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Hurricane Alex


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Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)

There are a number of factors affecting Alex which I believe will prevent him from rapidly intensifying. The system has a typical GOM look about it with the majority of convection to its east and some dryer air entraining in from the west. Secondly, the system is very large such that the outer bands are still interacting with land. In my opinion this will make landfall as a cat 1 around 85mph.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Alex has to be one of the most beautiful tropical storms I've ever seen, the banding and arms are just fantastic.

Regardless of what happens with Alex it's a fantastic start.

post-6326-092780700 1277841725_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Stunning image there Iceberg, just shows a tropical cyclone doesn't have to be strong to look beautiful. Another storm that also looked really good was Tropical Storm Cristina from 2008 in the East Pacific, only a 45kt storm:

post-1820-095701500 1277842234_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

Here is a visible and IR satelite images taken 1 and half hours apart

Now i know the difference that will be shown by the two different images but in that 1 1/2 hours the wall does seem to be closing and organisation looks to be improving.

post-5585-018098200 1277844445_thumb.jpgpost-5585-045317900 1277844479_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

Remarkably still a TS. I recommend reading the Forecast Discussion however.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 292035

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

400 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE

IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.2N 94.0W

ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO

ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH

OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO

GRANDE

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. ALEX IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX

WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS

ON WEDNESDAY AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE

WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALEX IS BECOMING BETTER

ORGANIZED....AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOMETIME

TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING CONTINUING UNTIL LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN

TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS

COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...

ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX

ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST

WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS BEGINNING

WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY

AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE

COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE

SURGE COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE

WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR

THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE

WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

000

WTNT41 KNHC 292047

TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

400 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF

981 MB AT 1716 UTC...WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND

SFMR WINDS NEAR 55 KT. SINCE THEN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT

ALEX IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL DEFINED CURVED

CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. THIS

PATTERN YIELDS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND

SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT

IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION NEAR 0000 UTC WILL

FIND THAT ALEX IS A HURRICANE.

ALEX HAS TURNED FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW

310/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST

PHILOSOPHY...AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT

ALEX WILL GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD ON THE

SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE

HAS TURNED LEFT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THIS REQUIRES

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK TO BE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK STILL LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS

MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE ONLY

DYNAMICAL MODEL NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE HWRF. THUS...

THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IF

NECESSARY.

ALEX IS NOW IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES...WHICH APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL

LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE CENTRAL

CONVECTION IS POOR AT THIS TIME...AND LARGE SLOTS BETWEEN THE

CONVECTIVE BANDS SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS STILL

OCCURRING. THE GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF ARE SHOWING MORE

INTENSIFICATION THAN EARLIER...BUT NONE OF THEM FORECAST A PEAK

INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 80 KT. THESE MODELS ARE CLOSE TO THE

SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...SO THERE IS

NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE

FORECAST... IT IS LIKELY THAT ALEX WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF

80-85 KT BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HR FORECAST

POINTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 23.2N 94.0W 60 KT

12HR VT 30/0600Z 23.9N 95.1W 65 KT

24HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 96.5W 75 KT

36HR VT 01/0600Z 24.9N 98.1W 75 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 01/1800Z 25.2N 99.9W 40 KT...INLAND

72HR VT 02/1800Z 25.5N 103.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

96HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg

Hurricane Alex a certaintly now, has an eyewall and a secondary ring of convection sorrounding it, should be an upgrade.

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

As mentioned in the forecast discussion, they're sending recon in so we should know whether Alex is a hurricane by 1am, for us night-dwellers.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

As mentioned in the forecast discussion, they're sending recon in so we should know whether Alex is a hurricane by 1am, for us night-dwellers.

Typical Im working at half 7 so wont be able to catch up till tomorrow night :unsure:

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Presentation of Alex is improving and had it not injested a large amount of dry air into its circulation over the last 24hrs make no doubt about it probably rapidly running up the hurricane scale right now,...

However what we have is the convective bursting over the center, with the convection developing in lines. Its a very unusual presentation to get and I've certainly not seen many systems have that kind of look. Its got a very large broad circulation with high TS force winds a decent distance out for a system of its strength. CDO looks likes its finally developing after struggling to mix out the dry air. Dmax will probably help to promote deep convection and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a weak eye develop over the next 4-6hrs, in fact I'd expect. Small window of possibly just 4-6hrs again for quicker strengthening before the circulation starts to take in more dry air from Mexico.

a spell of fairly quick strengthening is possible and I'm personally still thinking it has time to reach category-2, the NHC mention that it could peak out at 80-85kts which seems reasonable. Personally I think there is still time for it to go even as high as 90kts but anything beyond that is probably highly unlikely now.

