself towards the convection a touch further, then really I think major hurricane is still very possible given it still has plenty of time over water.

Probably a matter of hours till a hurricane, recon may well find high enough winds next pass...interestingly a ship got 68mph confirming it was 70mph on the last advisory.

Track looks like being into N.Mexico still, close to the border, probably 50-70 miles south of the border, more then enough for the populated regions to get some strong gusts, esp if this thing does get towards the upper reaches of what is possible. Track will likely now bend back towards the west over the next 48hrs as the upper ridge builds in and I think that is being reflected in the system already as we are seeing some slight bendback occuring already with estimated motion recently of about 325. If I had to make a punt I'll go for a landfall of 90kts with a peak of 95kts, just shy of major status...but I'd say a 30% chance of a major at this stage.

[Iceberg]

I believe thats this lot of recon finished and it didn't find anything better than at the start 4 hrs ago.

Min pressure 982 max flight winds 73, but only 68kt in the last run just now.

Alex is looking alot better on sat, but seems to be struggling with too much thin banding to form the eye effectively IMO.

It might and should overcome this eventually, but with a faster forward speed its will start running out of time.

Pressure is a gradual(relatively speaking) gradient due to the thin banding so winds are not responding as well as they would normally, maybe this is something the tropical models picked up on, when they keep him as a strong end TS.

[Cookie]

Only a matter of Time before this becomes a Hurricane Imo

[Paranoid]

Alex's satellite presentation has improved over the past hour or so, probably because of the diurnal heating effect. It's now daylight in that part of the world so i would be quite surprised if Alex isn't upgraded to a hurricane by the next full advisory, especially given the unusually low pressure for a TS.

[ZONE 51]

intellicast sat great site here can add layers/zoom..

[Iceberg]

Still stable and still not quite yet a hurricane.

I believe the current flight is actually still going, although they must be finished now as they have been in there for over 6 hrs.

Slightly bigger temp differential now 5C which might indicate the eye wall is finally getting formed. Certainly in the north there is a good wall but south is still the killer where it's leaking pressure all the way out.

Without better recon I can't see how they can upgrade it. BTW visually Alex is getting better.

A. 29/17:16:20Z

B. 22 deg 51 min N

093 deg 29 min W

C. 850 mb 1270 m

D. 48 kt

E. 311 deg 70 nm

F. 061 deg 50 kt

G. 311 deg 38 nm

H. 981 mb

I. 18 C / 1525 m

J. 23 C / 1522 m

K. 19 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF306 0801A ALEX OB 21

MAX FL WIND 68 KT NE QUAD 17:20:30Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 68 KT NE QUAD 17:20:30Z