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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Latest BBC Update's mentioning the Dreaded T Word for early hours of the morning in the East and South East.

:(:rofl:

Go onto the BBC Site and click Forecast Video.

We shall see but it would be nice for this hot spell to go out with even a small bang!

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Gosport,Hampshire
  • Location: Gosport,Hampshire

i am keeping my eyes on that system over the cherbourg peninsula

it seems to want come across but needs a helping hand wether or

not something can devlop remains to be seen has anyone got any

ideas on whats gonna or supposed to be happening tonight as its

seems a bit sketchy to me!!:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Latest BBC Update's mentioning the Dreaded T Word for early hours of the morning in the East and South East.

Wont happen , bbc forecasted it :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

Latest BBC Update's mentioning the Dreaded T Word for early hours of the morning in the East and South East.

:):rofl:

Go onto the BBC Site and click Forecast Video.

We shall see but it would be nice for this hot spell to go out with even a small bang!

Paul S

Mr S.

I am surprised at you watching the Beeb website, with it's history of being out of wack :80:

Are you now wishing for something decent??

Come live down here, nowt happens down here, forgottent the last kaboom we had :(

Mind you your in the right place if anything might happen, rather than down here.

Fingers crossed for yah!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I think there is a decent shot at some thunderstorms coming up tonight once the airmass starts to destabalise. I think you maybe far enough east Paul to have some fun and games, once again my location may well end up on the western edge once we take into consideration the easterly adjustments that nearly always seem to happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Lol

Why have we become so pessimistic with our very own Beeb! But I know what everyone is saying, they could not forecast a Shizz up in a Brewery so why believe them tonight.

I am about 90% confidant something can cross the channel tonight as the de-stabalisation begins in earnest from 21z. Thinking Darren might be pretty much bang on with London being the furthest West, but there is no reason why something might not hit the Pompey area and head up towards the West of London through towards Oxon etc

Pretty Wet and Dismal start to tomorrow across the East all the way towards Lincs as well by the looks of the Models - Just cant wait to see some rain

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

Lol

Why have we become so pessimistic with our very own Beeb! But I know what everyone is saying, they could not forecast a Shizz up in a Brewery so why believe them tonight.

I am about 90% confidant something can cross the channel tonight as the de-stabalisation begins in earnest from 21z. Thinking Darren might be pretty much bang on with London being the furthest West, but there is no reason why something might not hit the Pompey area and head up towards the West of London through towards Oxon etc

Pretty Wet and Dismal start to tomorrow across the East all the way towards Lincs as well by the looks of the Models - Just cant wait to see some rain

Paul S

I hope your right about the pompey area, i think my side of the Island might just far enough easwards to see at least some distant lightning my fingers are crossed.

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Reasonably promising for some hefty showers tonight in the SE (Kent/Sussex leading up through Essex)

The doorway opens at approximately 00z Monday, as surface (ish) stability decreases with a forecast upward motion of the lower layer of air forecasting to begin to rise:

post-5986-025463400 1278862057_thumb.png

The same is true further up at 700hPa - although this time, for quite a small area, and for a small time, it looks quite vigorous:

post-5986-090278000 1278862129_thumb.png

There is no CAPE (left?) to talk of, but LI still remains negative:

post-5986-052215100 1278862183_thumb.png

However, with no CAPE, and the lack of a Ddd (very moist all the way up), and the best action looking to be well after dark, I suspect these will be heavy showers. Very interesting that it does open a door from Northern France - with instability all the way across the Channel, and if there's any action, it will almost certainly be French imports.

According to me very own wobble index, there is a 61.54% chance of all hell breaking loose. In the real world, and not in VP world, take a constant 15-20% off this value to get a reasonable reading.

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Posted
  • Location: Gosport,Hampshire
  • Location: Gosport,Hampshire

i hope your right stormyking im not far behind you lol i might go on top of the hill or down the beach in

the hope of seeing a flash or two (of lightning that is!:rofl:)

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

I'll do a quick update when the 12z is fully out - didn't realise the time, sorry - the last post is all based on the 6z.

EDIT: just had a quick peek, and it's looks to no avail at the moment :rofl: Still looking forward to the rain :(

Edited by VillagePlank
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Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich

Lol

Why have we become so pessimistic with our very own Beeb! But I know what everyone is saying, they could not forecast a Shizz up in a Brewery so why believe them tonight.

I am about 90% confidant something can cross the channel tonight as the de-stabalisation begins in earnest from 21z. Thinking Darren might be pretty much bang on with London being the furthest West, but there is no reason why something might not hit the Pompey area and head up towards the West of London through towards Oxon etc

Pretty Wet and Dismal start to tomorrow across the East all the way towards Lincs as well by the looks of the Models - Just cant wait to see some rain

Paul S

Aside from tonight's potential event, I am actually looking forward to tomorrow - temperatures struggling to get into the twenties, accompanied by a cold wind and rain to wash away the pollen. A nice refreshing break from the 3 H's (heat, humidity and hayfever)

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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk

Lol

Why have we become so pessimistic with our very own Beeb! But I know what everyone is saying, they could not forecast a Shizz up in a Brewery so why believe them tonight.

