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August CET


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The 18z would have us at around 15.5C by the 7th.

Could the 1st be the months high point?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The 18z would have us at around 15.5C by the 7th.

Could the 1st be the months high point?

Certainly the model outputs out to 240 hours are very cool for the time of year. I do not want to sound like a cold ramper but on the basis of the the model ouputs for the first ten days, we may have our best chance of seeing the coolest August since at least 1993 (sub 15C).

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The thermal peak occurs on the 12th August statistically. Certainly the 1st-5th August should average well below average, however models differ afterward. If we are below 16C for the 1st-10th, we have a good shout of a below average month.

Jackone, out of interest what did your head say?

I probably would have gone very slightly above average at 16.3c, but I want a nice warm August. :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

Im going for 16.8c, a rather cool start to the month this week with fresh atlantic winds and variable amounts of sunshine, high pressure staying southwest next week but much warmer humid weather will mean it will be a lot like July, rather grey but warm and humid and then the high moving east around the 13-16th to give a spell of warm settled weather though the atlantic starting to power up towards the end of the month meaning more variable conditions.

Certaintly don't think it can be as grim as July, if so then its up there with 2007 and 2008 for poor summers here.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

14.9C: Richard R

14.9C: Snowing Man

15.0C: Optimus Prime

15.0C: Summer Blizzard

15.6C: Foz Foster

15.6C: Atlantic Flamethrower

15.7C: Reef

15.7C: Snow Plough - 10 point deduction

15.8C: Barry

15.8C: Stu_London

15.8C: Dave H Sug

15.9C: Na Damanta Sam

15.9C: Terminal Moraine

15.9C: Storm Mad 26

16.0C: Tony H

16.0C: Thundery Wintry Showers

16.1C: Mike Meehan

16.1C: Glacier Point

16.2C: Pjb 120

16.2C: The Watcher

16.2C: Aderyn Coch

16.3C: Gavin P

16.3C: Blizzards

16.4C: Ben_Cambs

16.4C: Stew Fox

16.4C: Damian Slaw

16.4C: Polar Side

16.5C: Koppite

16.5C: Croation Weather

16.5C: Mr Data

16.5C: David Snow

16.5C: Duncan McAlister

16.6C: Fozi 999

16.6C: Milhouse

16.6C: Don

16.6C: Kentish Man

16.7C: Paul T

16.7C: Mark Bayley

16.7C: Coram

16.7C: Norrance

16.7C: Dr Hosking - 20 point deduction

16.8C: Steve B

16.8C: Snowstorm 1

16.8C: Deep Snow Please

16.8C: Conor 123 - 10 point deduction

16.9C: Pete Tattum

16.9C: Jack Wales

16.9C: Snowmaiden

16.9C: Sufc

17.0C: The PIT

17.0C: Mk13

17.0C: Jackone

17.1C: Stargazer

17.1C: Artic Fox

17.2C: Virtual Sphere

17.3C: Roger J Smith

17.5C: Bottesford

17.7C: Backtrack

17.8C: Sunlover

18.2C: Polar Gael

18.7C: Shuggee

18.9C: Fine Wine

20.0C: Craig Evans

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Hadley has the CET as 17.0C to the 1st.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

You have me down twice the SB. The 15.9C is my guess :D

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

16.6C to the 2nd

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Minimum for today is down as 10.2C, maxes probably around 21C or so probably 16.3C or 16.4C for tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

16.6C to the 2nd

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Minimum for today is down as 10.2C, maxes probably around 21C or so probably 16.3C or 16.4C for tomorrow.

Looks like the cet is already lower than at any point during July then, models are divergant, however the general theme until the 10th seems to be a northerly of some sort. I would be pretty confident of the CET being below 16C by the 10th.

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Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

Damn How Late Is This But 16.2C Ive been on holiday thats why im so late :)

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

16.3 to the 3rd.

slightly warmer night being offset by cooler daytime temps today, so another slight dip likely tomorrow.

Yup, maxes look very low today. Could be 16.0C by tomorrow, 15.7C Friday and possibly under 15.5C by Saturday.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Yup, maxes look very low today. Could be 16.0C by tomorrow, 15.7C Friday and possibly under 15.5C by Saturday.

Indeed, tonight and tommorow night also look quite chilly. Looking ahead, all models agree on cool weather for the next seven days before the divergance between GFS and ECWMF becomes apparent. Looks like the 1st-10th will average in the early 15's.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Indeed, tonight and tommorow night also look quite chilly. Looking ahead, all models agree on cool weather for the next seven days before the divergance between GFS and ECWMF becomes apparent. Looks like the 1st-10th will average in the early 15's.

Certainly looking like ending up a notably cool first week of August relative to average. This is when yearly maxims reach their annual peak, not this year. Will be a struggle to see any other than a slightly above average CET I feel.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Bang on average, 16.1c -0.0c to the 4th

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Bang on average, 16.1c -0.0c to the 4th

Certainly looking an interesting month in regards to the CET. All models agree on a downward trend to the 11th, so if we average a 0.1C drop each day (reasonable given fluctuations), then that puts the CET at 15.5C to the 11th. Afterward, there is divergance caused by TS Colin however both ECWMF and GFS agree on a northerly in the 10-15 day timeframe.

A CET below 15C by mid month anyone??

A little trivia, but if we could get a final CET of 14.4C (coolest for 20 odd years), then we would have a below average summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

A little trivia, but if we could get a final CET of 14.4C (coolest for 20 odd years), then we would have a below average summer.

Yes, it just goes to show how the CET can be misleading!

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Certainly looking an interesting month in regards to the CET. All models agree on a downward trend to the 11th, so if we average a 0.1C drop each day (reasonable given fluctuations), then that puts the CET at 15.5C to the 11th. Afterward, there is divergance caused by TS Colin however both ECWMF and GFS agree on a northerly in the 10-15 day timeframe.

A CET below 15C by mid month anyone??

A little trivia, but if we could get a final CET of 14.4C (coolest for 20 odd years), then we would have a below average summer.

The rolling 10 year average for the final 3rd of the month (21Aug-31Aug) is 15.9C. The warmest year was 2008 (16.8C) and the coolest 2007 (15.2C).

Statistically, unless we have a massive heatwave mid month, anyone who guessed above average is struggling. Equally we can say that a sub 15C August remains the remotest of possibilities.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

The 06z is showing some fairly high daytime temperatures for Sunday and Monday in the south. If so then it could be just enough to prevent further falls before it turns cooler next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

The rolling 10 year average for the final 3rd of the month (21Aug-31Aug) is 15.9C. The warmest year was 2008 (16.8C) and the coolest 2007 (15.2C).

Statistically, unless we have a massive heatwave mid month, anyone who guessed above average is struggling. Equally we can say that a sub 15C August remains the remotest of possibilities.

Nonsense only 5 days gone just needs a series of mild nights and low mid twenties and the average will rise very quickly. Nature doesn't listen to stats in a book.

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

A little trivia, but if we could get a final CET of 14.4C (coolest for 20 odd years), then we would have a below average summer.

That would also mean an August will be cooler than both the June and July in the same summer since 1993.

Edited by Craig Evans
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