System should track close to the west and the upper high looks like its quite strong right now so I wouldn't even rule out a slight south of west track before landfall.

ps, there would be more but my laptop is acting up!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Well he is now a hurricane, so WELCOME HURRICANE ALEX.

A very large pressure drop down to 973mb, before recon was ended due to hardware failure hrs ago, so pressure might be lower now.

Looks like a small 8 mile open eye below, probably with another band behind it at something like 20 miles and then one behind that.

IF Alex had managed t oget some strength into those inner bands we would well have had a major Hurricane by now.

Anyway as Kold says we are starting to get near land now, so very limited possibilities for Alex.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010

A. 30/00:17:20Z

B. 22 deg 57 min N

094 deg 23 min W

C. 850 mb 1191 m

D. 47 kt

E. 293 deg 6 nm

F. 021 deg 52 kt

G. 297 deg 7 nm

H. 973 mb

I. 20 C / 1521 m

J. 22 C / 1523 m

K. 17 C / NA

L. OPEN NW

M. C8

N. 12345 / 08

O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm

P. AF303 1001A ALEX OB 05

MAX FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 00:15:10Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 60 KT SE QUAD 00:19:30Z

;

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

latest update from NHC at 0600Z

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED

BY SATELLITE AND THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE

23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST. ALEX HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY

IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/HR...AND A SLOW

WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO

48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH

THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS BY LATE THIS

AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE

WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO

LANDFALL. ALEX WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER ITS CENTER CROSSES THE

COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175

MILES...280 KM. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...NOAA BUOY 42055

LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF ALEX REPORTED A

ONE-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH AND A GUST TO 58 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Go Alex, go Alex,go Alex!!!!

Seems quite happy with himself ATM......looks bound for areas where low pop so we can enjoy this one to the full!

Anyone got any T.V. feeds for landfall areas?

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

sadly it is impinging on attempts to limit the oil spill and its problems.

see the link below

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/us_and_canada/10456074.stm

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Alex is probably bombing atm.

Pressure has just been recorded as 961mb, so it's lost another 10mb since the last real flight.

Winds are not responding yet through and max flight winds are still only 82kts, however in the last advisory NHC have upped it to 70kts.

If the winds can respond to the pressure we are probably looking at a CAT 3 major hurricane before landfall, but the history of this storms indicates atm that this is unlikely.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010

A. 30/08:42:00Z

B. 23 deg 19 min N

095 deg 00 min W

C. 850 mb 1075 m

D. 71 kt

E. 045 deg 7 nm

F. 123 deg 82 kt

G. 045 deg 10 nm

H. 961 mb

I. 19 C / 1522 m

J. 22 C / 1520 m

K. 19 C / NA

L. OPEN S

M. C10

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF306 1101A ALEX OB 05

MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 08:33:40Z

;

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

The eye of Alex is now in US doppler radar range, we can see it's open to the east still a little and looks weak to the south, but is strong in the north, tight wrap and good circulation, if pressure can reach 960 with a still slightly open eye then it should go deeper when the covection fully wraps around.

Anyway it's making it's way with reasonable progress to the Mexico/US boarder.

post-6326-027179200 1277892790_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Pressure still dropping now sub 960 at 958.7mb, still waiting for winds to respond though.

102600 2319N 09505W 8428 01160 9618 +205 +174 238040 047 042 009 03

102630 2321N 09506W 8432 01138 9596 +215 +177 249019 027 030 006 03

102700 2322N 09507W 8422 01140 9590 +210 +181 238004 008 001 005 03

102730 2324N 09507W 8433 01128 9587 +210 +185 101010 015 999 999 03

102800 2325N 09508W 8433 01130 9590 +211 +190 065021 025 011 006 03

102830 2326N 09510W 8433 01139 9597 +215 +194 050041 048 036 006 00

102900 2327N 09511W 8426 01166 9622 +205 +198 051057 062 056 010 00

102930 2328N 09513W 8429 01189 9653 +198 +198 048070 073 057 014 00

103000 2329N 09514W 8427 01214 9674 +207 +199 046068 070 055 005 00

103030

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

000

WTNT31 KNHC 301140

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010

700 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX MOVING IN NO HURRY......