I am about 90% confidant something can cross the channel tonight as the de-stabalisation begins in earnest from 21z. Thinking Darren might be pretty much bang on with London being the furthest West, but there is no reason why something might not hit the Pompey area and head up towards the West of London through towards Oxon etc

Pretty Wet and Dismal start to tomorrow across the East all the way towards Lincs as well by the looks of the Models - Just cant wait to see some rain

Paul S

Hi Paul, there's been just one rumble of thunder here in my part of E.Suffolk all year so am hoping we get something tonight, what do you think Suffolk's propsects are like for storms? It definitely looks like we will get some much needed rain but do you think the stuff coming up will be electrified and if so why? Having looked at the charts recently posted there doesn't seem to be much CAPE about so in the absence of CAPE what will give us our storms?

Cheers

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

i am keeping my eyes on that system over the cherbourg peninsula

it seems to want come across but needs a helping hand wether or

not something can devlop remains to be seen has anyone got any

ideas on whats gonna or supposed to be happening tonight as its

seems a bit sketchy to me!!:(

That baby is heading for Eastbourne, you'll be as out of luck as we are here in Poole :rofl:

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Posted
  • Location: West London - ASL 36.85m/120ft
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/stormy
  • Location: West London - ASL 36.85m/120ft

French imports.

Yeah rite . We won't get anything from them... I wonder if storms have a passport?

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Posted
  • Location: West London - ASL 36.85m/120ft
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/stormy
  • Location: West London - ASL 36.85m/120ft

That rain below ireland has 200 cape...

I wonder if it will move east?

Edited by Vortex_Liam
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

A few weak cells are trying to cross the Channel right now but right now the atmosphere is still a little too stable to get going to any strong degree with only moderate showers keeping themself going.

I agree with VP/PS, things will get going in the late eveing hours over the channel and will move over the SE portion of the country...

Yeah those cells are really weakening now they are crossing the Channel with its slightly lower lapse rates.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Ok then a 12z update (for Kent/Sussex)

The vertical motion of the atmosphere is the least promising it's been for days:

post-5986-076260800 1278863844_thumb.gifpost-5986-016487700 1278863861_thumb.gif

Still, looks OK, I guess, away from the ground. There's some hope with the vorticity advection charts which implies the movement of part of a surface low moving into the S/E:

post-5986-030156500 1278864015_thumb.gif

Looks unstable-ish. However, where previously LI was clipping this region, it is now forecast to be absent:

post-5986-058748800 1278864037_thumb.gif

And the temperature movement indicates nothing of interest:

post-5986-028947200 1278864114_thumb.gifpost-5986-001810800 1278864164_thumb.gif

Not looking promising for the Kent, I must say - looks wet, but not much else, and after dark the lack of temperature movement will kill the top of any storms that make it. Possible odd bang or flash, but few and far between.

Still, large parts of the Midlands looks interesting for ruch hour:

post-5986-007149100 1278864526_thumb.gif

Edited by VillagePlank
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Yeah rite . We won't get anything from them... I wonder if storms have a passport?

French storms do have a passport tonight...0-:

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Think there's chance of the odd rumble of thunder across the SE tonight/tomorrow morning as embedded mid-level convection develops on western edge of the a warm moist plume advecting NE across the far SE. This warm moist air still hangs on close the SE, despite the weak cold front moving through earlier today, a frontal wave/low forms over the East English Channel tonight along the western edge of the plume in response to sharpening upper trough moving in from the west and increasing SW'erly winds aloft. If nothing, there will at least be some much needed heavy rain to water the parched grass across parts of England.

Wednesday and Thursday looks more interesting for a widespread storm potential as well-modified moist rPm airmass moves in from the SW as low pressure moves over the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

... a frontal wave/low forms over the East English Channel tonight along the western edge of the plume in response to sharpening upper trough moving in from the west and increasing winds aloft.

Yeah - I noticed this feature, but the spacing seems a little too far apart at 850hPa, and might not link nicely enough with the vertical motion expected at 700hPa?

post-5986-091149900 1278869342_thumb.gif

Saying that, though - me bad - it gets better, towards 6am:

post-5986-097918400 1278869611_thumb.gif

Edited by VillagePlank
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Yeah - I noticed this feature, but the spacing seems a little too far apart at 850hPa, and might not link nicely enough with the vertical motion expected at 700hPa?

post-5986-091149900 1278869342_thumb.gif

There looks to be plenty of vertical motion towards the SE just ahead of the upper trough moving in from the west, SW'erly upper winds will be strongest here too as the low-level jet cranks up on the forward side of the trough. Poor lapse rates may inhibit strong convection needed for storms if vertical lift is not strong enough though. Bit pessimistic about much happening other than some heavy rain - but models, especially GFS, never handle instability too well in these situations.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

My gut feeling is really very negative...that is quite often a good thing though, lol!!

I was in Dymchurch yesterday and today, and to be honest I wish I was there tonight...regrettably, after much sun burn and much heat, I'm back home in old Blighty!

I am a little surprised nothing much has fired over France/Benelux as yet - this was always likely to be a late starter, but am rather surprised nothing has kicked off yet. Am encouraged some what by the fact the forecast LP could steer something our way - yesterday, the winds were coming from a pronounced SW where as today appear to be more southerly (presumably the LP starting to wind up).

Quite like the fact that we hinge on a developing LP - developing Lows always have a tendency to be rather unpredictable - the slightest deviation from the models' predictions could mean we get nothing (which I don't think we'd be overly surprised at), OR, could mean we get a fair bit more than expected.

Very much a case of waiting and seeing...hopefully, hearing too :yahoo:

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