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.4N 95.3W

ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO

ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO

GRANDE

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. ALEX IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A SLOW WEST TO

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST

OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR

EARLY EVENING...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA

LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND

ALEX COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALEX

WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER ITS CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200

MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42055 LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF ALEX RECENTLY

REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH...86 KM/HR WITH A GUST OF 63

MPH...101 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN

TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS

COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...

ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX

ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST

WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS LATER THIS

MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY

AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST

TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD

PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH

GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...

THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME

SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Steering currents have slackened somewhat unexpectedly, and has meant that Alex has slowed down again. It appears the Upper high isn't as strong as possibly thought by some of the models which means its caught once again in slack conditions with only slow motion. It also means the system is moving WNW at something like 5-7mph. In weak steering currents wobbles are highly likely, esp as the system gets closer to landfall and fricitional effects start to play a part and so we may see some NW wobbles occur as well as some WSW at times, esp if the eyewall strengthens. I'm expecting an eye to pop out soon as well.

The pressure is just amazing for Hurricane Alex, now down to about 959mbs, and even if you use the W Pacific conversion rate (since the WPAC has lower pressures in thier systems) you still are out. Its exceptionally rare to have a sub 960mbs system, only ever been 1 or 2 I believe and whilst the large size of the outer circulation and the lower background pressures do go some way to explaining why the pressure-wind level is so poorly matched, it doesn't go the whole way. Therefore I have to think that sometime soon the winds will have to shot up, esp if it does totally close up the eyewall. Therefore I'm still going to go for a peak of 90kts which is a little higher then the NHC but not by much really.

Recon about to take a pass from the SW-NE, I think they will probably find winds high enough to at least up the winds to 75kts in the NE quadrant but we shall see soon enough, pressure may well have dropped a touch further.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Latest Doppler from about 10 mins ago.

The Small 10mile eye is now closed altough week to the north.

Further bands are aroudn the north but as the centre one strengthens these weaken slightly.

Recon should be due another pass very shortly so we can see what the pressure is now. But sub 950 in the next 6 hrs is very possibly.

The Area between Brownsville and Corpus Christi is getting alot of rainfall, as is the area to the south of Brownsville.

Totally agree Kold, pressure wise this will be a Major Hurricane, wind wise a CAT 2 maybe stratching to a CAT 3 now that the eye is closed in the eye wall.

121230 2334N 09511W 8430 01119 9571 +217 +194 133005 009 004 005 03

121300 2335N 09510W 8428 01121 9571 +215 +199 134020 025 004 005 00

121330 2336N 09509W 8426 01127 9575 +221 +203 134031 036 025 006 00

957 now and falling still.

post-6326-004659900 1277899740_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
  • Location: Warwick and Hull

May be worth noting that the GFDL model shows Alex getting up to 106kts at 35m, although as with all the models i can find at the moment the pressures are still about 10-20mbar too high.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Strong winds in the NE quad just recorded upto 88kts flight winds now, which would even conservatively be 75kts.

121630 2343N 09502W 8435 01237 9720 +184 +184 145087 088 066 010 00

121700 2344N 09501W 8424 01268 9742 +180 +180 146086 087 064 009 00

121730 2345N 09459W 8434 01273 9761 +177 +177 146085 087 062 009 00

121800 2346N 09458W 8426 01295 9773 +187 +180 146085 086 057 009 00

121830 2348N 09457W 8430 01302 9791 +177 +177 148084 085 055 010 00

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I wondered if some folk might be interested in the NOAA info sheet regarding oil and hurricanes?

link below

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanes_oil_factsheet.pdf

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  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

A couple more strong wind speeds recorded.

In the NE section as well as the inner eye wall containing strong CAT 1 winds, there seems to be a outer section approx 80 miles away with CAT 1 winds.

123530 2428N 09412W 8429 01435 9942 +170 +156 148086 088 055 012 00

123600 2429N 09411W 8430 01436 9946 +169 +156 150086 088 052 010 03

123630 2430N 09409W 8431 01438 9948 +169 +155 150085 085 049 008 00

123700 2431N 09408W 8431 01441 9951 +171 +155 149084 085 050 008 00

sadly it is impinging on attempts to limit the oil spill and its problems.

see the link below

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/us_and_canada/10456074.stm

Sorry John missed this earlier. I am not saying that the BBC are wrong but a 1.6M waves caused by Alex in New Orleans would be frankly remarkable.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at1.shtml?gm

At the link above it shows the probability of a 2ft storm surge caused by Alex and it has 0 probability anywhere near the oil spill, let alone 5 ft !.

I can't see it having much effect other than a few more thunderstorms caused by the extensive outflow and maybe a few light gusts upto 20-25 mph.

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